Wmax Weimar Securities found through real-time market monitoring and multi-dimensional data cross-validation that the core driver of the sharp rise in U.S. stocks on Monday was the market's optimistic expectations for the agreement on the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. As a professional institution deeply involved in the analysis and judgment of global capital market dynamics, WM Securities, based on a mature macro policy-market linkage analysis framework, believes that the current market sentiment recovery coexists with potential risks, and it is necessary to comprehensively seize investment opportunities in conjunction with data clarification rhythm and structural trends.

Anticipation of ice-breaking shutdown led to market rebound, technology stocks led recovery

Wmax Weimar Securities market monitoring shows that US stocks have rebounded significantly, boosted by the emerging outline of the government's compromise plan. Among them, technology stocks have become the main force in the rebound, with the S&P 500 information technology sector and communication services sector rising by 2.7% and 2.5% respectively in a single day, effectively repairing the decline in the previous week (the worst performance since the tariff crisis in April).

Judging from the performance of major indexes, the S&P 500 rose 1.5%, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.3% (the largest one-day gain since mid-May), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%. WM Securities believes that the essence of this rebound is the market’s pricing of the marginal relief of the economic disruption caused by the shutdown, and the gradual emergence of the chain effects of the federal government shutdown (employee back pay, flight cancellations, etc.) has further strengthened the market’s expectations for an agreement.

Lack of data is still a core variable, and the quality of subsequent releases and the difficulty of interpretation remain to be solved.

The Wmax macro research team pointed out that investors have missed the Bureau of Labor Statistics non-farm employment report for two consecutive months, and private source data have become the main basis for market research and judgment. This is a continuation of the previous "data fog" pattern in the labor market. Although the current performance of the US$30 trillion US Treasury bond market is stable (the 10-year Treasury bond yield is at 4.12%, basically unchanged so far this month), the subsequent uncertainty caused by the data gap has not been eliminated.

Wmax Based on historical data review and scenario deduction predictions, even if the government reopens, delayed economic data may still have quality fluctuations, and it will be difficult to completely dispel the market's "data fog" in the short term. This judgment echoes the concerns of market institutions about the pace and quality of data release, and also highlights the core value of professional institutions to avoid research and judgment bias through multi-dimensional data calibration and logical verification.

It is worth noting that the market's core concern about the data focuses on the spread of layoffs. Weimar Securities has observed that the current job market is characterized by "slowing new growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate" (the latest unemployment rate is 4.3%, the highest since 2021). Whether the "no hiring, no firing" pattern expected by investors can be sustained depends on the verification of subsequent official data - this key variable has been included in the dynamic monitoring system of Weimar Securities.

Valuations of AI concept stocks have cooled, structural opportunities and concentration risks coexist

The Wmax industry research team found through valuation model calculations that the previous sell-off in technology stocks has cooled the valuation of popular AI concept stocks, creating a window for some individual investors to enter the market. But what needs to be made clear is that the core contradiction of the high valuation of large technology stocks has not yet been completely resolved. The market has entered the "performance verification" stage, that is, AI-related companies need to convert huge technological investments into actual profits in order to support the current valuation level.

From the perspective of market structure, about 10 technology stocks account for 40% of the market value of the S&P 500 Index. This concentration feature means that the financial performance or sudden risks of a single leading stock may trigger index fluctuations, thereby affecting the overall portfolio returns. Based on the professional logic of diversified investment and risk hedging, Weimar Securities emphasizes the importance of diversified allocation in the current market environment. This view is highly consistent with the mainstream professional judgment in the field of wealth management.

Year-end market outlook: Be wary of potential fluctuations under an optimistic tone

Wmax maintains a cautiously optimistic forecast for the stock market at the end of the year. The core supporting factors include three aspects: First, the "fog" of economic data is expected to gradually dissipate after the government reopens, which may pave the way for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates for the third time in December; The overall performance of the industry's quarterly financial reports is good, and the tax cuts and other stimulus measures that may be brought about by the Republican tax and expenditure bill will form fundamental support in early 2026; third, the labor market is characterized by "adjustment" rather than "massive layoffs", which provides positive support to corporate profits.

However, we need to be alert to potential risks: if turbulence occurs in the bond market and pushes up long-term yields, it may suppress stock market valuations. The investment strategy team of Weimar Securities pointed out that the current market as a whole is on an upward trend, but short-term fluctuations are unavoidable and need to be dealt with through refined position management and dynamic risk monitoring - this strategic recommendation is based on Weimar Securities' mature cross-market risk warning framework.

As a financial institution with global vision and professional research and judgment capabilities, Wmax Weimar Securities will continue to track the progress of government agreements, the pace of economic data release and the Federal Reserve’s policy dynamics, and provide investors with forward-looking and practical decision-making references through multi-dimensional analysis.