{"id":7975,"date":"2025-12-15T16:36:58","date_gmt":"2025-12-15T08:36:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/?p=7975"},"modified":"2025-12-15T16:37:03","modified_gmt":"2025-12-15T08:37:03","slug":"%e6%9d%a0%e6%9d%86%e7%9a%84%e5%8f%8c%e9%9d%a2%e6%80%a7%e4%b8%8e%e9%9b%b6%e5%94%ae%e4%ba%a4%e6%98%93%e8%80%85%e7%9a%84%e8%ae%a4%e7%9f%a5%e7%9b%b2%e5%8c%ba","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/ko\/\uc544\uce74\uc774\ube0c\/7975","title":{"rendered":"\ub808\ubc84\ub9ac\uc9c0\uc758 \uc591\uba74\uc801 \uc131\uaca9\uacfc \uc18c\ub9e4\uc5c5\uc790\uc758 \uc778\uc9c0\uc801 \uc0ac\uac01\uc9c0\ub300"},"content":{"rendered":"

\ucc28\uc561\uac70\ub798\uacc4\uc57d(CFD)\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \ub808\ubc84\ub9ac\uc9c0 \uc0c1\ud488\uc758 \uc778\uae30\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ucc38\uc5ec\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ubb38\ud131\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \ub0ae\uc544\uc84c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \ub808\ubc84\ub9ac\uc9c0\uc5d0\ub294 \ubcf8\uc9c8\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc120\uc545\uc774 \uc5c6\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8 \uc601\ud5a5\uc740 \uc704\ud5d8\uc758 \uc131\uaca9\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc0ac\uc6a9\uc790\uc758 \uc774\ud574 \uc815\ub3c4\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ub2ec\ub77c\uc9d1\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub2e4\uc218\uc758 \uc2e4\uc99d\uc801 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \uc18c\ub9e4\uc5c5\uc790\uc758 \uc7a5\uae30 \uc190\uc2e4\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \uc6d0\uc778\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc608\uce21 \ubd88\uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \ub808\ubc84\ub9ac\uc9c0 \uba54\ucee4\ub2c8\uc998\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc624\ud574<\/strong>\uc640 \uccb4\uacc4\uc801\uc778 \uc778\uc9c0 \ud3b8\ud5a5<\/strong>\uc774 \uc911\ucca9\ub41c \ud6a8\uacfc\uc778 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubcf8 \uae00\uc740 \uae08\uc735\uc774\ub860\uc5d0\uc11c \ucd9c\ubc1c\ud558\uc5ec \uc138 \uac00\uc9c0 \uc8fc\uc694 \ub9f9\uc810\uc744 \ubd84\uc11d\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

1. \ub808\ubc84\ub9ac\uc9c0\ub294 \uc218\uc775\uc744 \ud655\ub300\ud558\uace0 \"\uc2dc\uac04 \uc190\uc2e4\"\uc744 \ud655\ub300\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ub9ce\uc740 \uc0ac\uc6a9\uc790\ub294 \ub808\ubc84\ub9ac\uc9c0\ub97c '\uc18c\uc561\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \ud070 \uae08\uc561\uc744 \uc5bb\ub294 \uac83'\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\ud574\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc554\ubb35\uc801\uc778 \uc2dc\uac04 \ube44\uc6a9 \uad6c\uc870<\/strong>\ub97c \ubb34\uc2dc\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc775\uc77c \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \ubcf4\uc720\ud560 \uacbd\uc6b0 \ud574\ub2f9 \uacc4\uc88c\ub294 \uc2a4\uc651 \uc774\uc790\ub97c \uc9c0\ubd88\ud558\uac70\ub098 \ubc1b\uc544\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4(\uc2a4\uc651). \uacc4\uc0b0 \uacf5\uc2dd\uc740 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc2a4\uc651=\ub78f \uaddc\ubaa8\u00d7\uacc4\uc57d \uaddc\ubaa8\u00d7\uc774\uc790\uc728 \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\u00d7\uc774\uc790 \ubc1c\uc0dd \uc77c\uc218<\/p>\n

