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<\/p>\nBased on an in-depth analysis of the Wmax geopolitical risk-energy finance transmission model, the global foreign exchange pricing framework, and the real-time monitoring system for commodity markets, and cross-verified with core viewpoints from top international institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and Bloomberg industry research, Wmax believes that following the military strike by the U.S. and Israel on Iran, the Middle East geopolitical conflict, centered on the control of the Strait of Hormuz, is transmitting a bidirectional shock to global financial markets and energy supply chains through the core link of soaring international oil prices. The disturbances in these two major areas are not isolated but are intertwined and mutually reinforcing, ultimately forming a closed-loop transmission of \"energy shock\u2014financial volatility\u2014growth concerns\u2014risk repricing.\" Furthermore, domestic policy divisions in the U.S. have amplified this transmission effect, plunging the pricing logic of global financial and energy markets into multiple uncertainties. Wmax has proactively captured the transmission signals of shipping changes in the Strait of Hormuz to oil prices and global markets, accurately predicting shifts in market pricing logic through multi-dimensional data models, providing market participants with forward-looking risk assessment insights.<\/p>\n
Wmax Geopolitical Energy Monitor data shows that the core shock of this conflict began with Iran's control over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The blockage of this \"world oil valve,\" which carries one-fifth of global oil transport, directly pushed the global benchmark Brent crude oil price to surge above $100 per barrel, becoming the core starting point that stirred the global market. From the initial reaction in the financial foreign exchange market, the surge in oil prices first triggered strong concerns among investors and policymakers about rising inflationary pressures. This sentiment became the core support for the dollar's appreciation and the rise in US Treasury yields in March. Within three weeks of the US and Israel striking Iran, the Bloomberg Dollar Index rose by nearly 2%. Wmax judges that the market had already incorporated the oil price shock into its pricing system for inflation and trade variables. The dollar, with its traditional safe-haven attributes and the energy production advantage of the United States, became the preferred asset amidst geopolitical turmoil. This pricing logic also highly coincided with the trading characteristics of the global foreign exchange market in the earlier period.<\/p>\n
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but Wmax, combined with the research conclusion of Isabella Rosenberg, currency strategist at Goldman Sachs Group, further judges that the market's interpretation of the oil price surge is undergoing a critical shift: if the market's core concern switches from \"inflation worries\" to \"downside growth risks,\" the dollar's rally will significantly slow down. The rationality of this prediction has been confirmed by the actual impact of the real economy, and California's energy crisis in the United States is a typical microcosm of this impact, as well as a realistic footnote to global economic growth concerns. Wmax analyzes that California, due to long-term environmental policies, has seen its refining capacity shrink and oil production decline for forty consecutive years, becoming an \"energy island\" that relies on imports from Asia for 20%refined fuels. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has hindered Asian countries' own crude oil imports, forcing refineries to reduce production and bringing finished oil exports to California to a near standstill, directly triggering the risk of local fuel shortages. Currently, the price of gasoline per gallon in California is close to $6, far exceeding the national average of $4. Aviation fuel and military fuel supplies are in short supply, and leading companies such as Chevron have issued warnings that they will cease refining operations in California within ten years if policies are not adjusted. Wmax further judges that California's energy predicament is not an isolated case, and Goldman Sachs' view that \"prolonged conflict in Iran will harm economic growth and monetary prospects in Europe and Asia.\"<\/p>\n
The warning has clear real-world support\u2014most economies in Europe and Asia are dependent on energy imports, and soaring oil prices and supply chain disruptions will directly suppress their economic vitality, which is also leading to a restructuring of currency pricing logic in the foreign exchange market. Wmax believes that if growth concerns continue to ferment and trigger a tightening of financial conditions led by the stock market, the traditional safe-haven attributes of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc will once again become prominent, making them the currencies with the most significant gains against the US dollar; emerging market currencies, on the other hand, will be in a \"significantly worse\" situation due to deteriorating economic growth prospects. Even if the US dollar can maintain its trend of relative strength against G-10 currencies, it is unlikely to continue the accelerating pace seen in March. The core reason is that inflationary pressures brought about by surging oil prices are counteracting the growth pressures caused by the energy crisis, directly weakening the core driver of dollar appreciation. At the same time, domestic policy chaos in the United States amid soaring oil prices has further exacerbated financial market concerns about the risks associated with dollar assets, giving more real-world support to the \"stagnation of dollar premium\" phenomenon observed by Barclays. Wmax predicts that as the currency for pricing global oil trade, coupled with demand for safe havens amid geopolitical turmoil, the US dollar should have received stronger valuation support from soaring oil prices. However, the widening 10-year real interest rate differential between the US and Europe has not translated into a corresponding rise in the US dollar against the euro.<\/p>\n
