The conflict between the United States and Iran continues to ferment, navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is almost at a standstill, and oil-producing countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar have escalated their production cuts, leaving a crude oil supply gap of 17 million barrels per day. On March 9, Brent crude oil soared 29% to nearly $120 and then reversed, setting the largest intraday rise and fall gap in history. Oil prices exceeded 100, reversing global interest rate cut expectations. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March plummeted from 78% to 12%, and the probability of restarting interest rate hikes in March was priced at 23%. The risk of selling U.S. stocks has increased sharply. Yardeni raised the probability of collapse to 40%. The S&P 500 fell 3.2% in a single week, and the VIX was running at a high level. Geographical conflicts have replaced supply and demand fundamentals and become the core driver of asset pricing.