{"id":7980,"date":"2025-12-16T09:22:43","date_gmt":"2025-12-16T01:22:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/?p=7980"},"modified":"2025-12-16T09:22:48","modified_gmt":"2025-12-16T01:22:48","slug":"%e5%9c%a8%e9%9d%9e%e5%ae%8c%e5%85%a8%e6%9c%89%e6%95%88%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba%e4%b8%ad%ef%bc%8c%e9%9b%b6%e5%94%ae%e4%ba%a4%e6%98%93%e8%80%85%e7%9a%84%e7%90%86%e6%80%a7%e5%ae%9a%e4%bd%8d","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/ja\/\u30a2\u30fc\u30ab\u30a4\u30d6\/7980","title":{"rendered":"\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u306a\u52b9\u7387\u5e02\u5834\u306b\u304a\u3051\u308b\u5c0f\u58f2\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c0\u30fc\u306e\u5408\u7406\u7684\u306a\u4f4d\u7f6e\u4ed8\u3051"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u73fe\u4ee3\u306e\u91d1\u878d\u7406\u8ad6\u306f\u3001\u8cc7\u7523\u4fa1\u683c\u304c\u5165\u624b\u53ef\u80fd\u306a\u3059\u3079\u3066\u306e\u60c5\u5831\u3092\u5b8c\u5168\u306b\u53cd\u6620\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u5e02\u5834\u306b\u52dd\u3061\u7d9a\u3051\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306f\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3068\u4fe1\u3058\u3066\u3044\u308b\u300c\u52b9\u7387\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u4eee\u8aac\u300d\uff08EMH\uff09\u3092\u51fa\u767a\u70b9\u3068\u3057\u3066\u63a1\u7528\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3088\u304f\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u73fe\u5b9f\u306e\u5e02\u5834\u306f\u5b8c\u5168\u306b\u52b9\u7387\u7684\u3067\u3082\u3001\u5b8c\u5168\u306b\u975e\u52b9\u7387\u7684\u3067\u3082\u306a\u304f\u591a\u5c64\u7684\u3067\u975e\u5bfe\u79f0\u306a\u60c5\u5831\u306e\u5834<\/strong>\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3053\u306e\u74b0\u5883\u3067\u306f\u3001\u5c0f\u58f2\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c0\u30fc\u304c\u81ea\u8eab\u306e\u60c5\u5831\u306e\u7acb\u5834\u3068\u884c\u52d5\u306e\u5236\u9650\u3092\u660e\u78ba\u306b\u7406\u89e3\u3057\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3001\u300c\u52e4\u52c9\u3060\u304c\u975e\u52b9\u7387\u300d\u306a\u53d6\u5f15\u306e\u7f60\u306b\u7c21\u5358\u306b\u9665\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u672c\u7a3f\u3067\u306f\u3001\u3053\u306e\u69cb\u9020\u7684\u73fe\u5b9f\u3092\u4e09\u6b21\u5143\u304b\u3089\u5206\u6790\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

1. \u73fe\u5b9f\u304b\u3089\u9038\u8131\u3057\u305f\u52b9\u7387\u7684\u306a\u5e02\u5834\u306e 3 \u3064\u306e\u5f62\u614b<\/p>\n

