PCE inflation hit a three-year high of 3.8% in April, but the drop in Warsh's preferred censored average inflation indicator to 2.3% has significant statistical bias and systematically underestimates true inflation. This indicator excludes items with the highest increase of 31% in an environment where tariffs promote general price increases, forming a false moderate signal. Disagreements within the FOMC have intensified, with hawks still the mainstream. 85% of economists believe that interest rates will remain unchanged before the third quarter, and restarting interest rate increases may become a policy option.