Amid the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, attacks on the Saudi East-West crude oil pipeline forced European refinery managers to reduce quotas. At the same time, natural gas inventories were only 69%, well below the five-year average, and the replenishment window was on the verge of closing. Wmax deeply dissects the three-chain resonance of crude oil logistics, natural gas inventories, and power supply structure: German power futures rose by more than 60% year-on-year, and low-cost power sources were under pressure at many points; the natural gas shock penetrated deeper into Europe's core inflation, and the European Central Bank still faces the dilemma of energy and growth after raising interest rates. The combination of cold winter and geopolitical tensions may push up wholesale electricity prices by another 50%. The market needs to be alert to the tail risks of compound supply shocks.