Warsh is about to take over as chairman of the Federal Reserve and may launch an asymmetric combination of balance sheet reduction + interest rate cuts, subverting market expectations for interest rate cuts. CPI accelerated its upward trend in April, and interest rate swaps bet on an 85% probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points before April next year. Employment data hides widow maker trading risks. Once the unemployment rate breaks through 4.5%, it will force the Federal Reserve to make an emergency pivot. It is recommended to adopt scenario tree thinking, go long on the US dollar in the short term, and keep an eye on the cracks in the unemployment rate.