The U.S. CPI data for September will be released soon. Energy prices have driven overall inflation up by 0.6% month-on-month, while core CPI continues to be moderate. Wmax pointed out that the current inflation is characterized by "point hot spots", but the risk of supply-based inflation spreading from energy to transportation, food and AI infrastructure has been underestimated. The market has priced in nearly 80% of the suspension of interest rate hikes in October, and consensus expectations are too concentrated to form a fragile balance. If the core CPI exceeds expectations by more than 0.3% month-on-month, it will trigger a rapid correction of the policy path. The bond market with a 10-year U.S. bond yield near 5% shows an asymmetric response pattern of "a top and a bottom."