Fama (1970) \u306f\u3001\u5e02\u5834\u306e\u52b9\u7387\u6027\u3092 3 \u3064\u306e\u30ab\u30c6\u30b4\u30ea\u30fc\u306b\u5206\u985e\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5f31\u3044\u5f62\u5f0f\u304c\u6709\u52b9<\/strong>: \u4fa1\u683c\u306b\u306f\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u53d6\u5f15\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u304c\u3059\u3079\u3066\u53cd\u6620\u3055\u308c\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u30c6\u30af\u30cb\u30ab\u30eb\u5206\u6790\u306f\u7121\u52b9\u3067\u3059\u3002 \u30bb\u30df\u30b9\u30c8\u30ed\u30f3\u30b0\u30d5\u30a9\u30fc\u30e0\u6709\u52b9<\/strong>: \u4fa1\u683c\u306f\u3059\u3079\u3066\u306e\u516c\u958b\u60c5\u5831\u3092\u53cd\u6620\u3057\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c0\u30e1\u30f3\u30bf\u30eb\u30ba\u5206\u6790\u3067\u306f\u7d99\u7d9a\u7684\u306a\u5229\u76ca\u3092\u4e0a\u3052\u308b\u306e\u306f\u56f0\u96e3\u3067\u3059\u3002 \u5f37\u529b\u306a\u5f62\u5f0f\u304c\u6709\u52b9<\/strong>: \u4fa1\u683c\u306b\u306f\u3059\u3079\u3066\u306e\u60c5\u5831 (\u30a4\u30f3\u30b5\u30a4\u30c0\u30fc\u60c5\u5831\u3092\u542b\u3080) \u304c\u542b\u307e\u308c\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u5206\u6790\u306f\u7121\u52b9\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5b9f\u969b\u306b\u306f\u3001 \u4e3b\u6d41\u306e\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u306f\u5f31\u3044\u5f62\u304b\u3089\u6e96\u5f37\u3044\u5f62<\/strong>\u306b\u8fd1\u3044\u72b6\u614b\u306b\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3064\u307e\u308a\u3001\u9ad8\u983b\u5ea6\u30a2\u30eb\u30b4\u30ea\u30ba\u30e0\u306f\u516c\u7684\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u8fc5\u901f\u306b\u6d88\u5316\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u671f\u5f85\u3084\u5730\u653f\u5b66\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u306a\u3069\u306e\u3042\u3044\u307e\u3044\u306a\u60c5\u5831\u306e\u89e3\u91c8\u306b\u306f\u4f9d\u7136\u3068\u3057\u3066\u30ae\u30e3\u30c3\u30d7\u304c\u3042\u308a\u3001\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u306a\u4fa1\u683c\u306e\u9038\u8131\u306b\u3064\u306a\u304c\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u305f\u3060\u3057\u3001\u3053\u308c\u3089\u306e\u504f\u5dee\u30a6\u30a3\u30f3\u30c9\u30a6\u306f\u975e\u5e38\u306b\u77ed\u304f (\u591a\u304f\u306e\u5834\u5408\u3001\u30df\u30ea\u79d2\u5358\u4f4d\u3067\u6e2c\u5b9a\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3059)\u3001\u30ad\u30e3\u30d7\u30c1\u30e3\u3059\u308b\u306b\u306f\u5f37\u529b\u306a\u30b3\u30f3\u30d4\u30e5\u30fc\u30c6\u30a3\u30f3\u30b0\u80fd\u529b\u3068\u4f4e\u9045\u5ef6\u30c1\u30e3\u30cd\u30eb\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3053\u308c\u304c\u6a5f\u95a2\u3068\u5c0f\u58f2\u696d\u8005\u306e\u9593\u306e\u6700\u521d\u306e\u30ae\u30e3\u30c3\u30d7<\/strong>\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

2. \u60c5\u5831\u30ec\u30d9\u30eb: \u8ab0\u304c\u4fa1\u683c\u3092\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3057\u3001\u8ab0\u304c\u30d5\u30a9\u30ed\u30fc\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u304b?<\/p>\n

