{"id":8000,"date":"2025-12-16T16:45:55","date_gmt":"2025-12-16T08:45:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/?p=8000"},"modified":"2025-12-16T16:46:01","modified_gmt":"2025-12-16T08:46:01","slug":"%e4%ba%a4%e6%98%93%e4%b8%ad%e7%9a%84%e8%ae%a4%e7%9f%a5%e8%be%b9%e7%95%8c%ef%bc%9a%e9%a3%8e%e9%99%a9%e5%8f%af%e8%ae%a1%e7%ae%97%ef%bc%8c%e4%b8%8d%e7%a1%ae%e5%ae%9a%e6%80%a7%e4%b8%8d%e5%8f%af","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/ko\/\uc544\uce74\uc774\ube0c\/8000","title":{"rendered":"\uac70\ub798\uc758 \uc778\uc9c0\uc801 \uacbd\uacc4: \uc704\ud5d8\uc740 \uacc4\uc0b0\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc9c0\ub9cc \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc740 \uacc4\uc0b0\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4."},"content":{"rendered":"

\uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\uc11c '\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c'\ub77c\ub294 \ub2e8\uc5b4\ub294 \ud754\ud788 \uc77c\ubc18\uc801\uc778 \uc758\ubbf8\ub85c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ub418\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uadf8 \uc774\uba74\uc5d0\ub294 \uc644\uc804\ud788 \ub2e4\ub978 \ub450 \uac00\uc9c0 \uc0c1\ud0dc, \uc989 \uc815\ub7c9\ud654 \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uc704\ud5d8<\/strong>(\uc704\ud5d8)\uacfc \uc815\ub7c9\ud654\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\ub294 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131<\/strong>(\ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131)\uc774 \uc874\uc7ac\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uad6c\ubcc4\uc740 1921\ub144 \uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc790 Frank H. Knight\uac00 \ucc98\uc74c \uc81c\uc548\ud588\uc73c\uba70 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud589\ub3d9\uacfc \uc758\uc0ac\uacb0\uc815\uc758 \ud55c\uacc4\ub97c \uc774\ud574\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud55c \ud575\uc2ec \ud504\ub808\uc784\uc6cc\ud06c\ub85c \ub0a8\uc544 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\uc758 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc774 \ub458\uc744 \ud63c\ub3d9\ud558\uba74 \uc804\ub7b5 \uc2e4\ud328\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \ubfd0\ub9cc \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uccb4\uacc4\uc801\uc778 \uc624\ud310\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

