The conflict in the Middle East has pushed up energy prices, and inflation in the euro zone has jumped from 1.9% to 2.6%. It is almost certain that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.25% in June, and will keep interest rates unchanged on April 30. This is a precautionary one-time operation and not a new tightening cycle. Stagflation is looming, GDP growth will be reduced to 0.9% in 2026, and interest rate cuts may resume in 2027. Pay attention to the April meeting guidance, June inflation data and oil price trends.