{"id":10174,"date":"2026-06-09T15:00:37","date_gmt":"2026-06-09T07:00:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/?p=10174"},"modified":"2026-06-09T15:00:42","modified_gmt":"2026-06-09T07:00:42","slug":"%e9%9d%9e%e5%86%9c%e6%95%b0%e6%8d%ae%e5%bc%95%e7%88%86%e6%94%bf%e7%ad%96%e5%8f%98%e5%b1%80-%ef%bc%81%e6%b2%83%e4%bb%80%e9%a6%96%e8%bf%8e%e5%a4%a7%e8%80%83-%ef%bc%8c%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e9%b8%bd","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/luu-tru\/10174","title":{"rendered":"D\u1eef li\u1ec7u phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p g\u00e2y ra thay \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch! Warsh \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t th\u1eed th\u00e1ch l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean, l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u00f4n h\u00f2a c\u1ee7a Fed ch\u1ecbu \u00e1p l\u1ef1c ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u0129 m\u00f4 c\u1ee7a Wmax \u0111\u00e3 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p d\u1eef li\u1ec7u vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t, gi\u00e1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n thu\u1ed9c m\u1ecdi lo\u1ea1i, tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang, nh\u1eadn x\u00e9t c\u1ee7a Nh\u00e0 Tr\u1eafng v\u00e0 quan \u0111i\u1ec3m th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n. Vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m cao h\u01a1n mong \u0111\u1ee3i g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y v\u00e0 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c cao \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t do t\u00e2n Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang Warsh \u0111\u01b0a ra trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eed. Phe di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u trong C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n, logic \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e3 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0 c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n l\u1edbn nh\u01b0 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu M\u1ef9, v\u00e0ng v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u1eef d\u1ed9i. d\u1ef1a v\u00e0oH\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng theo d\u00f5i d\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u0129 m\u00f4<\/strong>\u4e0eM\u00f4 h\u00ecnh gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t li\u00ean k\u1ebft t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n ch\u00e9o<\/strong>, Wmax ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c s\u1eafp x\u1ebfp b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh c\u1ee7a tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, ph\u00e1 b\u1ecf logic bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 n\u1eafm b\u1eaft ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u00e1c b\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u1eb7t xu h\u01b0\u1edbng v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n.<\/p>\n

<\/a>D\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 mong \u0111\u1ee3i tr\u00ean di\u1ec7n r\u1ed9ng: Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng vi\u1ebft l\u1ea1i k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t<\/strong><\/p>\n

D\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u1ea3ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t trong th\u00e1ng 5 do C\u1ee5c Th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea Lao \u0111\u1ed9ng Hoa K\u1ef3 c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh t\u00e1c nh\u00e2n c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00e0y. D\u1eef li\u1ec7u cho th\u1ea5y Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ed5 sung th\u00eam 172.000 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p trong th\u00e1ng 5, trong khi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m trong th\u00e1ng 3 v\u00e0 th\u00e1ng 4 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh t\u0103ng 93.000. T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m trong ba th\u00e1ng qua \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c cao m\u1edbi trong h\u01a1n hai n\u0103m v\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p v\u1eabn \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh \u1edf m\u1ee9c 4,3%. T\u1eeb g\u00f3c \u0111\u1ed9 c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m, v\u00f2ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m n\u00e0y ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu t\u1eadp trung \u1edf hai l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 kh\u00e1ch s\u1ea1n gi\u1ea3i tr\u00ed v\u00e0 y t\u1ebf v\u00e0 s\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe. S\u1ef1 b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ea1m \u0111\u00e1y v\u00e0 s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m c\u00f2n tr\u1ed1ng t\u0103ng l\u00ean, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng Hoa K\u1ef3. So s\u00e1nh d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1edfi ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t nh\u1eadp c\u01b0 v\u00e0 thu\u1ebf quan c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Trump, Hoa K\u1ef3 s\u1ebd t\u1ea1o ra \u00edt h\u01a1n 10.000 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m m\u1edbi m\u1ed7i th\u00e1ng v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2025, trong khi s\u1ed1 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m m\u1edbi trung b\u00ecnh h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng trong 5 th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2026 s\u1ebd t\u0103ng tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i l\u00ean 114.000. Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh ngu\u1ed3n cung lao \u0111\u1ed9ng b\u1ecb thu h\u1eb9p, b\u00e1o c\u00e1o vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m n\u00e0y ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c logic ban \u0111\u1ea7u r\u1eb1ng \u201cvi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m y\u1ebfu h\u01a1n s\u1ebd bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t\u201d.<\/p>\n

