The escalation of U.S. sanctions against Russia has caused a sharp drop in energy revenue by one-fifth. The discount of Urals crude oil has widened to a record low of $24/barrel, and Russia's fiscal deficit has soared. CTA algorithmic traders suffered record losses for the third consecutive year, and the reversal in 2026 will face the test of geopolitical fluctuations. Investors need to pay attention to the three core nodes of Russian export dynamics, Federal Reserve policy and CTA position adjustment.