{"id":9680,"date":"2026-04-21T15:12:02","date_gmt":"2026-04-21T07:12:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/?p=9680"},"modified":"2026-04-21T15:18:23","modified_gmt":"2026-04-21T07:18:23","slug":"%e8%b4%a7%e5%b8%81%e6%94%bf%e7%ad%96%e4%b8%8e%e7%a7%91%e6%8a%80%e5%8f%99%e4%ba%8b%ef%bc%9awmax%e8%a7%a3%e8%af%bb%e6%b2%83%e4%bb%80%e9%99%8d%e6%81%af%e7%bc%a9%e8%a1%a8%e7%ad%96","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/archives\/9680","title":{"rendered":"Monetary policy and technology narrative: Wmax interprets the fragile resonance between Warsh\u2019s \u201cinterest rate cut + balance sheet reduction\u201d strategy and the AI \u200b\u200bbubble"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Wmax macro strategy research team has long tracked the linkage between the Federal Reserve's policy logic, the technology industry cycle and global liquidity. In response to Trump's plan to nominate Kevin Warsh as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Warsh's proposal<strong>Interest rate cut + balance sheet reduction<\/strong>Combine policies and conduct professional research and judgment based on the AI \u200b\u200bproductivity revolution narrative. This strategy deeply binds monetary policy to the narrative of AI technology. Behind the seemingly sophisticated hedging design, there is a fatal disconnect between policy logic and reality, as well as the fragile risk of resonance between AI bubbles and monetary policy.<\/p>\n<p><a id=\"post-9680-heading_0\"><\/a><strong>1. The sophisticated design and political intentions of Wash\u2019s strategy<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"post-9680-heading_1\"><\/a><strong>1. Core policy: the hedging game of \u201cone hand is tight and the other is loose\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Wmax makes it clear that the core of Wash's solution is<strong>tight hedging<\/strong>Currency combo punch:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Tightening end: Large-scale reduction of the Federal Reserve's US$6.6 trillion balance sheet, reduction of long-term Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, tightening financial conditions, this move is equivalent to a 50 basis point interest rate increase, and curbs inflation from the money supply side;<\/li>\n<li>Loose side: Simultaneously lower the federal funds rate to offset the tightening effect of balance sheet shrinkage, maintain economic support, and meet short-term policy needs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1015\" height=\"520\" class=\"wp-image-9682\" src=\"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/20260421_142827.png\" alt=\"Partial interception_20260421_142827\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/20260421_142827.png 1015w, https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/20260421_142827-300x154.png 300w, https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/20260421_142827-768x393.png 768w, https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/20260421_142827-18x9.png 18w, https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/20260421_142827-900x461.png 900w, https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/20260421_142827-600x307.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1015px) 100vw, 1015px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"post-9680-heading_2\"><\/a><strong>2. The underlying narrative: AI as a \u201cdeflationary savior\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Wmax research pointed out that in the context of still high inflation, pure hedging logic cannot convince the Fed's hawks, so Warsh introduced<strong>AI Productivity Revolution<\/strong>Core narrative: Define AI as the core deflationary force that drives potential economic growth and suppresses long-term inflation, fundamentally rewrites the rules of monetary policy, and gives interest rate cuts a reasonable cloak of \u201cadaptation to the future economy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><a id=\"post-9680-heading_3\"><\/a><strong>3. Political nature: long-term vision serves short-term needs<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In-depth analysis of Wmax, the essence of this framework is<strong>Political Economics Discourse<\/strong>: Internally, it provides a theoretical platform for the hawks of the Federal Reserve, shifting the focus of the debate from \"whether inflation is under control\" to \"seizing future productivity\"; externally, it conforms to the political demand for low interest rates, using AI popular narratives to win market and public support, and shape the image of the Federal Reserve as a leader in innovation.<\/p>\n<p><a id=\"post-9680-heading_4\"><\/a><strong>2. The fatal gap between theory and reality<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"post-9680-heading_5\"><\/a><strong>1. \u201cTime Mismatch\u201d of AI Narrative<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Wmax industry tracking and macro model verification show that there is a core of Wash theory<strong>time mismatch<\/strong>defect:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Currently, AI only achieves partial efficiency optimization in the service industry. It requires a long process of industrial chain reconstruction and business model verification to boost the total factor productivity of the real economy such as manufacturing and construction industries on a large scale;<\/li>\n<li>U.S. power grid infrastructure bottlenecks trigger<strong>power deficit<\/strong>, has become a key constraint for the large-scale implementation of AI computing power, and the assumption of \"instant productivity explosion\" is difficult to implement.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1026\" height=\"519\" class=\"wp-image-9683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/20260421_144211.png\" alt=\"Partial interception_20260421_144211\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/20260421_144211.png 1026w, https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/20260421_144211-300x152.png 300w, https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/20260421_144211-1024x518.