\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u306b\u306f\u660e\u78ba\u306a\u60c5\u5831\u4f1d\u9054\u30c1\u30a7\u30fc\u30f3<\/strong>\u304c\u5b58\u5728\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5143\u306e\u60c5\u5831\u6e90<\/strong>: \u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u3001\u7d71\u8a08\u5c40\u3001\u4f01\u696d\u8ca1\u52d9\u5831\u544a\u66f8 (\u516c\u958b\u76f4\u5f8c\u306b\u6a5f\u95a2\u306e\u30db\u30c3\u30c8\u30e9\u30a4\u30f3\u3067\u53ce\u96c6)\u3002 \u7b2c 1 \u30ec\u30d9\u30eb\u306e\u89e3\u91c8\u5c64<\/strong>: \u6295\u8cc7\u9280\u884c\u306e\u8abf\u67fb\u90e8\u9580\u3001\u30de\u30af\u30ed \u30d8\u30c3\u30b8 \u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3068\u7d44\u307f\u5408\u308f\u305b\u3066\u53d6\u5f15\u30b7\u30b0\u30ca\u30eb\u3092\u8fc5\u901f\u306b\u751f\u6210\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002 \u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u63d0\u4f9b\u5c64<\/strong>: \u30de\u30fc\u30b1\u30c3\u30c8\u30e1\u30fc\u30ab\u30fc\u306f\u6ce8\u6587\u30d5\u30ed\u30fc\u3068\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u30a8\u30af\u30b9\u30dd\u30fc\u30b8\u30e3\u30fc\u306b\u57fa\u3065\u3044\u3066\u76f8\u5834\u3092\u52d5\u7684\u306b\u8abf\u6574\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002 \u5c0f\u58f2\u30d5\u30a9\u30ed\u30fc\u5c64<\/strong>: \u30cb\u30e5\u30fc\u30b9\u3001\u30bd\u30fc\u30b7\u30e3\u30eb \u30e1\u30c7\u30a3\u30a2\u3001\u53d6\u5f15\u30d7\u30e9\u30c3\u30c8\u30d5\u30a9\u30fc\u30e0\u3092\u901a\u3058\u3066\u6570\u79d2\u304b\u3089\u6570\u5206\u306e\u9045\u5ef6\u3067\u60c5\u5831\u3092\u53d7\u3051\u53d6\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5c0f\u58f2\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c0\u30fc\u306f\u901a\u5e38\u3001\u30c1\u30a7\u30fc\u30f3\u306e\u672b\u7aef\u306b\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3057\u3001\u5f7c\u3089\u304c\u76ee\u306b\u3059\u308b\u300c\u4fa1\u683c\u300d\u306f\u3059\u3067\u306b\u3001\u524d\u306e\u5c64\u306e\u30b2\u30fc\u30e0\u306e\u7d50\u679c\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3053\u306e\u6642\u671f\u306b\u5e02\u5834\u306b\u53c2\u5165\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u306f\u3001 \u5b9f\u306f\u60c5\u5831\u6e1b\u8870\u5e2f\u3067\u306e\u30c6\u30fc\u30eb\u5909\u52d5\u306e\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u3092\u8ca0\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b<\/strong>\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002\u3055\u3089\u306b\u91cd\u8981\u306a\u3053\u3068\u306f\u3001\u591a\u6570\u306e\u500b\u4eba\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\u304c\u540c\u3058\u30cb\u30e5\u30fc\u30b9\uff08\u300c\u975e\u8fb2\u696d\u90e8\u9580\u306e\u91d1\u30ed\u30f3\u30b0\u300d\u306a\u3069\uff09\u3092\u304d\u3063\u304b\u3051\u306b\u9023\u643a\u3057\u3066\u884c\u52d5\u3059\u308b\u5834\u5408\u3001\u3080\u3057\u308d\u91d1\u878d\u6a5f\u95a2\u304c\u9006\u65b9\u5411\u306b\u53ce\u7a6b\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306e\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u306e\u6e90\u3068\u306a\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3060\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\u5e26\u6709\u91d1\u6761\u7684\u65e5\u5143\u949e\u7968\"<\/p>\n

3. \u884c\u52d5\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9: \u8a8d\u77e5\u306e\u9650\u754c\u304c\u69cb\u9020\u7684\u4e0d\u5229\u3092\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u5897\u5e45\u3055\u305b\u308b\u304b<\/p>\n

\u60c5\u5831\u306e\u4e0d\u5229\u306a\u70b9\u3092\u7121\u8996\u3057\u305f\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3082\u3001\u4eba\u9593\u306b\u5185\u5728\u3059\u308b\u8a8d\u77e5\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9\u306f\u4f53\u7cfb\u7684\u306b\u610f\u601d\u6c7a\u5b9a\u306e\u8cea\u3092\u640d\u306a\u3046\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u78ba\u8a3c\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9<\/strong> (\u78ba\u8a3c\u30d0\u30a4\u30a2\u30b9) : \u81ea\u5206\u306e\u610f\u898b\u3092\u88cf\u4ed8\u3051\u308b\u60c5\u5831\u306e\u307f\u306b\u7126\u70b9\u3092\u5f53\u3066\u3001\u5426\u5b9a\u7684\u306a\u8a3c\u62e0\u3092\u7121\u8996\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3002 \u904e\u4fe1<\/strong>\uff08\u904e\u4fe1\uff09\uff1a\u81ea\u5206\u306e\u5206\u6790\u80fd\u529b\u3092\u904e\u5927\u8a55\u4fa1\u3057\u3001\u5e02\u5834\u306e\u30e9\u30f3\u30c0\u30e0\u6027\u3092\u904e\u5c0f\u8a55\u4fa1\u3059\u308b\u3002 \u640d\u5931\u56de\u907f<\/strong> (\u640d\u5931\u56de\u907f) : \u640d\u5931\u3092\u6050\u308c\u3066\u5229\u76ca\u3092\u65e9\u671f\u306b\u30b9\u30c8\u30c3\u30d7\u3057\u305f\u308a\u3001\u6ce8\u6587\u3092\u9577\u671f\u9593\u4fdd\u6301\u3057\u305f\u308a\u3057\u3066\u3001\u6226\u7565\u306e\u4e00\u8cab\u6027\u3092\u7834\u58ca\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