K\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao li\u00ean t\u1ee5c tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3, d\u01b0\u1edbi \u00e1p l\u1ef1c k\u00e9p, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u nhanh ch\u00f3ng ho\u00e0n t\u1ea5t vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i. D\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t ph\u00e1i sinh l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t Wmax cho th\u1ea5y th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2026: c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch \u0111ang \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 25 \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n t\u1ea1i cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u00e1ng 12 v\u00e0 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 10 \u0111\u00e3 l\u00ean t\u1edbi 60%. B\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1edfi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Kho b\u1ea1c Hoa K\u1ef3 b\u1ecb b\u00e1n t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ec1u t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi: l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t Kho b\u1ea1c Hoa K\u1ef3 k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 2 n\u0103m t\u0103ng 11 \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n l\u00ean 4,15%, thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp m\u1ee9c cao m\u1edbi trong n\u0103m; L\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu kho b\u1ea1c Hoa K\u1ef3 k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 10 n\u0103m \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng 6 \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n l\u00ean 4,53% v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu kho b\u1ea1c Hoa K\u1ef3 k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 30 n\u0103m m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n n\u1eefa \u0111\u1ee9ng \u1edf m\u1ed1c 5% v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng.<\/p>\n

\"\u0110\u00e1nh<\/p>\n

Hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng li\u00ean k\u1ebft t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n nhanh ch\u00f3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c truy\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ebfn to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng: ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f4 la M\u1ef9 theo xu h\u01b0\u1edbng v\u00e0 m\u1ea1nh l\u00ean, trong khi v\u00e0ng giao ngay qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf ch\u1ecbu s\u1ef1 th\u1ee5t l\u00f9i n\u1eb7ng n\u1ec1, gi\u1ea3m g\u1ea7n 100 USD, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng 2,5%, trong ng\u00e0y. Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ed9t ng\u1ed9t k\u1ebft th\u00fac. BlackRock, Natixis, Brandi Global v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u kh\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ed3ng \u00fd v\u1ec1 t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i: s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi nguy c\u01a1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t do n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u00e3 chuy\u1ec3n tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang sang ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ee5t l\u1ea1i ph\u00eda sau \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t theo t\u1eebng giai \u0111o\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e0o t\u1ea9u t\u1eadp th\u1ec3 trong Fed: Gi\u1ecdng \u0111i\u1ec7u \u00f4n h\u00f2a gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n, s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng gia t\u0103ng<\/strong><\/p>\n

K\u1ec3 t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m, \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a Fed \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ea3i qua m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i mang t\u00ednh l\u1eadt \u0111\u1ed5. V\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u00ecn chung lo l\u1eafng v\u1ec1 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m y\u1ebfu k\u00e9m v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t l\u00e0 logic giao d\u1ecbch ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ea1o. Gi\u1edd \u0111\u00e2y, d\u01b0\u1edbi t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng d\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp, c\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c c\u1ea5p cao c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f9ng tr\u1edf n\u00ean di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u, v\u00e0 quan \u0111i\u1ec3m ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9 \u0111\u00e3 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u00e1c nhau. \u0110\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n ti\u00eau bi\u1ec3u l\u00e0 Th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed1c Fed Waller. T\u1eeb n\u0103m 2025 \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2026, \u00f4ng lu\u00f4n \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t do lo ng\u1ea1i vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m. B\u00e2y gi\u1edd \u00f4ng r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng \u0111\u00e3 r\u00fat l\u1ea1i xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u00f4n h\u00f2a c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh v\u00e0 tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 th\u1eb3ng th\u1eebng r\u1eb1ng n\u1ebfu l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m nhanh ch\u00f3ng, \u00f4ng s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng lo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t n\u1eefa. S\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i th\u00e1i \u0111\u1ed9 n\u00e0y nhanh ch\u00f3ng lan r\u1ed9ng trong nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a Fed.<\/p>\n

Ngay t\u1eeb cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 4, ba th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecf phi\u1ebfu ch\u1ed1ng, ch\u1ee7 tr\u01b0\u01a1ng di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u v\u00e0 m\u1edf c\u1eeda t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t; Ng\u00e0y nay, ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u quan ch\u1ee9c c\u00f4ng khai tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 r\u1eb1ng trong m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch 2% trong th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i th\u00ec \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi t\u00e2n Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Fed Warsh, t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n h\u01a1n. Trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eed, Warsh \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch l\u1ea1c quan r\u1eb1ng Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch m\u1edbi c\u1ee7a Trump v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 lan r\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 AI s\u1ebd th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang s\u1ebd c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u d\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecba \u0111\u1ec3 c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. Tuy nhi\u00ean, s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf sai l\u1ec7ch nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng so v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng: l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u1edf M\u1ef9 cao h\u01a1n m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch trong nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp v\u00e0 IMF \u0111\u00e3 ho\u00e3n th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u1edf M\u1ef9 gi\u1ea3m v\u1ec1 m\u1ee9c 2% t\u1eeb gi\u1eefa n\u0103m 2026 \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2027.<\/p>\n

