Entering December 2025, the pricing logic of safe-haven assets in the global financial market is undergoing phased adjustments. Although specific price points fluctuate daily, structural trends have clearly emerged: the strategic value of gold as a non-sovereign credit asset continues to be revalued, and its driving factors are shifting from short-term hedging to the evolution of the medium- and long-term monetary system. Wmax The market observation team sorts out the current market consensus and disagreement based on recent public data and policy signals.

Central bank gold purchases enter normalization stage

According to a report released by the World Gold Council (WGC) on December 10, global central bank net purchases of gold reached 290 tons in the third quarter of 2025, and the total in the first three quarters exceeded 850 tons. Although it is slightly lower than the peak in 2023-2024, it is still in the historically high range. China, India, Türkiye and Middle Eastern countries are the main buyers.

It is worth noting that this round of gold purchases has gone beyond the traditional "diversification of foreign exchange reserves" and is more of an active strategic adjustment to reduce reliance on the US dollar settlement system. In their official statements, many central banks clearly mentioned "enhancing the security of reserve assets" and "responding to geo-financial risks", indicating that gold is shifting from a "passive holding" to an "active anchoring" role.

Monetary policy is expected to be cautious and loose

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its December interest rate meeting, but the dot plot shows that the median expectation for an interest rate cut in 2026 is two 25 basis points, which is more dovish than the September forecast. Chairman Powell emphasized at the press conference: "Inflation has made progress, but more evidence is needed to confirm the trend." At the same time, the U.S. core PCE rose 2.7% year-on-year in November, falling for the fifth consecutive month, strengthening market expectations for a policy shift.

Although interest rate cuts have not yet started, the actual interest rate (10-year TIPS yield) has fallen by about 40 basis points from the high point during the year, providing support for non-interest-bearing assets. Historical experience shows that gold often performs strongest in the stage of "expectations for interest rate cuts rise - the first interest rate cut is implemented", and the current market is in the early stages of this window.

Geographical risk premium structurally rises

Factors such as the interruption of Red Sea shipping, the protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the tense situation in the Taiwan Strait have continued to disrupt the security of global supply chains and energy transportation costs. Although it has not triggered a comprehensive crisis, "low-intensity, long-term" geopolitical friction has become the new normal.

Against this background, institutional investors' demand for hedging tail risks has increased. CFTC position data shows that as of mid-December, COMEX gold non-commercial net long positions have rebounded by more than 35% from the October low, and ETF funds have also ended their continuous outflow trend. This shows that professional funds are incorporating gold into long-term portfolio defensive allocations, rather than just doing event-driven trading.

Market Divergence: Soft Landing vs Credit Rerating

The current main disagreement lies in the judgment of the U.S. economic prospects:

Optimists believe that the job market is stable and consumption is highly resilient, and the economy is expected to achieve a "no-landing" or moderate soft landing, limiting the space for interest rate cuts; cautious parties point out that the fiscal deficit rate continues to be higher than 8%, debt/GDP is approaching 130%, coupled with the acceleration of global de-dollarization, the US dollar's credit foundation is experiencing structural weakening.

If the former prevails, gold may fluctuate at high levels; if the logic of the latter strengthens, the gold price center may move up systematically. The market is currently performing "probability weighting" through position adjustments rather than unilateral bets.

Conclusion: Pay attention to logical evolution rather than point games

The year-end market is often affected by liquidity seasonality, position rebalancing and policy window periods, and fluctuations may be amplified. Wmax Market Watch recommends users to pay attention to three major signals:

Whether the U.S. employment and inflation data will continue to slow down moderately; whether major central banks (especially emerging markets) will maintain a high pace of gold purchases; whether there will be an inflection point of escalation or easing of geopolitical conflicts.

The real opportunity lies not in chasing highs, but in understanding the trust repricing mechanism behind asset prices.