{"id":10542,"date":"2026-07-14T15:26:22","date_gmt":"2026-07-14T07:26:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/?p=10542"},"modified":"2026-07-14T15:26:26","modified_gmt":"2026-07-14T07:26:26","slug":"%e9%9c%8d%e5%b0%94%e6%9c%a8%e5%85%b9%e6%b5%b7%e5%b3%a1%e6%94%b6%e8%b4%b9%e8%ae%a1%e5%88%92%e6%8a%9b%e5%87%ba%e5%9c%b0%e7%bc%98%e5%8d%9a%e5%bc%88%e9%87%8d%e5%a1%91%e6%b2%b9%e4%bb%b7%e8%bf%90%e8%a1%8c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/luu-tru\/10542","title":{"rendered":"K\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch thu ph\u00ed \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz b\u1ecb h\u1ee7y b\u1ecf v\u00e0 c\u00e1c tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh l\u1ea1i logic v\u1eadn h\u00e0nh gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u!"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"15\"<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a Wmax k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t, d\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n t\u1ea7n su\u1ea5t cao, xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u v\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf, d\u1ef1a tr\u00eanKhung gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t r\u1ee7i ro n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u1ea5t<\/strong>\u3001M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u00ednh chi ph\u00ed v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n<\/strong>\u4e0eH\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng cung c\u1ea7u d\u1ea7u th\u00f4<\/strong>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch v\u00e0 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n: Ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Trump c\u00f3 k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng \"ph\u00ed b\u1ed3i th\u01b0\u1eddng\" 20% \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a \u0111i qua eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y s\u1ebd l\u00e0m leo thang xung \u0111\u1ed9t khu v\u1ef1c m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n n\u1eefa v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n nh\u1eefng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u1ea1c quan tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 ngu\u1ed3n cung d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 l\u1ecfng l\u1ebbo. Gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf t\u0103ng g\u1ea7n 9% ch\u1ec9 trong m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y, chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \"giao d\u1ecbch NACHO\" tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i xu h\u01b0\u1edbng ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ea1o c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u01b0\u1edbc chi\u1ebfn tranh \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. Trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 b\u1edfi ph\u00ed b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba l\u00fd v\u00e0 v\u1ec1 l\u00e2u d\u00e0i, vi\u1ec7c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng tr\u00e1nh \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ea9y nhanh, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y s\u1ebd d\u1ea7n d\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh l\u1ea1i m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh cung c\u1ea5p d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n

<\/a>G\u00f3i ph\u00ed v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n 20% b\u1ecb lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf, tranh ch\u1ea5p k\u00e9p v\u1ec1 chi ph\u00ed v\u00e0 t\u00ednh ph\u00e1p l\u00fd<\/strong><\/p>\n

K\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch thu ph\u00ed eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Trump \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ee3t \u0111\u1ea3o chi\u1ec1u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00e0y. Theo tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 c\u00f4ng khai c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, Hoa K\u1ef3 s\u1ebd \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng \"ph\u00ed b\u1ed3i th\u01b0\u1eddng\" 20% \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a qu\u00e1 c\u1ea3nh v\u1edbi t\u01b0 c\u00e1ch l\u00e0 \"ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7\" eo bi\u1ec3n v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia nh\u01b0 \u1ea2 R\u1eadp Saudi, Qatar, C\u00e1c Ti\u1ec3u v\u01b0\u01a1ng qu\u1ed1c \u1ea2 R\u1eadp Th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t, Kuwait, Bahrain v\u00e0 Israel ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ecbu c\u00e1c chi ph\u00ed li\u00ean quan v\u1edbi l\u00fd do c\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng \"ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng minh\".<\/p>\n

