Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz returned to 40% of the pre-war level, OPEC+ increased production for the fifth consecutive month, a loose crude oil supply pattern was established, and oil prices fell back to pre-conflict levels. However, global inventory repair is lagging behind. OECD inventories have dropped to the lowest level since 1990, and the US SPR has dropped to a new low since 1983. It will take 15-18 months to replenish inventories. Low inventories reshape the bargaining chip between the United States and Iran, and the United States takes the initiative. In the short term, oil prices may drop to US$60-65, and geopolitical tail risks still exist.