The same set of methods, put into different market conditions, may have completely opposite results: the method of following the trend will be stopped repeatedly in the shock range, and the method of selling high and buying low will easily go against the trend when encountering unilateral market conditions. The market status is not a label affixed after the fact, but a judgment that should be made before opening a position. This article discusses the identification of market status, method matching and tool support for readers' reference.

1. Two states, two sets of logic

Trend status refers to the price continuing to move in one direction, with high and low points rising or falling in an orderly manner; the corresponding logic is to find entry along the direction, allowing profits to unfold with the fluctuations, and the holding time is relatively long. The oscillation state refers to the price swinging repeatedly within the range, with unclear direction; the corresponding logic is to operate in reverse at both ends of the range, not to be greedy, and to close the market in a timely manner. The cost of using the wrong logic is very direct: if you chase the rise and the fall in the shock, you will be swept back and forth; if you frequently buy the bottom and the top in the trend, you will either fail to hold the order or fall into passiveness prematurely.

2. How to judge the current status

Judgment can start from several observable angles: first, the structure of high and low points, whether the recent highs and lows are rising or falling in sequence; second, the arrangement and slope of the moving averages, whether the short, medium and long term moving averages are diverging or converging, and whether the direction is clear; third, the amplitude and running speed of fluctuations, whether the movement amplitude per unit time is amplified, and whether the market continues to advance; fourth, whether the range boundaries are clear, and whether the price quickly falls back or rebounds after touching the upper and lower edges. The judgment does not need to be precise, vague correctness is enough. The key is to give a state hypothesis before opening a position, and then choose a method based on this hypothesis.

3. The method must match the status

Trend status: Prefer to buy on pullbacks or follow the trend, place stop loss outside the structural position, use moving take profit to protect existing profits, and avoid rushing to close out the slightest floating profit. Shock state: Prefer to participate in light positions at both ends of the range, set the target on the opposite side of the range, do not chase breakthroughs, and shorten the holding time. Equally important is the handling of state switching: when the originally judged state is falsified, for example, when the shock range is effectively broken through, the position held at the old rhythm should be exited first and re-evaluated, rather than holding on. Admitting "I looked at the wrong state" is often more common and more critical than admitting "I looked at the wrong direction".

4. Status judgment itself can also be wrong.

No indicator can 100% distinguish between trends and shocks, and judgment is essentially probabilistic. There are three possible ways to deal with it: one is to leave room for the position and proactively reduce the position when the status is unclear; the other is to use rules to confirm, such as waiting for the price to effectively stand or fall below the key level before determining the status, rather later; the third is to set invalidation conditions and write "what happens to indicate that my judgment is wrong" when opening a position. The value of status judgment does not lie in prediction, but in providing a basis for method selection and allowing errors to have boundaries.

5. How tools support status judgment

Taking Wmax Broker as an example, the multi-period chart facilitates the use of daily periods to determine the overall status, and then uses smaller periods to find entry positions; the display of multiple varieties on the same screen helps to observe the current environment in combination with related varieties such as the US dollar index; the price reminder function can promptly notify when key positions are breached, reducing reliance on market tracking; the simulation account is suitable for practicing the process of "judging status, matching methods, and accepting falsification" several times before the actual offer. It should be noted that the tool provides conditions for observation and execution, and the status judgment itself still depends on the trader himself. When selecting a platform, factors such as regulatory qualifications and deposit and withdrawal procedures should also be taken into consideration.

Conclusion

Market status is the prerequisite for method selection. Distinguishing trends and shocks is not to predict the market more accurately, but to make every move based on the appropriate method and to know how to exit when the judgment is wrong. Determine the status first, then discuss methods, and finally execute. If the order is correct, the transaction will be one less confrontation with the market.

风险提示: Transactions such as precious metals and CFDs have leverage effects, and price fluctuations may result in losses exceeding the principal. Traders should make prudent decisions based on their own risk tolerance. This article does not constitute investment advice.