\uae08\ub9ac\uac00 \ub192\uc740 \ud1b5\ud654\ub098 \uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \ub9e4\uc218(\uc6d0\uc720, \uc8fc\uac00\uc9c0\uc218 \ub4f1) \ud1b5\ud654\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub9e4\ub3c4 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc758 \uacbd\uc6b0, \uc7a5\uae30 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc740 \uc2a4\uc651 \ub204\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uc218\uc775\uc774 \uc7a0\uc2dd\ub418\uac70\ub098 \uc2ec\uc9c0\uc5b4 \"\ubc29\ud5a5\uc740 \ub9de\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc190\uc2e4\"\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc5ed\uc124\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub354 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uac83\uc740 \ub808\ubc84\ub9ac\uc9c0\uac00 \ub192\uc744\uc218\ub85d \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \ud544\uc694\ud55c \uc99d\uac70\uae08 \ube44\uc728\uc774 \ub0ae\uc544\uc9c0\uc9c0\ub9cc \uac00\uaca9 \uc5ed\ubcc0\ub3d9 \ubc0f \uccad\uc0b0 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \ube44\uc120\ud615\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc99d\uac00\ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4<\/strong>. \uc774\ub294 \ub192\uc740 \ub808\ubc84\ub9ac\uc9c0\uac00 \ubcf8\uc9c8\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \"\uc2dc\uac04\uc744 \uacf5\uac04\uc73c\ub85c \uad50\ud658\"\ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \uc758\ubbf8\ud558\uba70 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84\uc758 \uc18c\ub9e4 \uc0ac\uc6a9\uc790\ub294 \uc2dc\uac04 \ucc28\uc6d0\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ubbfc\uac10\ub3c4\uac00 \ubd80\uc871\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

2. \uc2ac\ub9ac\ud53c\uc9c0\ub294 \ud50c\ub7ab\ud3fc \ubb38\uc81c\uac00 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubbf8\uc138\uad6c\uc870\uc758 \ubd88\uac00\ud53c\ud55c \uc0b0\ubb3c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc8fc\uc694 \uc0ac\uac74\uc774\ub098 \uc720\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \uc57d\ud55c \uae30\uac04 \ub3d9\uc548 \uc8fc\ubb38 \uac70\ub798 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uacf5\uc2dc \uac00\uaca9\uc744 \ubc97\uc5b4\ub098\ub294 \ud604\uc0c1(\uc608: \uc2ac\ub9ac\ud53c\uc9c0)\uc740 \ud50c\ub7ab\ud3fc \uc2e4\ud589 \ud488\uc9c8\uc5d0 \uae30\uc778\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\uc6b0\uac00 \ub9ce\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubbf8\uc138\uad6c\uc870 \uc774\ub860\uc758 \uad00\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcfc \ub54c \uc2ac\ub9ac\ud53c\uc9c0\ub294 \ubd80\uc871\ud55c \uc8fc\ubb38\uc7a5 \uae4a\uc774<\/strong>\uc640 \ub9c8\ucf13 \uba54\uc774\ucee4\uc758 \uc704\ud5d8 \ud68c\ud53c \ud589\ub3d9<\/strong>\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud558\ub294 \uc790\uc5f0\uc2a4\ub7ec\uc6b4 \uacb0\uacfc\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

Glosten-Milgrom \ubaa8\ub378\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74, \uc815\ubcf4 \ube44\ub300\uce6d\uc774 \uc2ec\ud654\ub418\ub294 \uacbd\uc6b0(\uc608: \ub370\uc774\ud130 \uacf5\uac1c \uc804), \ub9c8\ucf13\uba54\uc774\ucee4\ub294 \uc5ed\uc120\ud0dd \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \ubc29\uc9c0\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc801\uadf9\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub9e4\uc218\ud638\uac00 \uc2a4\ud504\ub808\ub4dc\ub97c \ud655\ub300\ud558\uac70\ub098 \uc8fc\ubb38\uc744 \ucde8\uc18c\ud558\uc5ec \uc989\uac01\uc801\uc778 \uc720\ub3d9\uc131 \uace0\uac08\uc744 \ucd08\ub798\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac\ub294 \ucd5c\uace0\uc758 \uae30\uad00\uc870\ucc28 \ud558\ub77d\uc138\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uba74\ud574 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc720\uc77c\ud55c \ucc28\uc774\uc810\uc740 \uc54c\uace0\ub9ac\uc998 \ubd84\ud560 \ubc0f \ub2e4\uc911 LP \ub77c\uc6b0\ud305\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \uc601\ud5a5\uc744 \uc904\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc18c\ub9e4 \uc0ac\uc6a9\uc790\uac00 \uc804\ub7b5\uc758 \ub0b4\uacb0\ud568\uc131 \uc124\uacc4\uc5d0 \uc2ac\ub9ac\ud53c\uc9c0\ub97c \ud3ec\ud568\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc73c\uba74 \ub192\uc740 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \"\uc804\ub7b5 \ub17c\ub9ac\ub294 \uc815\ud655\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc2e4\ud589 \uacb0\uacfc\uac00 \uc2e4\ud328\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4\"\ub77c\ub294 \ub51c\ub808\ub9c8\uc5d0 \uc27d\uac8c \uc9c1\uba74\ud558\uac8c \ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\"\u770b\u80a1\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u56fe\u8868\u7684\u6ce2\u52a8\"<\/p>\n