\"\u0110\u00e1nh<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c th\u01b0\u1eddng lo ng\u1ea1i r\u1eb1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c s\u1ebd l\u00e0m t\u1ed5n h\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ebfn uy t\u00edn c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a Fed. Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 16-17\/6, sau khi Wash nh\u1eadm ch\u1ee9cCu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean<\/strong>Tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh t\u00e2m \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Wmax \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 r\u1eb1ng tr\u1eeb khi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u CPI \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 10 th\u00e1ng 6 gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3, cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp n\u00e0y s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t t\u00ecnh th\u1ebf ti\u1ebfn tho\u00e1i l\u01b0\u1ee1ng nan nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch. \u0110i\u1ec1u h\u1ed3i h\u1ed9p l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 li\u1ec7u Wash c\u00f3 t\u1eeb b\u1ecf l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u00f4n h\u00f2a c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eed v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ebfn phe di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u hay kh\u00f4ng. Nh\u00ecn v\u00e0o Ph\u1ed1 Wall, c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ch\u00ednh th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f9ng nhau \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh: t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ec1u h\u1ee7y b\u1ecf k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2026 v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c gi\u1eef nguy\u00ean kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2027. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e3 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb \"ch\u1edd gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t\" sang \"\u0111\u00e1nh b\u1ea1c \u0111\u1ec3 t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t\".<\/p>\n

<\/a>Nh\u00e0 Tr\u1eafng c\u00f3 th\u00e1i \u0111\u1ed9 m\u00e2u thu\u1eabn: s\u1ef1 can thi\u1ec7p t\u1eeb chu k\u1ef3 b\u1ea7u c\u1eed s\u1ebd t\u1ea1o th\u00eam m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c cho tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch<\/strong><\/p>\n

T\u1eeb g\u00f3c \u0111\u1ed9 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n, h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u1eed tri \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 ch\u1eadm v\u1ec1 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 kinh t\u1ebf hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, nh\u01b0ng d\u1eef li\u1ec7u phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p b\u1eaft m\u1eaft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c Nh\u00e0 Tr\u1eafng coi l\u00e0 b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd v\u1ec1 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n. Trump c\u00f4ng khai b\u00e1c b\u1ecf nh\u1eefng lo ng\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh r\u1eb1ng \"t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf kh\u00f4ng b\u1eb1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t\" v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn logic r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 l\u00ean cao. Hassett, gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c H\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed3ng Kinh t\u1ebf Qu\u1ed1c gia Nh\u00e0 Tr\u1eafng, c\u0169ng \u0111\u1ed3ng lo\u1ea1t l\u00ean ti\u1ebfng, k\u00eau g\u1ecdi C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang duy tr\u00ec th\u00e1i \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u1edd xem. \u00d4ng th\u1eb3ng th\u1eafn cho r\u1eb1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n nay v\u1eabn c\u00f2n nhi\u1ec1u d\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecba \u0111\u1ec3 c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u1ed9i v\u00e0ng.<\/p>\n

S\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u1ea3n r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t gi\u1eefa quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a Nh\u00e0 Tr\u1eafng v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a Fed c\u0169ng khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a Fed tr\u1edf n\u00ean ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p h\u01a1n. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra nh\u1eefng c\u00e1ch gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch kh\u00e1c nhau: Bank of America tin r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n \u0111\u00e3 k\u00ecm h\u00e3m xu h\u01b0\u1edbng di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u c\u1ee7a Fed; Lazard cho r\u1eb1ng n\u1ebfu ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 CPI c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 v\u00e0o tu\u1ea7n t\u1edbi t\u0103ng tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i, n\u00f3 s\u1ebd ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n logic n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng; Northern Light Asset Management l\u1ea1i c\u00f3 quan \u0111i\u1ec3m kh\u00e1c, cho r\u1eb1ng trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c b\u1ecb phong t\u1ecfa v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng r\u1ee7i ro n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ch\u01b0a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft, Fed c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1m d\u1eebng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n; Glenmede c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 r\u1eb1ng cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 6 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd gi\u1eef nguy\u00ean l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng ti\u1ebfp theo s\u1ebd ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c nhi\u1ec1u v\u00e0o gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t.<\/p>\n