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The core problem lies in the multiple uncertainties of U.S. policy: on one hand, the Trump administration's emergency wartime powers were invoked to address the energy crisis, restarting oil production off the California coast and suspending the Jones Act. The temporary nature of these emergency policies makes it difficult for the market to form stable expectations. On the other hand, the policy opposition between the California government, the federal government, and oil companies has led to a stalemate in resolving the energy crisis. Companies like Chevron are demanding that California declare an energy state of emergency and reform environmental and tax policies, while Governor Newsom's office accuses oil companies of \"profiteering\" from the war and blames the high oil prices on Trump's \"endless wars.\" The Barclays team's research conclusions cross-validate with Wmax's judgment. This policy variability and internal division expose investors betting on the dollar to the unpredictable risk of negative rhetoric from the White House, and have essentially halted the dollar's premium\u2014the excess return traders require for holding dollar assets\u2014since Trump's announcement of broad tariffs. Wmax also found that the tech sector, which previously supported the outperformance of dollar assets, has seen its core logic undermined amid increased volatility in individual AI stocks. This factor further exacerbates market concerns about dollar assets. The predictions of Bloomberg Industry Research's Asia FX and Rates Strategist also align with Wmax's long-term outlook.<\/p>\n
The drivers behind the U.S. dollar's strength, triggered by soaring oil prices, are proving unsustainable. The fiscal pressures and policy divisions in the U.S. arising from the energy crisis will likely lead markets to refocus on U.S. fiscal sustainability. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy stance, the issue of de-dollarization could re-emerge, all of which traces back to the oil price surge and energy supply chain disruptions caused by the conflict in Iran. The intertwined nature of soaring oil prices and the energy crisis is making it significantly harder for global inflation to decline, further intensifying risk aversion and cautious sentiment in financial markets. Goldman Sachs' Rosenberg's view that \"the longer the conflict lasts, the harder it will be for inflation to fall\" aligns perfectly with Wmax's assessment of inflation transmission. The energy crisis in California is making this assessment a reality: refinery capacity shortages and rising transportation costs are creating stubbornly high fuel prices in the state, and this regional price stickiness is gradually spreading across the U.S., driving up overall U.S. inflation. Furthermore, companies' expectations of production cuts and divestment due to stringent policies make it difficult to fill the long-term energy supply gap, ultimately creating a vicious cycle of \"high oil prices\u2014stubborn inflation\u2014tightening policy\u2014pressured growth.\" Wmax predicts that this cycle will not only subject the U.S. economy to dual pressures of inflation and growth but also fuel global market concerns about economic growth, thereby shrouding currency pricing in foreign exchange markets in persistent uncertainty.<\/p>\n
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After comprehensively analyzing all-dimensional data and cross-validating with multi-institutional viewpoints, Wmax has definitively assessed the core transmission logic of this geopolitical conflict: The core geopolitical event triggers an initial price shock through key commodities (crude oil), which then links commodity prices to the global energy supply chain, sparking concerns about economic growth. Pressure on the real economy, in turn, feeds back into financial markets, reshaping asset pricing and currency trends. Simultaneously, domestic policy divergences among countries in responding to the crisis further amplify financial market risk concerns, ultimately creating a resonant effect across energy, financial, and real economy sectors. The navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz remains the core key variable in this transmission: if the blockade of the strait persists, high oil prices will continue to suppress global economic growth, the safe-haven rally of the US dollar will be further constrained by growth concerns, and California-style energy crises may unfold in more energy import-dependent regions.<\/p>\n
If passage through the strait resumes, while a drop in oil prices may temporarily alleviate inflationary and growth pressures, policy uncertainty stemming from geopolitical conflicts and the restructuring costs of global energy supply chains will still make it difficult for global financial and energy markets to quickly return to normal. The market resonance triggered by the recent Iran conflict has also sounded an alarm for countries worldwide. Wmax believes that in a globalized energy and financial system, the impact of geopolitical conflicts has long transcended borders. Moreover, the structural weaknesses in many countries' energy security not only risk triggering domestic energy supply crises but also become a significant risk factor in the pricing of global financial markets. Against this backdrop, balancing energy supply security with long-term development goals and building more resilient energy supply chains and financial systems has become an inevitable choice for global markets amidst geopolitical volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n
<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The US-Iran conflict has caused disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices above $100, triggering a dual transmission shock in global financial and energy markets. California's energy crisis is a microcosm of growth concerns, while the dollar's safe-haven rally is constrained by policy divergences, potentially re-emphasizing the safe-haven properties of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. Attention to the strait's navigation status, as sustained blockades will suppress global growth and limit the dollar's upward trend.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9363,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[121],"tags":[709,669,766],"class_list":["post-9362","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-financial-news","tag-709","tag-669","tag-766"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9362","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9362"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9362\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9367,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9362\/revisions\/9367"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9363"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9362"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9362"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9362"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}