{"id":10453,"date":"2026-07-06T15:48:32","date_gmt":"2026-07-06T07:48:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/?p=10453"},"modified":"2026-07-06T15:48:35","modified_gmt":"2026-07-06T07:48:35","slug":"%e4%be%9b%e5%ba%94%e5%ae%bd%e6%9d%be%e6%b2%b9%e4%bb%b7%e8%b7%8c%e5%9b%9e%e6%88%98%e5%89%8d%e5%ba%93%e5%ad%98%e4%bf%ae%e5%a4%8d%e6%bb%9e%e5%90%8e%e9%87%8d%e5%a1%91%e7%be%8e%e4%bc%8a%e5%8d%9a%e5%bc%88","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/archives\/10453","title":{"rendered":"Loose supply, oil prices fell back to pre-war, and inventory repair lags, reshaping the game between the United States and Iran!"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Wmax commodity research team combines high-frequency shipping data from the Strait of Hormuz, OPEC+'s latest production decisions, global inventory changes and geopolitical situation dynamics, relying onCrude oil supply and demand balance monitoring framework<\/strong>\u3001Inventory cycle calculation model<\/strong>\u4e0eGeo-game analysis system<\/strong>Comprehensive analysis and judgment: As shipping in the Strait of Hormuz gradually resumes and OPEC+ promotes production increases for the fifth consecutive month, the global crude oil market has rapidly shifted from supply tightness to loosening, and international oil prices have fallen back to pre-conflict levels; however, global inventory repairs are seriously lagging behind, and the replenishment cycle is much longer than market expectations. This asymmetric change is reshaping the power structure of US-Iran negotiations. At the same time, the Red Sea shipping attacks are still unfolding, and the fragility of the regional situation is still a tail risk that cannot be ignored in the market.<\/p>\n

<\/a>The supply side recovered beyond expectations, and a loose pattern was quickly established<\/strong><\/p>\n

The core driver of this round of crude oil market reversal is that the repair speed of the supply side is far faster than market expectations. Wmax shipping data monitoring shows that the current daily number of oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz has rebounded to 30-60. Although it is still lower than the pre-conflict level, it has effectively alleviated supply anxiety; statistics from ship tracking agency Vortexa show that the total volume of crude oil exported to the Persian Gulf in June was approximately 140 million barrels, equivalent to a daily average of 4.7 million barrels, which was significantly higher than the daily average of 2 million barrels in May and entered 7 By the beginning of the month, traffic had returned to about 40% of pre-war levels.<\/p>\n

The increase in production by oil-producing countries has further amplified the trend of loose supply. OPEC+ officially announced last Sunday that it will increase daily production by 188,000 barrels in August. This is the fifth consecutive month that the organization has implemented an increase in production, marking the continued and orderly exit of the production reduction policy since 2023. Although OPEC+ emphasized in its statement that it would \"closely monitor market conditions\" and retain the flexibility to increase production, suspend or reverse policies, the marginal impact of this increase in production has been relatively limited against the backdrop of gradually unblocked transportation channels.<\/p>\n

\"Partial<\/p>\n

From a country perspective, the recovery speed of exports in the region is divided: after the UAE withdrew from OPEC in May, it promoted the dual route of pipeline bypass from Abu Dhabi to Fujairah + seaborne exports, becoming one of the fastest recovering exporters in the region; Kuwait's crude oil exports have rebounded to about 1.6 million barrels per day last week, returning to two-thirds of the pre-conflict level; Saudi Arabia, while maintaining exports to the Persian Gulf, continues to transport crude oil relying on the Red Sea route, and the supply stability is significantly stronger than market expectations. Wmax supply and demand balance sheet calculations show that the current superposition of multiple supply increments has basically covered the supply gap caused by the conflict, and the market has quickly switched from \"shortage panic\" to \"abundance expectations.\"<\/p>\n

<\/a>Inventory repair is seriously lagging behind, reshaping the geopolitical game chips<\/strong><\/p>\n

In sharp contrast to the rapid repair of the supply side, the repair speed of global crude oil inventories is seriously lagging behind, which has also become the core structural contradiction of the current market. Wmax inventory cycle model monitoring data shows that crude oil inventories in member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) decreased by 163 million barrels from March to May, falling to the lowest level since December 1990; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has even fallen to a historical low since 1983. The pressure to replenish the inventory is huge but progress is slow.<\/p>\n

Historical experience and institutional calculations have confirmed the long-term nature of replenishment: Capital Economics estimates show that even if the U.S. strategic oil reserve is replenished at a rate of 200,000 barrels per day, it will take 15-18 months to return to pre-conflict levels; JPMorgan Chase judges that OECD countries will most likely not start strategic inventory replenishment until the fourth quarter of this year, while the U.S. replenishment is even later and is not expected to officially start until 2027, with an initial scale of only about 100,000 barrels per day. Ruizide Energy also pointed out that the current focus of U.S. policy is still on lowering oil prices, and there is almost no incentive to actively bid for crude oil replenishment, further prolonging the inventory repair cycle.<\/p>\n

