The U.S. dollar index will fall by 8% in 2025 to establish a weak pattern. The Fed's interest rate cut expectations and seasonal weakness will create medium and long-term pressure. Although U.S. GDP in the third quarter exceeded expectations by 4.3%, the potential growth rate was only 2% and there is a risk of downward revision. In 2026, the layout will focus on three major directions: commodities/energy, cyclical assets and small-cap stocks. In the short term, be wary of a rebound in US dollar policy revaluation.