{"id":10078,"date":"2026-05-29T17:15:58","date_gmt":"2026-05-29T09:15:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/?p=10078"},"modified":"2026-05-29T17:19:13","modified_gmt":"2026-05-29T09:19:13","slug":"%e6%b2%83%e4%bb%80%e5%81%8f%e7%88%b1%e7%9a%84%e9%80%9a%e8%83%80%e6%8c%87%e6%a0%87%e4%b8%8d%e5%87%86%ef%bc%9fwmax-%e7%82%b9%e7%a0%b4%e7%bb%9f%e8%ae%a1%e5%81%8f%e5%b7%ae%e7%9c%9f%e7%9b%b8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/luu-tru\/10078","title":{"rendered":"Th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u01b0a th\u00edch c\u1ee7a Warsh l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c? Wmax ch\u1ec9 ra s\u1ef1 th\u1eadt v\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u0129 m\u00f4 Wmax k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p x\u00e1c th\u1ef1c ch\u00e9o nhi\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 v\u1ec1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, xu h\u01b0\u1edbng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang, nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n v\u00e0 tin r\u1eb1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111ang cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p g\u1ed3m \"c\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u h\u1eddi h\u1ee3t kh\u00e1c nhau v\u00e0 \u00e1p l\u1ef1c th\u1ef1c t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng\": m\u1ed9t m\u1eb7t, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t PCE \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t trong ba n\u0103m v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 4 v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng lan r\u1ed9ng ra to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng; m\u1eb7t kh\u00e1c, ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ki\u1ec3m duy\u1ec7t do t\u00e2n Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang Warsh \u01b0a chu\u1ed9ng g\u1eedi m\u1ed9t t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i, nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3, \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p m\u1ee9c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng. Wmax d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng theo d\u00f5i l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111a chi\u1ec1u, khung ph\u00e2n t\u00edch tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch v\u00e0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh x\u00e1c minh t\u00ednh h\u1ee3p l\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u00fap c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 xuy\u00ean qua s\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u00f9 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u00e0 n\u1eafm b\u1eaft xu h\u01b0\u1edbng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n

<\/a>B\u1ee9c tranh th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf v\u1ec1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t: PCE ch\u1ea1m m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t trong 3 n\u0103m, \u00e1p l\u1ef1c lan r\u1ed9ng ra m\u1ecdi khu v\u1ef1c<\/strong><\/p>\n

M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh theo d\u00f5i l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t Wmax cho th\u1ea5y ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 gi\u00e1 PCE c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean 3,8% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 trong th\u00e1ng 4, l\u1eadp k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c m\u1edbi trong 3 n\u0103m k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 6 n\u0103m 2023. PCE c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i t\u0103ng l\u00ean 3,3% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i. Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i l\u00e0 r\u1ea5t r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a Th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed1c C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang Cook r\u1eb1ng \"xu h\u01b0\u1edbng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng \u0111ang \u0111i sai h\u01b0\u1edbng\".<\/p>\n

V\u00f2ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y b\u1edfi m\u1ed9t y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 duy nh\u1ea5t m\u00e0 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m lan t\u1ecfa to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n. C\u00e1c tr\u00ecnh \u0111i\u1ec1u khi\u1ec3n c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a Wmax \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chia nh\u1ecf nh\u01b0 sau:<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Nh\u1eefng c\u00fa s\u1ed1c n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c truy\u1ec1n \u0111i<\/strong>: T\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c gi\u00e1 x\u0103ng v\u00e0 s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u0103ng g\u1ea7n 21% so v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc trong th\u00e1ng 3 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea3m nh\u1eadn r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng. Gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u cao do xung \u0111\u1ed9t M\u1ef9-Iran \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c truy\u1ec1n t\u1edbi to\u00e0n ng\u00e0nh th\u00f4ng qua chu\u1ed7i c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p, tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh c\u01a1 s\u1edf c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i cho s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i c\u1ee7a l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t.<\/li>\n
  2. L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t gia t\u0103ng \u1edf c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh th\u1ef1c ph\u1ea9m v\u00e0 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5<\/strong>: Chi ph\u00ed ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n v\u00e0 h\u1eadu c\u1ea7n th\u01b0\u1ee3ng ngu\u1ed3n t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 trong th\u00e1ng 4; \u00e1p l\u1ef1c nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u h\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng bu\u1ed9c c\u00e1c h\u00e3ng h\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 v\u00e9 chung. L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 h\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng trong hai th\u00e1ng li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t trong ng\u00e0nh d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 li\u00ean l\u1ea1c \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i tr\u00ean di\u1ec7n r\u1ed9ng.<\/li>\n
  3. AI premium tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 m\u1edbi<\/strong>: S\u1ef1 b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 nhu c\u1ea7u v\u1ec1 s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh t\u00ednh to\u00e1n \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng thi\u1ebfu chip nh\u1edb tr\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 b\u00e1n PC v\u00e0 c\u00e1c thi\u1ebft b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ea7u cu\u1ed1i ph\u1ea7n c\u1ee9ng li\u00ean quan l\u00ean cao, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi g\u00f3p ph\u1ea7n g\u00e2y ra t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n m\u00e0 h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c ch\u01b0a \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Wmax x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u201cd\u1eb7m cu\u1ed1i\u201d \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f2n c\u00f3 nguy c\u01a1 t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c. D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c nh\u01b0 Goldman Sachs \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u cao, xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 ph\u00ed b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m AI. Qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u00e3 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n b\u1ecb \u0111\u00ecnh tr\u1ec7 v\u00e0 PCE l\u00f5i s\u1ebd duy tr\u00ec \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao kho\u1ea3ng 3% trong m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2026.<\/p>\n

