Not only look at the rate of return, but also look at who can survive the storm

Not only look at the rate of return, but also look at who can survive the storm

In WMAX's copy trading community, thousands of users face the same problem every day: Which trader should they choose? The vast majority of novices will be attracted by labels such as "50% monthly income" and "double myth", but ignore the huge risks behind them. Real professional fund managers will never only look at the yield rate when selecting traders. Today, we will disclose the screening logic of WMAX backend and teach you how to use it like a FOF (Fund of Funds) manager on Wall Street.Win rate, Sharpe ratio, maximum drawdown and historical stabilityThese four core indicators can screen out the true master who can survive the storm in the mixed market.

1. Winning rate: Don’t be fooled by “fake masters”

The first thing we need to look at iswinning rate, that is, the proportion of profitable transactions to the total number of transactions. Many people mistakenly believe that the higher the winning rate, the better, and even pursue a winning rate of more than 90%. This is actually a huge misunderstanding. In the data analysis of WMAX, we found that many strategies with ultra-high winning rates (such as scalping strategies) are often accompanied by the characteristics of "making small money and losing big money". They may make 100 trades and earn $100, but one loss may throw back all the money they made in the previous 99 trades.

The professional screening criteria are"The balance between winning rate and profit-loss ratio". For most prudent traders, a 40%-60% winning rate coupled with a higher profit-loss ratio (Risk-Reward Ratio) is often more sustainable than a 90% winning rate. On the trader details page of WMAX, be sure to also check the ratio of "average profit" and "average loss". If a trader's winning rate is only 45%, but his average profit is three times his average loss, then he is still a valuable follower. Remember, what we are looking for is a sniper that can make stable profits in the long term, not a machine gun that only shoots "mosquitoes".

2. Maximum retracement: the “ballast stone” to ride through the storm

If the rate of return is a trader's offensive ability, thenmaximum drawdownIt's his defensive bottom line. This is also the most important part of the WMAX screening mechanism. The maximum drawdown refers to the maximum decline in the account equity from the highest point to the lowest point. Suppose a trader's account rises from US$10,000 to US$20,000, and then drops back to US$12,000, then his maximum drawdown is 40%. This means that if you follow it at its highest point, you may face a 40% floating loss.

Professional fund managers will strictly limit this value. At WMAX, we recommend that you give priority to the maximum drawdown control within15%-25%traders within. More importantly, it depends on the speed of retracement and repair. Although some traders have a large retracement, they can make money back quickly (V-shaped recovery); some traders fail to recover (L-shaped recession).“It’s not just about the rate of return, but also about who can survive the storm.”The gold content of this sentence lies in the maximum retracement data. A trader who can control the retracement in extreme market conditions (such as non-farm payrolls and the outbreak of war) is the captain of "Noah's Ark" worthy of entrustment.

3. Sharpe Ratio: The golden yardstick for measuring “cost-effectiveness”

This is an indicator that sounds very professional, but is actually very useful -Sharpe Ratio. It was proposed by Nobel Prize winner William Sharpe and is used to measure the excess return that can be obtained for each unit of risk taken. Simply put, it’s the “value for money” of the transaction.

The calculation formula is: (annualized rate of return – risk-free interest rate) / annualized volatility. For ordinary users, you only need to remember a simple criterion: a Sharpe ratio greater than 1 is generally considered acceptable, greater than 2 is considered excellent, and greater than 3 is excellent. If a trader has a high return rate but a low Sharpe ratio, it means that his return is achieved by taking huge risks. This strategy is like walking on a tightrope and may fall off at any time. In WMAX, by looking at the Sharpe ratio, you can quickly filter out those gamblers who "risk their lives" and find those smart traders who truly know how to exchange minimal risks for maximum returns.

4. Historical Stability: Beware of “Meteors” and “Stars”

The last dimension ishistorical stability. Many traders suddenly reach the top of the rankings in one month, but disappear the next month. This "shooting star" is called the "Holy Grail of the Month" in the industry. WMAX firmly opposes this short-termism. We recommend that you lengthen the observation period and check the trader's performance curve for at least 3 months, 6 months or even 1 year.

In WMAX's chart analysis tool, you can see whether the trader's equity curve is smooth and upward. A steady upward curve at a 45-degree angle is far more valuable than a jagged curve with big ups and downs. At the same time, pay attention to traders’"Correlation between the Funding Curve and the Market". If a trader can still maintain positive returns or minimal retracements when the market plummets (such as when a banking crisis breaks out), it shows that he has extremely strong macro hedging capabilities. This stability through bulls and bears is the foundation of long-term compound interest.

Conclusion:

Screening traders is as much an art as a science. Don't be fooled by the glamor on the surface. Please read the data with a calm mind like a professional fund manager. Open WMAX and use the four-dimensional screening method you learned today to find the person at the helm who can truly lead you through the market storm and move forward steadily in the turbulent waves. Remember, in this market, living long is the prerequisite for making money quickly.



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