The Bank of Japan's benchmark interest rate rose to a 30-year high of 0.75%. The January meeting is expected to remain unchanged, but the weakness of the yen has become a key variable. Sanae's plans for an early election triggered volatility in the high market, and the yen fell to an 18-month low. The transmission effect of inflation has strengthened, and some officials advocate raising interest rates ahead of schedule in the summer. The market predicts that interest rates may rise to 1% in September, and the terminal interest rate is expected to be 1.5%. The central bank needs to balance assessing the effects of policies with responding to political fluctuations.

At the end of 2025, the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained interest rates to end easing, and the Bank of Japan decided to raise interest rates to 0.75% and start tightening. Inflation is the common core trigger, but Australia is waiting to see the data, while Japan has taken the initiative to tighten despite political resistance. Both are trapped in the dilemma of uncertainty in policy paths, indicating that Asia-Pacific monetary policy will enter a complex stage of differentiation and linkage in 2026.