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/20260421_144211-768x388.png 768w, https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/20260421_144211-18x9.png 18w, https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/20260421_144211-900x455.png 900w, https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/20260421_144211-600x304.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1026px) 100vw, 1026px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"post-9680-heading_6\"><\/a><strong>2. \u201cTrust risk\u201d in policy transmission<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Wmax warns that if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates significantly in advance based on AI forward expectations and productivity fails to materialize as expected, it will trigger double risks:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Inflation is out of control: demand is stimulated, the supply side is not improved, and inflation returns directly;<\/li>\n<li>Narrative bankruptcy: \"AI is deflation\" logic was falsified, the policy framework collapsed, and both the credibility of the Federal Reserve and the market's confidence in AI were damaged.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a id=\"post-9680-heading_7\"><\/a><strong>3. The most dangerous resonance: How policy failure punctures the AI \u200b\u200bbubble<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Wmax emphasizes that the core risk of the Wash strategy is<strong>Monetary policy mistakes may be the trigger to burst the AI \u200b\u200bbubble<\/strong>. The current prosperity in the AI \u200b\u200bfield is highly bound to loose liquidity and optimistic narratives. Failure of the strategy will result in a fatal double kill:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><strong>Withdrawal of funds<\/strong>: The resurgence of inflation forced the Federal Reserve to urgently raise interest rates, global liquidity tightened, and the valuation models of AI start-ups that relied on continuous financing collapsed instantly;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Psychological collapse<\/strong>: The AI \u200b\u200b\u201ceconomic savior\u201d narrative went bankrupt, the market turned to fundamental verification, and the demand for AI applications without commercial value dried up;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Structural shortcomings exposed<\/strong>: The cold winter of capital has squeezed out the virtual fire in the industry, and deep-seated contradictions such as AI energy consumption, technology monopoly, and employment impact have emerged.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1027\" height=\"517\" class=\"wp-image-9684\" src=\"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/20260420_151844.png\" alt=\"Partial interception_20260420_151844\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/20260420_151844.png 1027w, https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/20260420_151844-300x151.png 300w, https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/20260420_151844-1024x515.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/20260420_151844-768x387.png 768w, https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/20260420_151844-18x9.png 18w, https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/20260420_151844-900x453.png 900w, https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/20260420_151844-600x302.png 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1027px) 100vw, 1027px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"post-9680-heading_8\"><\/a><strong>4. Conclusion: When narrative becomes an asset, risks follow it.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Wmax concluded that Warsh\u2019s strategy goes far beyond the scope of selecting the Fed chairman, reflecting<strong>Narrative has become a core asset and policy tool<\/strong>characteristics of contemporary finance. The high risk of strongly binding long-term technological vision with short-term monetary policy has been proven many times in history.<\/p>\n<p>Wmax always adheres to<strong>Data-driven, fundamentals first<\/strong>The research principles make it clear that monetary policy should be based on observable economic data and short-term realities, rather than betting on distant technological visions. Only by being alert to the risk of resonance between narrative bubbles and policy mistakes, and returning to the core judgment of industry and macro data, can we avoid the economy from falling into a drastic adjustment between \"expected future\" and \"skeletal reality.\"<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trump plans to nominate Warsh as chairman of the Federal Reserve, and his combination strategy of cutting interest rates and shrinking balance sheets places the AI \u200b\u200bproductivity revolution at the core of the deflation narrative. However, this strategy involves time mismatch and trust risks. If AI fails to deliver productivity as expected, it may lead to out-of-control inflation and narrative bankruptcy. What is even more dangerous is that policy mistakes may puncture the AI \u200b\u200bbubble, triggering a withdrawal of funds and a psychological collapse. Monetary policy should be based on observable data and be alert to the risk of narrative bubble resonance.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9681,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[121],"tags":[913,444,912,915,914],"class_list":["post-9680","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-financial-news","tag-ai","tag-444","tag-912","tag-915","tag-914"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9680","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9680"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9680\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9689,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9680\/revisions\/9689"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9681"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9680"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9680"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9680"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}