{"id":9488,"date":"2026-04-02T16:22:17","date_gmt":"2026-04-02T08:22:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/?p=9488"},"modified":"2026-04-02T16:22:21","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T08:22:21","slug":"%e6%b2%b9%e4%bb%b7%e6%9a%b4%e6%b6%a8%e3%80%81%e9%bb%84%e9%87%91%e6%9a%b4%e8%b7%8c%ef%bc%81wmax-%e6%b7%b1%e5%ba%a6%e8%a7%a3%e8%af%bb%e7%89%b9%e6%9c%97%e6%99%ae%e4%bc%8a%e6%9c%97%e8%ae%b2%e8%af%9d","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/archives\/9488","title":{"rendered":"Oil prices skyrocketed and gold plummeted! Wmax An in-depth interpretation of the market changes after Trump\u2019s Iran speech"},"content":{"rendered":"

In response to US President Trump's national speech on the situation in Iran, as well as the violent fluctuations and abnormal deviations in global stocks, bonds, crude oil, precious metals and other major assets after the speech, Wmax relied on its professional geopolitical analysis team, millisecond-level cross-market data monitoring system and mature asset pricing model to immediately complete the full-dimensional, multi-perspective in-depth monitoring and professional research and judgment on the geopolitical evolution path, global capital abnormality characteristics, and the pricing logic of major assets. We combine the current core contradictions in the global market, the historical patterns of past geopolitical conflicts and long-term asset trends, integrate massive real-time transaction data, central bank position data and capital flow data to comprehensively dismantle the market impact of this speech and formulate the following authoritative interpretation to provide investors with a reliable reference.<\/p>\n

<\/a>The core signal of Trump\u2019s speech is different from market expectations<\/strong><\/p>\n

Wmax systematically sorted out the core military, policy and energy orientation of this speech, and accurately captured the key differences between market expectations and the content of the speech. In this speech, Trump clearly set the tone for the progress of the war in Iran, saying that the US military has achieved a quick and decisive victory, the main force of Iran's navy and air force has been severely damaged, the command and control system of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards has been continuously destroyed, and Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missile research and development capabilities have been significantly curbed by military operations; at the same time, he released It has sent a clear tough signal, saying that it will carry out further heavy blows to Iran in the next 2-3 weeks. Even if regime change is not included in the established plan, it does not rule out the possibility of extreme escalation of the conflict. If no agreement is reached, Iran will attack core livelihood facilities such as power plants and completely destroy its defense industrial base and threat capabilities to the United States.<\/p>\n

\"IMG_257\"<\/p>\n

In terms of energy, Trump emphasized that the United States has completely broken away from dependence on Middle East oil by relying on Venezuela's oil and gas resources. He believed that the current increase in gasoline prices was a short-term phenomenon caused by Iran's attack on oil tankers, and that subsequent oil production will increase significantly. However, for the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently basically in a state of blockade and responsible for one-fifth of the world's maritime oil circulation, this speech did not provide a clear navigation solution and long-term plan. He only repeatedly called on countries that rely on this waterway to take action. This is also the core of this speech. Market expectations failed. In addition, this speech did not contain the negative statements about NATO that were widely expected by the market. It did not announce its withdrawal from NATO, nor did it criticize NATO allies for not participating in the war against Iraq.<\/p>\n

<\/a>The immediate reaction of the global market triggered by the speech and the core interpretation of Wmax<\/strong><\/p>\n

Wmax monitored in real time that after the speech was released, the global market quickly completed risk revaluation, and the trends of major asset classes were completely centered on the expectation of escalating geopolitical conflicts, and there were many deviations from traditional pricing logic. We made a precise dismantling of the underlying logic. In the equity market, risk appetite fell significantly. The U.S. S&P 500 index futures fell 0.5% during the day, the MSCI Asia Pacific index fell simultaneously to 0.5%, and the Nikkei 225 index completely gave up its early gains and fell 0.4%. Wmax believes that the core of the market's negative reaction stems from the fact that the speech did not provide a clear exit channel for the war, but instead released a signal of short-term escalation. Five weeks after the war began, the end point of the conflict was still not clear, exacerbating investors' concerns that the war would drag down global economic growth.<\/p>\n

In the bond market, safe-haven buying under traditional geopolitical conflicts did not appear. U.S. and Japanese Treasury bonds fell simultaneously. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose 3 basis points to 4.35%, and the yield on the 30-year Japanese Treasury bond rose 2.5 basis points to 3.640%. According to Wmax's research, the core reason for this deviation is that the market has begun to price the central rise in inflation brought about by the long-term rise in oil prices, which in turn forces global monetary policy to maintain high levels, completely breaking the pricing logic of traditional safe-haven bonds. This is also the core risk point we have continued to remind in our previous series of research and judgments on geopolitical conflicts.<\/p>\n