Barber & Odean (2000) \u306f\u3001\u6570\u4e07\u306e\u5c0f\u58f2\u53e3\u5ea7\u3092\u8abf\u67fb\u3057\u3001 \u305d\u306e\u7d50\u679c\u53d6\u5f15\u983b\u5ea6\u304c\u9ad8\u304f\u306a\u308b\u307b\u3069\u7d14\u5229\u76ca\u304c\u6e1b\u5c11\u3059\u308b<\/strong>\u3053\u3068\u3092\u767a\u898b\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u4e3b\u306a\u7406\u7531\u306f\u3001\u4e0a\u8a18\u306e\u504f\u5dee\u306b\u53d6\u5f15\u30b3\u30b9\u30c8\u3092\u52a0\u3048\u305f\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3059\u3002\u30ec\u30d0\u30ec\u30c3\u30b8\u304c\u304b\u304b\u3063\u305f\u74b0\u5883\u3067\u306f\u3001\u3053\u306e\u5f71\u97ff\u306f\u3055\u3089\u306b\u5897\u5e45\u3055\u308c\u3001\u5c0f\u3055\u306a\u8a8d\u77e5\u30a8\u30e9\u30fc\u304c\u4e0d\u91e3\u308a\u5408\u3044\u306a\u8cc7\u672c\u640d\u5931\u306b\u3064\u306a\u304c\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

4. \u5408\u7406\u7684\u306a\u53c2\u52a0\u306e\u524d\u63d0\u6761\u4ef6\uff1a\u300c\u9650\u5b9a\u3055\u308c\u305f\u5408\u7406\u6027\u300d\u306e\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3065\u3051\u306e\u53d7\u3051\u5165\u308c<\/p>\n

\u4e0a\u8a18\u306e\u69cb\u9020\u7684\u73fe\u5b9f\u306b\u76f4\u9762\u3057\u3066\u3001\u5c0f\u58f2\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c0\u30fc\u306f\u300c\u9650\u5b9a\u3055\u308c\u305f\u5408\u7406\u6027\u53c2\u52a0\u8005<\/strong>\u300d\u306e\u81ea\u5df1\u8a8d\u8b58\u3092\u78ba\u7acb\u3059\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u306a\u4fa1\u683c\u3092\u4e00\u8cab\u3057\u3066\u4e88\u6e2c\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306f\u3067\u304d\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u3092\u8a8d\u8b58\u3057\u3001 \u4ee3\u308f\u308a\u306b\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u7ba1\u7406\u3068\u884c\u52d5\u898f\u5f8b<\/strong>\u306b\u7126\u70b9\u3092\u5f53\u3066\u307e\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u306f\u307b\u3068\u3093\u3069\u306e\u5834\u5408\u300c\u307b\u307c\u52b9\u7387\u7684\u300d\u306a\u72b6\u614b\u306b\u3042\u308a\u3001\u7570\u5e38\u306a\u6a5f\u4f1a\u306f\u307e\u308c\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001 \u6301\u7d9a\u671f\u9593\u306f\u77ed\u3044<\/strong>\u3053\u3068\u3092\u7406\u89e3\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u53d6\u5f15\u3092\u6c7a\u5b9a\u8ad6\u7684\u306a\u88c1\u5b9a\u53d6\u5f15\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u78ba\u7387\u30b2\u30fc\u30e0<\/strong>\u3068\u3057\u3066\u6271\u3044\u3001\u4e00\u5ea6\u306e\u52dd\u3061\u8ca0\u3051\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u9577\u671f\u7684\u306a\u671f\u5f85\u5024\u306b\u7126\u70b9\u3092\u5f53\u3066\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

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