OPEC+ kept production unchanged to deal with oversupply, and oil prices fell by more than 18% in 2025, the largest decline since 2020. Market indicators in the Middle East were weak, with 8 million barrels of crude oil unsalable, and the premium structure of futures strengthening bearish expectations. Despite frequent geopolitics, Venezuelan production has plummeted and Asia has not rushed to buy alternatives, so the actual impact is limited. The short-term weakness in the oil market is difficult to change, and attention will be paid to the OPEC+ meeting in February.