\"Partial<\/p>\n

In the crude oil market, directly driven by Trump's threat to attack Iran's core energy facilities, oil prices rose sharply during the day. WTI crude oil exceeded 103 US dollars per barrel, an intraday increase of more than 4%, and Brent crude oil simultaneously rose 4.06% to 102.86 US dollars per barrel. Wmax has always reminded that every day the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, there will be a gap of approximately 11 million barrels in global oil supply. However, this speech not only fails to provide an effective solution for the navigation of the strait, but completely transfers the responsibility for navigation to countries that rely on the waterway. This means that the expectation of tight oil supply will continue to ferment, and the risk premium is likely to be maintained for a long time, thereby driving up global inflation in the long term. This judgment is completely consistent with the current market trend. In the precious metals market, the conflict escalation signal released by the speech did not lead gold out of the traditional safe-haven market. Instead, it suffered an extreme decline. Spot gold fell to US$4,700 per ounce, a day-on-day drop of more than 2%. Spot silver fell by more than 3% during the day. New York silver futures fell by 4.13% during the day, forming a strong departure from the market's general risk-aversion expectations.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Dismantling the underlying logic of gold market changes and analyzing long-term trends<\/strong><\/p>\n

In response to the unexpected collapse of gold in this round and the market's general doubts about the safe-haven properties of precious metals, Wmax combined multi-dimensional data on capital structure, macro cycle and geographical pattern to complete an in-depth dismantling of the core driving factors and clarify the core boundaries between short-term market fluctuations and long-term trends. Wmax monitoring data shows that the price of gold has fallen by 15% this month. From the closing high in January to the recent low, the maximum decline has reached 19%, approaching the critical threshold of a bear market. However, we judge that this round of decline is not the failure of gold\u2019s safe-haven properties, but the result of multiple short-term shocks and the resonance of capital. It has not broken the foundation of gold\u2019s long-term bull market that has lasted for three years.<\/p>\n

\"IMG_256\"<\/p>\n

From the perspective of short-term decline, there are three core drivers of this round of gold slump: First, the collective selling of stocks and bonds triggered a liquidity crisis, and investors sold gold to make up for the margin gap; second, the war in Iran pushed up oil prices and the U.S. dollar index, the U.S. dollar strengthened, and bond yields rose, suppressing the short-term allocation attractiveness of gold; third, the market was worried that the pace of central bank gold purchases was slowing down, the war in Iran led to the shrinking of U.S. dollar reserves of energy importing countries, and Turkey's selling of more than $8 billion in gold further intensified pessimism. In terms of capital structure, gold ETFs have suffered the largest capital outflow since 2022, hedge funds have significantly reduced their net long holdings, and speculative trading has concentrated on liquidating positions, exacerbating the oversold gold price.<\/p>\n

Despite the severe short-term correction, Wmax insists that the core logic supporting gold's long-term bull market has not changed. This round of correction is an oversold caused by short-term capital shocks, not a trend reversal. On the one hand, currency depreciation and inflation risks brought about by high global debt and fiscal laxity are still long-term structural benefits for gold; on the other hand, historical patterns show that the short-term correction of gold due to margin calls in the early stages of the stock market sell-off is a temporary phenomenon, and subsequent hedging and anti-inflation properties will be repriced. At present, bargain hunting has entered the market. The price of gold rebounded by about 3% last Friday. The long-term bullish signals of leading asset management institutions are consistent with the judgment of Wmax. After the liquidation of speculative positions is completed, gold pricing will return to the main line of inflation, currency depreciation and geopolitical division, and the long-term upward trend has not been broken. The current core contradiction in the market focuses on the evolution of the war in Iran and the reassessment of geopolitical risks. Wmax will continue to track relevant developments and rely on full-dimensional data and in-depth research to provide accurate forward-looking analysis and judgment to help investors seize opportunities.<\/p>\n

The content of this research and judgment is only Wmax's professional analysis based on market data and geodynamics. It does not constitute any investment advice, trading guidance or basis for investment decision-making. Investors who operate based on this are responsible for their own risks.<\/strong><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trump's speech on Iran sent a signal of an escalation of the war and did not resolve the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices exceeded $103. Gold plummeted by more than 2% and fell below US$4,700. This was due to the short-term impact of the liquidity crisis and the strengthening of the US dollar. The foundation of the long-term bull market has not been broken. The simultaneous decline of stocks and bonds broke the traditional risk aversion logic, and the market priced inflation center rose. Pay attention to the evolution of the war and reassessment of geopolitical risks.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9489,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[121],"tags":[811,810,812],"class_list":["post-9488","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-financial-news","tag-811","tag-810","tag-812"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9488","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9488"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9488\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9493,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9488\/revisions\/9493"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9489"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9488"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9488"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9488"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}