The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has pushed up oil price risks. Navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is less than 45% of the pre-war level. Goldman Sachs’ extreme scenario sees Brent reaching US$120 in the fourth quarter. European diesel stocks have bottomed out, and refining bottlenecks have become a core constraint. The energy rebound has pushed up global inflation, the Federal Reserve's hawkish tone has strengthened, and interest rate cut expectations have been postponed.

In May, 172,000 new non-farm jobs were added, exceeding expectations. Employment growth in the past three months hit a new high in more than two years, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%. The hawkish camp within the Federal Reserve has grown, and the market has fully priced in an interest rate hike within the year, with the probability of a December rate hike soaring. Warsh is facing a big test for the first time. There is a high probability that the June meeting will remain unchanged but his words will be hawkish, retaining the option of raising interest rates. Gold plummeted nearly $100, and U.S. bond yields rose across the board.

The Bank of Japan's benchmark interest rate rose to a 30-year high of 0.75%. The January meeting is expected to remain unchanged, but the weakness of the yen has become a key variable. Sanae's plans for an early election triggered volatility in the high market, and the yen fell to an 18-month low. The transmission effect of inflation has strengthened, and some officials advocate raising interest rates ahead of schedule in the summer. The market predicts that interest rates may rise to 1% in September, and the terminal interest rate is expected to be 1.5%. The central bank needs to balance assessing the effects of policies with responding to political fluctuations.

At the end of 2025, the Reserve Bank of Australia maintained interest rates to end easing, and the Bank of Japan decided to raise interest rates to 0.75% and start tightening. Inflation is the common core trigger, but Australia is waiting to see the data, while Japan has taken the initiative to tighten despite political resistance. Both are trapped in the dilemma of uncertainty in policy paths, indicating that Asia-Pacific monetary policy will enter a complex stage of differentiation and linkage in 2026.