1. Knightian \uad6c\ubcc4: \uc704\ud5d8\uc5d0\ub294 \ud655\ub960\uc774 \uc788\uace0 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc5d0\ub294 \ubd84\ud3ec\uac00 \uc5c6\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc704\ud5d8<\/strong>(\uc704\ud5d8): \ubbf8\ub798\uc758 \uacb0\uacfc\ub294 \uc54c \uc218 \uc5c6\uc9c0\ub9cc \ud655\ub960 \ubd84\ud3ec\ub294 \uc54c\ub824\uc838 \uc788\uac70\ub098 \ucd94\uc815\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc0ac\uc2e4\uc744 \ub9d0\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4, \ub3d9\uc804\uc744 \ub358\uc9c8 \ub54c \uc55e\uba74\uc774 \ub098\uc62c \ud655\ub960\uc740 50%\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uacfc\uac70 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc740 \uc790\uc0b0\uc758 \ubbf8\ub798 \uac00\uaca9 \ubc94\uc704\ub97c \ucd94\uc815\ud558\ub294 \ub370 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ubcf4\ud5d8, \ud5e4\uc9c0, \ub2e4\uac01\ud654\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \ub3c4\uad6c\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uad00\ub9ac\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131<\/strong>(\ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131): \ubbf8\ub798 \uc0ac\uac74\uc758 \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uacb0\uacfc\uc640 \uadf8 \ud655\ub960\uc744 \uc54c \uc218 \uc5c6\uc74c\uc744 \uc758\ubbf8\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4, \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uac08\ub4f1\uc774 \ud655\ub300\ub420\uc9c0, \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uac11\uc790\uae30 \uc815\ucc45 \ud504\ub808\uc784\uc6cc\ud06c\ub97c \ubc14\uafc0\uc9c0, \uc2e0\uae30\uc220\uc774 \uc0b0\uc5c5 \uad6c\uc870\ub97c \ub4a4\ud754\ub4e4\uc9c0 \uc5ec\ubd80 \ub4f1\uc774 \uc774\uc5d0 \ud574\ub2f9\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc0ac\uac74\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801 \uc120\ub840\uac00 \uc5c6\uc73c\uba70 \ud1b5\uacc4 \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \uc548\uc815\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uce21\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uae08\uc735 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84\uc758 \uc2dc\uac04\uc744 \"\ub9ac\uc2a4\ud06c\" \ubd84\uc57c\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcf4\ub0b4\uace0 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \uc774\ub294 VaR \ubc0f \uc2a4\ud2b8\ub808\uc2a4 \ud14c\uc2a4\ud2b8\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \ub3c4\uad6c\ub97c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\uc5ec \uad00\ub9ac\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \ud070 \uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \ucd08\ub798\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc740 '\uc704\ud5d8\ub3c4\uac00 \ub192\ub2e4'\uace0 \uc798\ubabb \ud310\ub2e8\ub418\uc9c0\ub9cc \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c\ub294 '\uc2ec\uac01\ud55c \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131'\uc744 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0b4\ub294 \ube14\ub799\uc2a4\uc644 \uc0ac\uac74\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

2. \ud604\ub300 \uae08\uc735 \ubaa8\ub378\uc758 \ub9f9\uc810: \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \uc704\ud5d8\uc73c\ub85c \ub2e8\uc21c\ud654<\/p>\n

CAPM \ubc0f Black-Scholes \ubaa8\ub378\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uc8fc\ub958 \uae08\uc735 \uc774\ub860\uc740 \"\uce21\uc815 \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uc704\ud5d8\"\uc744 \uc804\uc81c\ub85c \ud558\uba70 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc54c\ub824\uc9c4 \ubd84\ud3ec(\uc608: \uc815\uaddc \ubd84\ud3ec)\ub97c \ub530\ub978\ub2e4\uace0 \uac00\uc815\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc2e4\uc81c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc740 Fat Tails<\/strong> \ud604\uc0c1\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6c0\uc744 \uacaa\ub294 \uacbd\uc6b0\uac00 \ub9ce\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf9\ub2e8\uc801\uc778 \uc0ac\uac74\uc740 \ubaa8\ub378\uc5d0\uc11c \uc608\uc0c1\ud55c \uac83\ubcf4\ub2e4 \ud6e8\uc52c \ub354 \uc790\uc8fc \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

2008\ub144 \uae08\uc735 \uc704\uae30, 2020\ub144 \ub9c8\uc774\ub108\uc2a4 \uc6d0\uc720 \uac00\uaca9, 2022\ub144 \uc601\uad6d \uc5f0\uae08 \uc704\uae30\uc640 \uac19\uc740 \uc0ac\uac74\uc740 \ubaa8\ub450 \ubaa8\ub378\uc774 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131(\uc608: \ub808\ubc84\ub9ac\uc9c0 \uccb4\uc778 \uc911\ub2e8 \ubc0f \uc815\ucc45 \ubcc0\uacbd)\uc744 \uc815\ub7c9\ud654 \uac00\ub2a5\ud55c \uc704\ud5d8\uc73c\ub85c \uc798\ubabb \ubd84\ub958\ud55c \uacb0\uacfc\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubaa8\ub4e0 \ucc38\uac00\uc790\uac00 \ub3d9\uc77c\ud55c \"\uc704\ud5d8 \uc81c\uc5b4 \uac00\ub2a5\" \ub17c\ub9ac \uc138\ud2b8\uc5d0 \uc758\uc874\ud558\uba74 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc740 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc758 \uc601\ud5a5\uc5d0 \ub354\uc6b1 \ucde8\uc57d\ud574\uc9d1\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\"\u5546\u4eba\u5728\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5d29\u6e83\u65f6\u575a\u6301\u53cd\u5bf9\u6761\u5f62\u56fe\u7684\u4e0b\u964d\"<\/p>\n

