Expectations of the end of the Iran war have weakened the safe-haven appeal of the U.S. dollar, which fell 2.3% from its late-March high, marking its worst monthly performance in eight months. The high level of U.S. stocks and consumer confidence have reached a new low since 1952, forming an extreme divergence. The K-shaped differentiation has intensified, and the risk of weak consumption has accumulated. In the short term, pay attention to the Middle East negotiations and the Federal Reserve's policy signals, and be wary of the risks of consumption transmitting to the capital market.