\"\u0110\u00e1nh<\/p>\n

T\u00ednh to\u00e1n m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh chi ph\u00ed v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n Wmax cho th\u1ea5y d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i kho\u1ea3ng 80 USD\/th\u00f9ng, chi ph\u00ed m\u1ed9t l\u01b0\u1ee3t cho m\u1ed9t si\u00eau t\u00e0u ch\u1edf d\u1ea7u ch\u1edf 2 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 s\u1ebd cao t\u1edbi 32 tri\u1ec7u USD, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng chi ph\u00ed v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n kho\u1ea3ng 16 USD m\u1ed7i th\u00f9ng d\u1ea7u th\u00f4. Con s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y cao g\u1ea5p h\u01a1n 10 l\u1ea7n m\u1ee9c tr\u1ea7n ph\u00ed t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y \u1edf Iran v\u00e0 v\u01b0\u1ee3t xa m\u1ee9c c\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng bi\u1ec3n th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0nh - th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u01b0\u1edbc ph\u00ed do ng\u01b0\u1eddi g\u1eedi h\u00e0ng thanh to\u00e1n ch\u1ec9 chi\u1ebfm 2% -3% v\u00e0 20% gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a. Ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n t\u00ednh ph\u00ed t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng chi ph\u00ed v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n l\u00ean g\u1ea7n m\u01b0\u1eddi l\u1ea7n. K\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 g\u00e2y ra nh\u1eefng ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd trong ng\u00e0nh v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i bi\u1ec3n. Nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi trong ng\u00e0nh cho bi\u1ebft h\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng h\u1ec1 bi\u1ebft tr\u01b0\u1edbc, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed thuy\u1ec1n tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u00f2n m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 \"c\u01b0\u1edbp tr\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cao t\u1ed1c\".<\/p>\n

V\u1eabn c\u00f2n nhi\u1ec1u v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 ch\u01b0a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft trong k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch n\u00e0y. C\u00e1c quy \u0111\u1ecbnh thanh to\u00e1n v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00e0m r\u00f5 v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn li\u1ec7u c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n ph\u00ed s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a, chi ph\u00ed \u00e1p t\u1ea3i hay chi ph\u00ed phong t\u1ecfa; ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u1ecbu chi ph\u00ed c\u0169ng ch\u01b0a r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng v\u00e0 v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a r\u00f5 ch\u1ee7 t\u00e0u, ch\u1ee7 h\u00e0ng v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ty b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m s\u1ebd ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 chi ph\u00ed nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o. N\u1ebfu t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1ee7i ro \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n qu\u00e1 cao th\u00ec c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1eeb ch\u1ed1i b\u1ea3o l\u00e3nh ngay c\u1ea3 khi c\u00f3 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 h\u1ed9 t\u1ed1ng. \u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, t\u00ednh ph\u00e1p l\u00fd c\u1ee7a k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch c\u0169ng g\u00e2y tranh c\u00e3i: Eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz l\u00e0 tuy\u1ebfn \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ee7y qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf v\u00e0 t\u00e0u thuy\u1ec1n c\u00f3 quy\u1ec1n t\u1ef1 do \u0111i l\u1ea1i theo lu\u1eadt ph\u00e1p qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf. Vi\u1ec7c thu ph\u00ed b\u1eaft bu\u1ed9c thi\u1ebfu s\u1ef1 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t ph\u00e1p l\u00fd; n\u00f3 ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec3u l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 v\u00e0 h\u1ed9 t\u1ed1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u1ea3 l\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nguy\u1ec7n, v\u00e0 v\u1eabn c\u00f2n nh\u1eefng nghi ng\u1edd l\u1edbn v\u1ec1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 s\u1ef1 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. K\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch n\u00e0y hi\u1ec7n nay gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t con b\u00e0i th\u01b0\u01a1ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng trong tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb h\u01a1n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch th\u1ef1c thi ch\u00edn mu\u1ed3i. Vi\u1ec7c duy tr\u00ec quy\u1ec1n ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t l\u00e2u d\u00e0i eo bi\u1ec3n n\u00e0y \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi ph\u1ea3i tri\u1ec3n khai qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 quy m\u00f4 l\u1edbn v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Trump lu\u00f4n kh\u00f4ng s\u1eb5n l\u00f2ng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 qu\u00e2n tr\u00ean b\u1ed9. N\u1ebfu ch\u1ec9 h\u1ed9 t\u1ed1ng tuy\u1ebfn ph\u00eda Nam th\u00ec kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd thu ph\u00ed to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng cao.<\/p>\n

<\/a>K\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u0111\u00e3 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n thay \u0111\u1ed5i, gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i d\u1eef d\u1ed9i v\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch NACHO \u0111\u00e3 quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i<\/strong><\/p>\n