\"\u0110\u00e1nh<\/p>\n

Wmax \u0111\u00e3 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n qua nhi\u1ec1u quan \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch r\u1eb1ng b\u1ed1n y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a nhu c\u1ea7u b\u1ea7u c\u1eed, \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00f3 m\u1ed1i li\u00ean h\u1ec7 v\u1edbi nhau, khi\u1ebfn C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang kh\u00f3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng tri\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u01a1n ph\u01b0\u01a1ng. Trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, \u201cgi\u1eef v\u1eefng l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u\u201d c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t, nh\u01b0ng c\u00e1nh c\u1eeda t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trung v\u00e0 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a \u0111\u00f3ng l\u1ea1i. C\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang c\u0169ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1eb7t l\u00ean tr\u00ean \u00e1p l\u1ef1c ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c b\u1ea7u c\u1eed gi\u1eefa k\u1ef3 \u1edf Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t v\u1ec1 quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea3ng kh\u00e1c nhau \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m t\u0103ng th\u00eam s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng Wmax v\u00e0 manh m\u1ed1i theo d\u00f5i c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i<\/strong><\/p>\n

K\u1ebft h\u1ee3p b\u1ed1n kh\u00eda c\u1ea1nh ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u, ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch, ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecba l\u00fd, Wmax \u0111\u01b0a ra \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n v\u1ec1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ebfp theo v\u00e0 l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a Fed:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1eabn ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch<\/strong>: Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng cao cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u00e1ng 6 s\u1ebd duy tr\u00ec m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong kho\u1ea3ng 3,50%-3,75%, nh\u01b0ng ng\u00f4n t\u1eeb c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp s\u1ebd r\u1ea5t di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u, g\u1eedi t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng v\u1edbi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 gi\u1eef nguy\u00ean ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t; Vi\u1ec7c c\u00f3 t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong n\u0103m hay kh\u00f4ng s\u1ebd ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o hai bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i l\u00e0 CPI v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng.<\/li>\n
  2. C\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n ch\u00ednh<\/strong>: L\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu M\u1ef9 d\u1ec5 t\u0103ng nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f3 gi\u1ea3m, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ch\u1ecbu \u00e1p l\u1ef1c; ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f4 la M\u1ef9 v\u1eabn m\u1ea1nh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t; T\u00e0i s\u1ea3n r\u1ee7i ro ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n v\u00e0ng v\u00e0 M\u1ef9 v\u1eabn s\u1ebd ch\u1ecbu \u00e1p l\u1ef1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh v\u00e0 s\u1ebd kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh y\u1ebfu k\u00e9m trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n.<\/li>\n
  3. r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i<\/strong>: Xung \u0111\u1ed9t gi\u1eefa M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Iran ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng cao, c\u00e0ng l\u00e0m tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng th\u00eam t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t dai d\u1eb3ng; cu\u1ed9c b\u1ea7u c\u1eed \u0111ang \u0111\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m n\u1ea3y sinh nh\u1eefng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 can thi\u1ec7p ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch, l\u00e0m x\u00e1o tr\u1ed9n t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang; nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n trong d\u1eef li\u1ec7u vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i s\u1ebd t\u1eadp trung theo d\u00f5i ba n\u00fat ch\u00ednh: th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t, d\u1eef li\u1ec7u CPI th\u00e1ng 5 c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 10 th\u00e1ng 6, x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n; th\u1ee9 hai, cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang v\u00e0 tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean c\u1ee7a Warsh v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 16-17 th\u00e1ng 6; th\u1ee9 ba, t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz v\u00e0 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Trong th\u00e1ng 5, 172.000 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p m\u1edbi \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u1ed5 sung, v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 mong \u0111\u1ee3i. T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m trong ba th\u00e1ng qua \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c cao m\u1edbi trong h\u01a1n hai n\u0103m v\u00e0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p v\u1eabn \u1edf m\u1ee9c 4,3%. Phe di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u trong C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong n\u0103m, v\u1edbi kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 12 s\u1ebd t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt. Warsh l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t th\u1eed th\u00e1ch l\u1edbn. Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng cao cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp th\u00e1ng 6 s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i nh\u01b0ng l\u1eddi n\u00f3i c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng s\u1ebd di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u, gi\u1eef nguy\u00ean ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. V\u00e0ng gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh g\u1ea7n 100 USD v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu M\u1ef9 t\u0103ng tr\u00ean di\u1ec7n r\u1ed9ng.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10175,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[121],"tags":[503,1203,1204,287,340,812],"class_list":["post-10174","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-financial-news","tag-503","tag-1203","tag-1204","tag-287","tag-340","tag-812"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10174","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10174"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10174\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10179,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10174\/revisions\/10179"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10175"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10174"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10174"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10174"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}