{"id":10040,"date":"2026-05-27T16:14:03","date_gmt":"2026-05-27T08:14:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/?p=10040"},"modified":"2026-05-27T16:14:08","modified_gmt":"2026-05-27T08:14:08","slug":"wmax-%e9%87%8d%e7%a3%85%e5%88%a4%e6%96%ad-%e6%88%98%e4%ba%89%e5%85%b1%e8%af%86%e5%b4%a9%e5%a1%8c%ef%bc%8c%e7%be%8e%e4%bc%8a%e5%86%b2%e7%aa%81%e5%b7%b2%e8%bf%9b%e9%80%80%e4%b8%a4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/luu-tru\/10040","title":{"rendered":"Ph\u00e1n quy\u1ebft n\u1eb7ng n\u1ec1 c\u1ee7a Wmax - s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn trong chi\u1ebfn tranh \u0111\u00e3 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5, xung \u0111\u1ed9t M\u1ef9-Iran tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh t\u00ecnh th\u1ebf ti\u1ebfn tho\u00e1i l\u01b0\u1ee1ng nan"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u0129 m\u00f4 c\u1ee7a Wmax \u0111\u00e3 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t, xu h\u01b0\u1edbng th\u0103m d\u00f2 \u00fd ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bc\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u00e0 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n v\u00e0 tin r\u1eb1ng xung \u0111\u1ed9t M\u1ef9-Iran hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111ang r\u01a1i v\u00e0o t\u00ecnh th\u1ebf ti\u1ebfn tho\u00e1i l\u01b0\u1ee1ng nan k\u00e9p l\u00e0 \u201cb\u1ebf t\u1eafc qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 + h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb\u201d, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi nguy c\u01a1 \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz trong th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i \u0111ang gia t\u0103ng nhanh ch\u00f3ng. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u l\u00ean m\u1ee9c cao m\u1edbi trong m\u00f9a h\u00e8 n\u00e0y m\u00e0 c\u00f2n \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh l\u1ea1i logic \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u th\u00f4ng qua chu\u1ed7i l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t. Wmax d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba l\u00fd, khung theo d\u00f5i t\u1ea7n s\u1ed1 cao v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u00e2n t\u00edch li\u00ean k\u1ebft ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb-th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u00fap c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 th\u00e2m nh\u1eadp v\u00e0o m\u00e0n s\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u00f9 xung \u0111\u1ed9t v\u00e0 n\u1eafm b\u1eaft c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n

<\/a>B\u1ebf t\u1eafc eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz: Th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda k\u00e9o d\u00e0i, gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u1eadp \u0111\u1ec9nh m\u1edbi trong m\u00f9a h\u00e8 n\u00e0y<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1p l\u1ea1i nh\u1eefng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u1ea1c quan tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng r\u1eb1ng \u201cth\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn M\u1ef9-Iran s\u1eafp \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c di chuy\u1ec3n \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n s\u1ebd nhanh ch\u00f3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u1ed1i l\u1ea1i\u201d, Wmax \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 r\u1eb1ng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng n\u00e0y thi\u1ebfu s\u1ef1 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 th\u00f4ng qua x\u00e1c minh ch\u00e9o d\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u00e0 th\u00f4ng tin v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n t\u1ea7n s\u1ed1 cao t\u1eeb nhi\u1ec1u b\u00ean. D\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t Wmax cho th\u1ea5y l\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng giao th\u00f4ng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz ch\u1ec9 b\u1eb1ng kho\u1ea3ng 10% so v\u1edbi tr\u01b0\u1edbc chi\u1ebfn tranh, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u00e0u ch\u1edf d\u1ea7u th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f2n th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n v\u00e0 tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n c\u00f2n l\u00e2u m\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kh\u00f4i ph\u1ee5c; k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t t\u1eeb \u200b\u200bc\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c nh\u01b0 Piper Sandler,Eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz s\u1ebd v\u1eabn \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn trong nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng t\u1edbi<\/strong>, \u00e1p l\u1ef1c thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t ngu\u1ed3n cung s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c gia t\u0103ng v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c cao m\u1edbi trong m\u00f9a h\u00e8 n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Wmax ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 logic c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t k\u00e9o d\u00e0i: M\u1ed9t m\u1eb7t, Iran n\u1eafm gi\u1eef l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf th\u01b0\u01a1ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i bi\u1ec3n qua eo bi\u1ec3n v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn th\u1ecfa hi\u1ec7p; m\u1eb7t kh\u00e1c, M\u1ef9 th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng tr\u01b0\u1edbc vi\u1ec7c leo thang xung \u0111\u1ed9t v\u00e0 lo ng\u1ea1i c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3 c\u1ee7a Iran s\u1ebd \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc l\u00e1ng gi\u1ec1ng v\u00e0 l\u00e0m gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n h\u01a1n n\u1eefa chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. S\u1ef1 b\u1ebf t\u1eafc gi\u1eefa hai b\u00ean s\u1ebd tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp k\u00e9o d\u00e0i th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda eo bi\u1ec3n.<\/p>\n