3. \uc2dc\ubbac\ub808\uc774\uc158\uacfc \uc2e4\uc81c \uac70\ub798\uc758 \ubcf8\uc9c8\uc801\uc778 \ucc28\uc774\uc810: \uc704\ud5d8 \uc778\uc2dd\uc758 \uc2e0\uacbd\uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \uae30\ubc18<\/p>\n

\ud589\ub3d9 \uae08\uc735 \uc5f0\uad6c(\uc608: Loewenstein & Lerner, 2003)\ub294 \"\uac00\uc0c1 \uc190\uc2e4\"\uacfc \"\uc2e4\uc81c \uc190\uc2e4\"\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc778\uac04 \ub450\ub1cc\uc758 \uc2e0\uacbd \ubc18\uc751\uc5d0 \uc0c1\ub2f9\ud55c \ucc28\uc774\uac00 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uc9c0\uc801\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc2dc\ubbac\ub808\uc774\uc158\ub41c \uc124\uba85\uc5d0\uc11c \uc804\ub450\uc5fd \ud53c\uc9c8(\ud569\ub9ac\uc801\uc778 \uc758\uc0ac \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \ub2f4\ub2f9)\uc740 \ub9e4\uc6b0 \ud65c\ub3d9\uc801\uc778 \ubc18\uba74 \ud3b8\ub3c4\uccb4(\uac10\uc815 \uc911\ucd94)\ub294 \uc57d\ud558\uac8c \ud65c\uc131\ud654\ub418\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc2e4\uc81c \ub3c8\uc774 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ub418\uba74 \uac10\uc815 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc774 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \uc9c0\ubc30\ub418\uc5b4 \uc704\ud5d8 \uc120\ud638\ub3c4\ub098 \ubcf5\uc218 \uac70\ub798\uac00 \uac11\uc790\uae30 \uac10\uc18c\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \"\uc778\uc9c0\uc801 \uaca9\ucc28\"\ub294 \uc65c \ub9ce\uc740 \uc0ac\uc6a9\uc790\uac00 \uc2dc\ubbac\ub808\uc774\uc158\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uac15\ub825\ud558\uac8c \uc218\ud589\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc2e4\uc81c \uac70\ub798\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uaddc\uc728\uc744 \uc790\uc8fc \uc704\ubc18\ud558\ub294\uc9c0 \uc124\uba85\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubb38\uc81c\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc704\ud5d8 \uc778\uc2dd \uba54\ucee4\ub2c8\uc998\uc758 \uadfc\ubcf8\uc801\uc778 \uc804\ud658\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uac10\uc815\uc801 \uac04\uc12d\uc744 \uace0\ub824\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \uac70\ub798 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc740 \uc2e4\uc81c \uac70\ub798\uc5d0\uc11c \uacc4\uc18d\ud574\uc11c \ud6a8\uacfc\uc801\uc778 \ud6a8\uacfc\ub97c \ubc1c\ud718\ud558\uae30 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6b8 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

4. \uc9c0\uc18d\uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \ucc38\uc5ec\uc758 \uc804\uc81c\uc870\uac74: '\uc774\uc775 \uc9c0\ud5a5'\uc5d0\uc11c '\uc0dd\uc874 \uc9c0\ud5a5'\uc73c\ub85c\uc758 \uc804\ud658<\/p>\n