3. \ud589\ub3d9 \ubc18\uc751\uc758 \ucc28\uc774: \uc704\ud5d8\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uba74\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uacfc \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uba74\ud558\ub294 \uac83<\/p>\n

\uc2ec\ub9ac\ud559 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \uc778\uac04\uc740 \ub450 \uac00\uc9c0 \uc720\ud615\uc758 \uc0c1\ud0dc\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc644\uc804\ud788 \ub2e4\ub978 \ub300\ucc98 \uba54\ucee4\ub2c8\uc998\uc744 \uac00\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc704\ud5d8\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uba74<\/strong>: \ud070 \uc774\uc775\uc744 \uc5bb\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc791\uc740 \uc190\uc2e4\uc744 \uac10\uc218\ud558\ub294 \ud655\ub960\ub860\uc801 \uc0ac\uace0\ub97c \uc0ac\uc6a9\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\ud5a5\uc774 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4(\uc608: \ubcf4\ud5d8 \uad6c\uc785, \uc190\uc808\ub9e4 \uc124\uc815). \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\ud568\uc5d0 \uc9c1\uba74\ud558\uae30<\/strong>: \ub1cc\ub294 \uc9c0\ub098\uce58\uac8c \ubcf4\uc218\uc801(\uc644\uc804 \ud68c\ud53c)\uc774\uac70\ub098 \uc11c\uc0ac\uc801 \ucd94\ub3d9(\uc608: \"\uc774\ubc88\uc740 \ub2e4\ub974\ub2e4\"\uace0 \ubbff\ub294 \ub4f1)\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ud658\ud558\uace0 \ud655\ub960 \ud310\ub2e8\uc744 \ud3ec\uae30\ud558\ub294 '\ubaa8\ud638\uc131 \ud610\uc624' \uc0c1\ud0dc\uc5d0 \ub4e4\uc5b4\uac11\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc18c\ub9e4 \uac70\ub798\uc790\ub294 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc815\ucc45 \ubcc0\ud654\ub098 \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uc704\uae30 \uc911\uc5d0 \ud6c4\uc790\uc758 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0 \ube60\uc9c0\ub294 \uacbd\uc6b0\uac00 \ub9ce\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubaa8\ub378\uc744 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\uace0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \ub5a0\ub0a0 \uc758\uc9c0\uac00 \uc5c6\ub294 \ub300\uc2e0 \ubbf8\ub514\uc5b4 \ub0b4\ub7ec\ud2f0\ube0c\ub098 \ucee4\ubba4\ub2c8\ud2f0 \uc815\uc11c\uc5d0 \uc758\uc874\ud558\uc5ec \uacb0\uc815\uc744 \ub0b4\ub9ac\ubbc0\ub85c \uac00\uc7a5 \uc8fc\uc758\ud574\uc57c \ud560 \ub54c \ub178\ucd9c\uc774 \ucd5c\ub300\ud654\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

4. \ud68c\ubcf5\ub825 \uc804\ub7b5 \uad6c\ucd95: \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \uc0b4\uc544\ub0a8\uae30<\/p>\n

\ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc740 \uc81c\uac70\ub420 \uc218 \uc5c6\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0 \ud569\ub9ac\uc801\uc778 \uc804\ub7b5\uc740 \uc608\uce21 \uc815\ud655\uc131\uc744 \ucd94\uad6c\ud558\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub294 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c \ud0c4\ub825\uc131<\/strong>(Resilience)\uc744 \ud5a5\uc0c1\uc2dc\ud0a4\ub294 \ub370 \ucd08\uc810\uc744 \ub9de\ucdb0\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc778\uc9c0 \uacbd\uacc4 \uc778\uc2dd<\/strong>: \ubaa8\ub378\ub9c1\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ubcc0\uc218(\uc608: \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131)\uc640 \ubaa8\ub378\ub9c1\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\ub294 \ubcc0\uc218(\uc608: \uc815\uce58\uc801 \ubcc0\uc774)\ub97c \uba85\ud655\ud788 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc5ec\ubd84 \uc790\ubcf8 \uc720\uc9c0<\/strong>: \uc804\uccb4 \ud3ec\uc9c0\uc158\uc744 \ud53c\ud558\uace0 \uadf9\ub2e8\uc801\uc778 \uc0c1\ud669 \uc774\ud6c4\uc5d0 \ub2e4\uc2dc \ucc38\uc5ec\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ub2a5\ub825\uc744 \ubcf4\uc7a5\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ucde8\uc131 \ubc29\uc9c0 \uc57d\ud55c \uad6c\uc870 \ucc44\ud0dd<\/strong>: Taleb\uc774 \ub9d0\ud588\ub4ef\uc774 \"\uc791\uc740 \uc190\uc2e4\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc \ud070 \uc774\uc775\" \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \uc124\uacc4\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub300\ubd80\ubd84\uc758 \uacbd\uc6b0 \uc190\uc2e4\uc740 \uc801\uace0 \uba87 \uac00\uc9c0 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\ud55c \uc774\ubca4\ud2b8\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \ube44\uc120\ud615 \uc774\uc775\uc744 \uc5bb\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc758\uc0ac\uacb0\uc815 \ube48\ub3c4 \uac10\uc18c<\/strong>: \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \ub192\uc744\uc218\ub85d \uc815\ubcf4 \uacf5\ubc31 \uae30\uac04 \ub3d9\uc548 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \uac15\uc81c\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc744 \ud53c\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \ub35c \uc801\uadf9\uc801\uc778 \uac1c\uc785\uc774 \uc774\ub8e8\uc5b4\uc838\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n

\uc9c4\uc815\ud55c \uc804\ubb38\uc131\uc740 '\ubbf8\ub798\ub97c \ub0b4\ub2e4\ubcf4\ub294 \uac83'\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \ubbf8\uc9c0\uc758 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0 \uacb8\uc190\ud558\uac8c \ub9de\uc11c \ucd5c\uc545\uc758 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc5d0 \ub300\ube44\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

\uacb0\ub860: \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc740 \uacb0\ud568\uc774 \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ubcf8\uc9c8\uc774\ub2e4<\/p>\n

\uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ucd08\uacfc\uc218\uc775 \uae30\ud68c\uac00 \uc874\uc7ac\ud558\ub294 \uc774\uc720\ub294 \ubc14\ub85c \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \uc644\uc804\ud788 \uac00\uaca9\uc73c\ub85c \ucc45\uc815\ub420 \uc218 \uc5c6\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc774\ub294 \"\uc704\ud5d8\uc744 \uc644\uc804\ud788 \ud1b5\uc81c\"\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \uc8fc\uc7a5\ud558\ub294 \ubaa8\ub4e0 \uc2dc\uc2a4\ud15c\uc774 \uc554\ubb35\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \ubb34\uc2dc\ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc758\ubbf8\uc774\uae30\ub3c4 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. Wmax\ub294 \ud56d\uc0c1 \ub2e4\uc74c\uc744 \uac15\uc870\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. '\uc54c \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uac83'\uacfc '\uc54c \uc218 \uc5c6\ub294 \uac83'\uc758 \uacbd\uacc4\ub97c \uc774\ud574\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc7a5\uae30\uc801\uc778 \uc0dd\uc874\uc744 \uc704\ud55c \uccab \ubc88\uc9f8 \ub2e8\uacc4\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4<\/strong>. \ud2b8\ub808\uc774\ub354\ub294 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc744 \uc81c\uac70\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc5c6\uc73c\uba70 \ubd88\ud655\uc2e4\uc131\uc774 \uc0ac\ub77c\uc9c0\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub3c4\ub85d \ud558\uae30\ub9cc \ud558\uba74 \ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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