    <\/a>C\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o sai l\u1ec7ch ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o: \u201cT\u00edn hi\u1ec7u \u00f4n h\u00f2a sai l\u1ea7m\u201d \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ki\u1ec3m duy\u1ec7t<\/strong><\/p>\n

    Tr\u00e1i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i c\u1ee7a l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t PCE, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ki\u1ec3m duy\u1ec7t trong th\u00e1ng 4 c\u1ee7a Fed t\u1ea1i Dallas \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng 2,3% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i m\u00e0 t\u00e2n Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Fed Warsh nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh t\u1ea1i phi\u00ean \u0111i\u1ec1u tr\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ec3 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh \u201cl\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n\u201d. Tuy nhi\u00ean, Wmax x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn th\u00f4ng qua m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh x\u00e1c minh t\u00ednh h\u1ee3p l\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o r\u1eb1ng ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7n c\u00f3 sai l\u1ec7ch th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 v\u00e0 \u0111ang \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p m\u1ee9c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng.<\/p>\n

    \"\u0110\u00e1nh<\/p>\n

    Wmax ph\u00e1 b\u1ecf logic c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i b\u1ecb b\u00f3p m\u00e9o c\u1ee7a ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o n\u00e0y: Nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ki\u1ec3m duy\u1ec7t l\u00e0 lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf c\u00e1c m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng c\u00f3 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 m\u1ea1nh nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0 gi\u1eef l\u1ea1i ph\u1ea7n gi\u1eefa \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh xu h\u01b0\u1edbng. Tuy nhi\u00ean, trong m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i n\u01a1i c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch thu\u1ebf quan c\u1ee7a Trump \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng l\u00ean cao, \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 gi\u00e1 v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c. Ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o n\u00e0y lo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb 31% m\u1ee5c c\u00f3 m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng cao nh\u1ea5t theo c\u00e1c quy t\u1eafc \u0111\u00e3 thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y s\u1ebd l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch gi\u1ea3 t\u1ea1o. Trong th\u00e1ng 4, ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp lo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb c\u00e1c m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng nh\u01b0 x\u0103ng d\u1ea7u, v\u00e9 m\u00e1y bay t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 m\u1ea1nh l\u00e0 nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n nay, cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u sai l\u1ea7m v\u1ec1 \u201cl\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n\u201d.<\/p>\n

    Nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0y nh\u00ecn chung c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1edbi h\u1ecdc thu\u1eadt v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng x\u00e1c minh: C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a Fed t\u1ea1i Dallas \u0111\u00e3 nh\u1eafc nh\u1edf r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u l\u1ea1c quan c\u1ee7a ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o n\u00e0y l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p; Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Standard Chartered ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ec7ch th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea m\u00e0 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y c\u00f2n y\u1ebfu h\u01a1n PCE c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i trong vi\u1ec7c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai; Nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc Furman c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Harvard th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f2n th\u1eb3ng th\u1eafn tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 r\u1eb1ng ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y \"\u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean l\u00fd do c\u0169\" v\u00e0 thi\u1ebfu khu\u00f4n kh\u1ed5 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n. Nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn d\u1ea1ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 c\u0169ng xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n trong th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u0103ng nhanh sau d\u1ecbch b\u1ec7nh, khi ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o n\u00e0y c\u0169ng g\u1eedi \u0111i t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u nh\u1eb9 nh\u01b0ng ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n ch\u1ec7ch kh\u1ecfi xu h\u01b0\u1edbng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd c\u1ee7a l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n

    <\/a>Tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang: s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9 ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng gia t\u0103ng, di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u v\u1eabn l\u00e0 h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111i ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ea1o<\/strong><\/p>\n

    S\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t v\u1ec1 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp l\u00e0m tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng th\u00eam s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch trong C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang. Warsh d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ki\u1ec3m duy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ec3 nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0o nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh \"c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t\", ch\u1eeba ch\u1ed7 cho vi\u1ec7c n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch, nh\u01b0ng l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ea1o trong FOMC \u0111\u00e3 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n tr\u1edf n\u00ean di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u:<\/p>\n