\ud604\ub300 \ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624 \uc774\ub860(MPT)\uc740 \uc7a5\uae30 \ubcf5\ub9ac\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec\uc740 \ub192\uc740 \uc218\uc775\uc744 \ucd94\uad6c\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \ud1b5\uc81c<\/strong>\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uac15\uc870\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. Kahneman\uc758 \uc804\ub9dd \uc774\ub860\uc740 50%\uc758 \uc190\uc2e4\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud558\uba74 \uc790\ubcf8\uc744 \ud68c\uc218\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 100%\uc758 \uc774\uc775\uc774 \ud544\uc694\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \uc0ac\uc2e4\ub3c4 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc90d\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub808\ubc84\ub9ac\uc9c0 \uac70\ub798\uc758 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ube44\ub300\uce6d\uc131\uc740 \uadf9\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc99d\ud3ed\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ub530\ub77c\uc11c \uc131\uc219\ud55c \ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc5b4\ub294 \"\uc0dd\uc874 \uc6b0\uc120\" \ud504\ub808\uc784\uc6cc\ud06c\ub97c \uad6c\ucd95\ud574\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\ub2e8\uc77c \uac70\ub798\uc758 \uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc5c4\uaca9\ud558\uac8c \uc81c\ud55c\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4(\uc77c\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uacc4\uc815 \uc21c \uac00\uce58\uc758 1% \uc774\ud558). \uc720\ub3d9\uc131\uc774 \ub0ae\uc740 \uae30\uac04(\uc608: \ud734\uc77c, \uc8fc\uc694 \ud589\uc0ac \uc804\ud6c4)\uc5d0\ub294 \uacfc\ub2e4 \ub178\ucd9c\uc744 \ud53c\ud558\uc2ed\uc2dc\uc624. \"\uac70\ub798\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \uac83\ub3c4 \uc804\ub7b5\uc774\ub2e4\"\ub77c\ub294 \uac1c\ub150\uc744 \ubc1b\uc544\ub4e4\uc774\uace0 \uae30\ud68c \ube44\uc6a9\uc744 \uc704\ud5d8 \uad00\ub9ac \ube44\uc6a9\uc758 \uc77c\ubd80\ub85c \uac04\uc8fc\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc9c4\uc815\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc801\uc751\ub825\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ub3d9\ud5a5\uc744 \ud30c\uc545\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc788\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \uadf9\ubcf5\ud558\uace0 \uc758\uc0ac \uacb0\uc815 \ub2a5\ub825\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0<\/strong>\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uacb0\ub860: \uba54\ucee4\ub2c8\uc998\uc744 \uc774\ud574\ud574\uc57c\ub9cc \ub3c4\uad6c\ub97c \uc81c\uc5b4\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4<\/p>\n

\ub808\ubc84\ub9ac\uc9c0 \uac70\ub798\uc758 \ubcf8\uc9c8\uc740 \uc704\ud5d8 \uac00\uaca9 \ucc45\uc815 \uae30\ub2a5\uc744 \ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. Wmax\ub294 \uc0ac\uc6a9\uc790\uac00 \ucc38\uc5ec \uc5ec\ubd80\uc640 \ubc29\ubc95\uc744 \uacb0\uc815\ud558\uae30 \uc804\uc5d0 \uba3c\uc800 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \uc791\ub3d9\ud558\ub294\uc9c0<\/strong>\uc640 \uc0dd\uac01\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\uc2dd<\/strong>\uc744 \uc774\ud574\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ud56d\uc0c1 \uc8fc\uc7a5\ud574 \uc654\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub3c4\uad6c\ub294 \uc6b4\ubc18 \uc218\ub2e8\uc77c \ubfd0\uc774\uace0 \uc778\uc9c0\ub294 \ud574\uc790\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub808\ubc84\ub9ac\uc9c0, \uc720\ub3d9\uc131 \ubc0f \ud589\ub3d9 \ud3b8\ud5a5\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uccb4\uacc4\uc801\uc778 \uc774\ud574\ub97c \ud655\ub9bd\ud574\uc57c\ub9cc \uc18c\ub9e4 \uac70\ub798\uc790\uac00 \ubcf5\uc7a1\ud55c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c \uc9c4\uc815\uc73c\ub85c \uc9c0\uc18d \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \ucc38\uc5ec\ub97c \ub2ec\uc131\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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