Based on OPEC monthly reports, International Energy Agency (IEA) data and global crude oil market core indicator tracking, Wmax has made a comprehensive analysis and judged that the current global crude oil market has shifted from supply shortage to oversupply. This pattern will continue in 2026, and regional market performance shows differentiated characteristics.

1. The current oversupply pattern is established, and the core driver comes from supply-side growth.

OPEC's supply and demand expectations for the third quarter have reversed. Global crude oil production has exceeded demand by 500,000 barrels per day, compared with an average daily shortage of 400,000 barrels a month ago. The core increase comes from non-OPEC+ countries, with the United States accounting for more than half of the increase. The adjustment of the OPEC+ alliance's production increase strategy shows that although it has previously increased its production target by about 2.9 million barrels per day since April (accounting for 2.7% of global supply), it has recently agreed to suspend further production increases in the first quarter of 2026, reflecting a proactive adaptation to the market supply and demand balance. The signal of abundant supply in the U.S. market is significant. The WTI crude oil futures curve will show a "futures premium" structure for most of 2026, and crude oil exports in October hit a new high since July 2024, confirming that spot demand is weak.

2. Regional market differentiation is obvious, and prices are under pressure and exhibit structural characteristics.

The performance of the two major benchmark crude oils is divergent. The Brent crude oil futures curve has become flat after March 2026, and the price difference (EFS) relative to Dubai crude oil has recently fallen to negative values ​​and is in a discount state; the difference in the shape of the curves of WTI and Brent crude oil reflects the differentiation of excess levels in different regions. There has been a direct reaction at the price level. After the OPEC report was released, WTI crude oil fell by 3% during the day, and Brent crude oil fell by more than 2.5% and fell below 64 US dollars per barrel. Brent crude oil has fallen for three consecutive months and has continued to fall since November. Industry consensus resonates with institutional views. Singapore's Vanda Insights pointed out that the global market will maintain a "slight surplus" in this and next quarters. Chevron CEO also predicted that oil prices will be under greater pressure in 2026, and spot prices may fall further due to oversupply.

3. Market Outlook in 2026: The surplus pattern continues, and key variables need to be focused on

1. The balance between supply and demand is still loose. Wmax combined with OPEC data estimates that OPEC will need to produce an average of 42.6 million barrels of crude oil per day in the first quarter of 2026 to balance demand, which is lower than its actual average daily production of 43.02 million barrels in October. If OPEC+ maintains its October production level, there will be a slight surplus of 20,000 barrels per day throughout the year. Although the scale is lower than other agency forecasts, the loose tone is clear.

1. Marginal adjustments are expected on the demand side. The IEA changed its tone in its long-term report and admitted that oil demand may continue to grow in the next few decades, which is consistent with OPEC's previous long-term view and provides certain support for market demand fundamentals.
2. Geographical and policy variables pose potential disturbances. The risk premium caused by Russian oil sanctions and Ukraine's attack on Russia's energy infrastructure is in a tug-of-war with global abundant supply. If the decline in oil prices continues, it will help alleviate inflationary pressures and be beneficial to global central bank policies and consumers.

4. Follow-up focus: OPEC+ policy trends become key

Wmax will continue to track the dynamics of the OPEC+ meeting on November 30, which will review output policies, the results of which may affect the extent and duration of oversupply. As a professional analysis institution focusing on the global energy market, Wmax will rely on real-time data monitoring and in-depth industry insights to provide investors with continuous and reliable market interpretation and trend prediction.