\"Partial<\/p>\n

This time gap between supply and demand recovery is profoundly changing the balance of power in the game between the United States and Iran. U.S. Vice President Vance had previously clearly linked the inventory issue to the negotiation process, revealing the core logic of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding - first restore supply to stabilize oil prices, and then use the time window of low inventory to advance negotiations. The Wmax geogame analysis system determines that as oil prices fall and transportation recovers, Iran's core bargaining chip of \"blocking the strait and threatening global energy supply\" has been significantly weakened; and the 60-day negotiation period is much shorter than the inventory repair cycle, which also allows the United States to take a more proactive pace in the negotiations.<\/p>\n

<\/a>The divergence between long and short has intensified, and tail risks have not yet been completely eliminated.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The combination of loose supply and lagging inventories has significantly amplified the current market divergence on the subsequent trend of oil prices. The short camp, represented by Macquarie and Citigroup, believes that under the background that demand has not yet expanded simultaneously and inventory buying has not yet started, oil prices may further drop from the current approximately US$70\/barrel to US$60 in the next few months, and the pressure of oversupply will continue to suppress prices. However, bullish logic and tail risks cannot be ignored either. On the one hand, global inventories are at historically low levels. Once demand picks up or supply fluctuates, it is easy to trigger a price rebound. On the other hand, the stability of the regional situation is still in doubt. Many institutions have questioned the durability of the ceasefire, believing that the market has priced in optimistic expectations of a \"permanent end to hostilities\" in advance, but this judgment has not yet been fully verified.<\/p>\n

Recent attacks in the Red Sea have also sounded alarm bells for the market. The UK Maritime Trade Action Office reported that a cargo ship was attacked by unknown assailants in the waters southwest of Hodeidah in the Red Sea, once again confirming the fragility of the regional situation. Although the United States and Iran have reached a ceasefire understanding, uncertainty about proxy forces such as the Houthi armed forces in Yemen remains, and local shipping disruptions may trigger short-term fluctuations in oil prices at any time. Wmax judged that the current market is in the game stage between \"loose reality\" and \"risk expectations\". Short-term oil prices still have downward pressure, but historically low inventories and geopolitical tail risks will limit the room for decline.<\/p>\n

\"Partial<\/p>\n

<\/a>Wmax market outlook research and core tracking clues<\/strong><\/p>\n

Combining the three major dimensions of supply and demand, inventory and geography, Wmax makes a comprehensive judgment on the subsequent trend of the crude oil market:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. price trend<\/strong>: The loose supply and demand pattern dominates the short-term, and oil prices are still likely to fall to the bottom, and the range of 60-65 US dollars \/ barrel will usher in the support of strategic replenishment demand; in the medium term, with the gradual reconstruction of global inventories and the marginal recovery of the demand side, oil prices are expected to stabilize and rebound, and the space for a sharp decline is relatively limited.<\/li>\n
  2. Geographical pattern<\/strong>: The deterrent effect of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been significantly reduced, and the United States has an increased say in the negotiations between the United States and Iran. However, the fragility of the regional situation still exists. Local attacks may repeatedly disturb market sentiment, and the risk premium is difficult to completely disappear.<\/li>\n
  3. Policy trend<\/strong>: OPEC+ will maintain the rhythm of \"cautious production increase + flexible adjustment\". If oil prices fall more than expected, it does not rule out the possibility of suspending production increases or even returning to production cuts. The policy bottom will become an important support for oil prices.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    In the future, we will focus on tracking four core clues: first, the progress of shipping recovery in the Strait of Hormuz and changes in export volumes; second, OPEC+\u2019s follow-up production policy and the implementation of member states; third, the replenishment rhythm of global commercial inventories and strategic reserves; fourth, security incidents and the evolution of the geopolitical situation in the Red Sea and Persian Gulf regions.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz returned to 40% of the pre-war level, OPEC+ increased production for the fifth consecutive month, a loose crude oil supply pattern was established, and oil prices fell back to pre-conflict levels. However, global inventory repair is lagging behind. OECD inventories have dropped to the lowest level since 1990, and the US SPR has dropped to a new low since 1983. It will take 15-18 months to replenish inventories. Low inventories reshape the bargaining chip between the United States and Iran, and the United States takes the initiative. In the short term, oil prices may drop to US$60-65, and geopolitical tail risks still exist.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10454,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[121],"tags":[1361,139,1364,1360,1363,1362],"class_list":["post-10453","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-financial-news","tag-opec","tag-139","tag-1364","tag-1360","tag-1363","tag-1362"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10453","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10453"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10453\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10458,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10453\/revisions\/10458"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10454"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10453"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10453"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10453"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}