As the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on September 15-16 approaches, new Chairman Warsh faces the triple test of "credibility anchor, data truth and political jeopardy" for the first time. Wmax's in-depth dismantling: Jackson Hole's hawkish tone has taken hold, but the downward revision of employment data by 178,000 has put pressure on inflation resilience, and the November midterm elections have added political constraints. The market is still predicting using the traditional "data → policy" linear framework, but it has not realized that Warsh has dismantled forward guidance and turned to discipline guidance. Regardless of whether interest rates are raised or not, high volatility and high interest rates will coexist. Gold will be suppressed in the short term but its mid-term support has not been broken.