Ngo\u00e0i nh\u1eefng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf v\u1ec1 ngu\u1ed3n cung, c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf thu ph\u00ed ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng c\u1ee7a Iran \u0111ang tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t ngu\u1ed3n b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n m\u1edbi tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Wmax \u0111\u00e3 theo d\u00f5i r\u1eb1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e3 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n k\u1ef3 \u200b\u200bv\u1ecdng r\u1eb1ng Iran s\u1ebd \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng ph\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c t\u00e0u qu\u00e1 c\u1ea3nh. Ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n ph\u00ed \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u01b0u h\u00e0nh trong ng\u00e0nh l\u00e0 kho\u1ea3ng 1 USD cho m\u1ed7i th\u00f9ng d\u1ea7u th\u00f4. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c Iran v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng nh\u01b0ng c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 t\u00e2m l\u00fd ch\u1edd \u0111\u1ee3i c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. S&P Global Energy v\u00e0 c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c kh\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng th\u00f4ng tin \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n tr\u00e1i chi\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \"s\u1ee3 thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp v\u1ecb th\u1ebf d\u1ea7u th\u00f4\", c\u00e0ng l\u00e0m khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u. Wmax \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh n\u1ebfu c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf thu ph\u00ed \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng thi\u1ebfu ngu\u1ed3n cung th\u00ec kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u v\u01b0\u1ee3t 120 USD\/th\u00f9ng s\u1ebd v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 70%; ngay c\u1ea3 khi \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn n\u1ed1i l\u1ea1i ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng, s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i m\u1ea5t \u00edt nh\u1ea5t 2 th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ec3 kh\u00f4i ph\u1ee5c ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n vi\u1ec7c v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n v\u00e0 cung c\u1ea5p n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng. Trong ho\u00e0n c\u1ea3nh l\u1ea1c quan, s\u1ebd m\u1ea5t t\u1edbi m\u1ed9t n\u0103m \u0111\u1ec3 kh\u00f4i ph\u1ee5c chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng v\u1ec1 m\u1ee9c tr\u01b0\u1edbc chi\u1ebfn tranh. T\u00ednh b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u00fa s\u1ed1c n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t xa k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Nh\u1eefng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb trong n\u01b0\u1edbc \u1edf M\u1ef9: \u0110\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn chi\u1ebfn tranh s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5, kh\u00f4ng gian \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c b\u1ecb thu h\u1eb9p<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nh\u1eefng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t k\u00e9o d\u00e0i gi\u1eefa Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u00e0 Iran \u0111ang chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb c\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ed9 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 sang c\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb trong n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3. D\u1ef1a tr\u00ean d\u1eef li\u1ec7u th\u0103m d\u00f2 m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t, Wmax k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 ki\u00ean nh\u1eabn c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n M\u1ef9 v\u1edbi cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n c\u1ea1n ki\u1ec7t, v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch chi\u1ebfn tranh c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Trump \u0111ang ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi \u00e1p l\u1ef1c trong n\u01b0\u1edbc ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3:<\/p>\n

\"\u0110\u00e1nh<\/p>\n