{"id":9723,"date":"2026-04-23T16:30:37","date_gmt":"2026-04-23T08:30:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/?p=9723"},"modified":"2026-04-23T16:30:42","modified_gmt":"2026-04-23T08:30:42","slug":"%e7%be%8e%e5%85%83%e9%81%bf%e9%99%a9%e9%80%80%e6%bd%ae%e8%b5%b0%e5%bc%b1%ef%bc%8c%e7%be%8e%e8%82%a1%e4%b8%8e%e6%b0%91%e7%94%9f%e4%bf%a1%e5%bf%83%e6%9e%81%e7%ab%af%e5%88%86%e5%8c%96","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/en\/archives\/9723","title":{"rendered":"The U.S. dollar's risk aversion has weakened, and U.S. stocks and people's confidence in people's livelihood are extremely divided"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

Wmax relies on the high-frequency monitoring system of global exchange rates, capital flows and U.S. consumption, combined with the latest market dynamics, to provide professional analysis and judgment on two core issues: the trend of the U.S. dollar and the deviation between U.S. stocks and consumer confidence: expectations of the end of the Iran war and expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, driving the U.S. dollar to weaken in stages; U.S. stocks remain high and public confidence hits a record low, forming an extreme polarization.Lagging risks from weak consumption<\/strong>are gradually accumulating.<\/p>\n

<\/a>The U.S. dollar\u2019s \u200b\u200bsafe-haven halo fades, and periodic weakness is established<\/strong><\/p>\n

Wmax tracking data shows that the expected end of the Iran war continues to weaken the safe-haven appeal of the U.S. dollar, and the market is betting on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Traders have concentrated on abandoning bullish positions on the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. dollar has entered a clear correction range. The dollar basket is down 2.3% from its late-March high and on track for its worst monthly performance since August last year, while the euro has recovered almost all of its early-war losses.<\/p>\n

\"IMG_256\"<\/p>\n

Wmax disassembles the core driver logic:<\/p>\n

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  1. Safe-haven buying ebbs quickly<\/strong>: In the early days of the conflict, the U.S. dollar soared sharply due to hedging demand. As the market expected that the United States and Iran would eventually reconcile, wartime hedging funds were withdrawn on a large scale. The U.S.'s relative advantage in resisting energy shocks no longer supported the strength of the U.S. dollar.<\/li>\n
  2. Return of risk appetite weighs on dollar<\/strong>: Global market volatility has fallen, and funds have poured into emerging market currencies and high-interest arbitrage varieties. The Korean won and the South African rand both rose by more than 2% in April, continuing to put pressure on the US dollar.<\/li>\n
  3. Monetary policy differentiation is expected to strengthen<\/strong>: High oil prices support the European Central Bank's interest rate hike expectations, while the market generally prices the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates within the year; Trump continues to pressure for interest rate cuts, and Warsh uses AI productivity to provide arguments for interest rate cuts, further tightening expectations for U.S. dollar liquidity.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Market signals confirm Wmax\u2019s judgment: the 3-month risk reversal indicator of the EURUSD returned to neutral from a bullish bias, and many Wall Street institutions restarted short-selling US dollar strategies. Wmax maintains the view:The short-term trend of the US dollar is dominated by the Middle East negotiation process, and long-term structural factors will still suppress the US dollar.<\/strong>\u3002<\/p>\n

    \"IMG_256\"<\/p>\n

    <\/a>The high level of U.S. stocks diverges from the new low of confidence, and K-shaped differentiation hides risks<\/strong><\/p>\n

    The Wmax U.S. consumer and stock market research team has monitored and found that U.S. stocks are hovering at historical highs, while U.S. consumer confidence is at a historical low, and the differentiation between the two has reached a critical state. The University of Michigan's preliminary April consumer confidence index plummeted to47.6<\/strong>, a record low since the index was compiled in 1952, and household financial expectations continue to deteriorate.<\/p>\n

    Wmax in-depth analysis of the root causes of differentiation:<\/p>\n