The Trump administration's criminal investigation into Powell and the impasse over Warsh's nomination have escalated the political game. The Federal Reserve has maintained a neutral stance dominated by economic data in the short term, and expectations for interest rate cuts have continued to cool. The Supreme Court and Congress have cross-party support to build a strong defense line for independence. The long-term direction depends on the triple resonance of the personnel structure and economic fundamentals.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is under criminal investigation by the Department of Justice, posing a serious threat to the central bank's independence. Powell fought back hard, accusing the government of pressuring the government to cut interest rates. Central banks around the world planned to unite in support, and the Governor of Canada was the first to express support. The market's business community is privately shocked but publicly silent as Republican senators plan to block Trump's nominee. This game between politics and central bank independence tests the cornerstone of global financial stability.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is under criminal investigation by the Department of Justice, posing a serious threat to the central bank's independence. Powell fought back hard, accusing the government of pressuring the government to cut interest rates. Central banks around the world planned to unite in support, and the Governor of Canada was the first to express support. The market's business community is privately shocked but publicly silent as Republican senators plan to block Trump's nominee. This game between politics and central bank independence tests the cornerstone of global financial stability.

Trump's pressure to cut interest rates and change directors threatens the Fed's independence. In the base scenario, inflation rises to 3%, and extreme takeover may lead to a repeat of the 1970 stagflation and damage to the status of the US dollar. Short-term political gains cannot offset the long-term costs, and adhering to the independence of the central bank is the cornerstone of stable growth.