Xung \u0111\u1ed9t v\u1ec1 k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch thu ph\u00ed l\u1ea1i leo thang, ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n nh\u1eefng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u1ea1c quan tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i nhanh ch\u00f3ng c\u1ee7a eo bi\u1ec3n. D\u1ea7u th\u00f4 Brent t\u0103ng h\u01a1n 9% trong m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y v\u00e0o th\u1ee9 Hai, m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng trong m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 5 n\u0103m 2020; D\u1ea7u th\u00f4 WTI t\u0103ng g\u1ea7n 9%, g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 x\u00f3a \u0111i to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 \u0111\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m trong th\u00e1ng qua. V\u00e0o th\u1ee9 Ba, gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 hai ch\u00e2u \u00c1 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng, v\u1edbi WTI t\u1eebng \u0111\u1ee9ng tr\u00ean 80 USD v\u00e0 Brent ch\u1ea1m m\u1ee9c 85 USD. T\u00e2m l\u00fd th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng nhanh ch\u00f3ng chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb \u201cngu\u1ed3n cung d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng\u201d sang \u201cnguy c\u01a1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n\u201d. Gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba l\u00fd Wmax cho th\u1ea5y th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e3 s\u1edbm \u0111\u00e1nh \u0111\u1ed3ng vi\u1ec7c m\u1edf m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n eo bi\u1ec3n v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c k\u1ebft th\u00fac cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng, \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p t\u00ednh ch\u1ea5t t\u00e1i di\u1ec5n c\u1ee7a t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh khu v\u1ef1c. Khi hai t\u00e0u ch\u1edf d\u1ea7u \u1edf C\u00e1c Ti\u1ec3u v\u01b0\u01a1ng qu\u1ed1c \u1ea2 R\u1eadp Th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t b\u1ecb t\u00ean l\u1eeda h\u00e0nh tr\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a Iran t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng v\u00e0 Hoa K\u1ef3 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c phong t\u1ecfa c\u00e1c t\u00e0u Iran, c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c th\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1eeda \u0111\u1ed5i ph\u00e1n \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd. C\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c t\u01b0 v\u1ea5n nh\u01b0 Trung t\u00e2m An ninh M\u1ef9 M\u1edbi \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ec9 ra r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng r\u1eb1ng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u01b0\u1edbc chi\u1ebfn tranh l\u00e0 \"g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 b\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng\".<\/p>\n

\"\u0110\u00e1nh<\/p>\n

V\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng n\u00e0y, chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u201cgiao d\u1ecbch NACHO\u201d c\u1ed5 \u0111i\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a Ph\u1ed1 Wall \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i. T\u00ean \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 c\u1ee7a chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u00e0y l\u00e0 \u201cKh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1edf ra\u201d. Logic c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i l\u00e0 \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01b0\u1ee3c r\u1eb1ng eo bi\u1ec3n n\u00e0y s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda trong th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i, ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u00edt t\u00e0u l\u1eb7ng l\u1ebd \u0111i qua, cho \u0111\u1ebfn khi gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u cao v\u00e0 \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 ch\u1ecbu n\u1ed5i. Wmax nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a logic giao d\u1ecbch n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n: t\u1ed3n kho d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c c\u1ea1n ki\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p l\u1ecbch s\u1eed v\u00e0 D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef D\u1ea7u kh\u00ed Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1983. Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ec7m c\u1ee7a h\u00e0ng t\u1ed3n kho \u0111\u00e3 suy y\u1ebfu \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3, c\u00e0ng l\u00e0m t\u0103ng th\u00eam \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n theo gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n ngu\u1ed3n cung.<\/p>\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd l\u00e0 m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng l\u00ean nh\u01b0ng c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a tham gia th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1edbi s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1edbn. Sau g\u1ea7n 5 th\u00e1ng xung \u0111\u1ed9t l\u1eb7p \u0111i l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i, v\u1ecb th\u1ebf t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ef9 ph\u00f2ng h\u1ed9 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c kh\u00e1c \u0111\u00e3 suy gi\u1ea3m v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi tham gia th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u00ecn chung v\u1eabn \u0111\u1ee9ng ngo\u00e0i cu\u1ed9c, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn thanh kho\u1ea3n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng suy y\u1ebfu v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u c\u00e0ng khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i. Wmax tin r\u1eb1ng m\u00e2u thu\u1eabn c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e3 chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb \"cung v\u01b0\u1ee3t c\u1ea7u\" sang \"gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn\": t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch t\u00ednh ph\u00ed kh\u00f4ng n\u1eb1m \u1edf chi ph\u00ed tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp m\u00e0 \u1edf ch\u1ed7 n\u00f3 ph\u00e1t ra t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u cho th\u1ea5y nguy c\u01a1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n \u0111ang gia t\u0103ng, ph\u00e1 b\u1ecf ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n nh\u1eefng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y v\u1ec1 ngu\u1ed3n cung l\u1ecfng l\u1ebbo. Citigroup v\u00e0 c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c kh\u00e1c c\u0169ng c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o n\u1ebfu k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch thu ph\u00ed \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n, nguy c\u01a1 leo thang qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 s\u1ebd t\u0103ng l\u00ean \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3, kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng Iran t\u1eeb b\u1ecf bi\u00ean b\u1ea3n ghi nh\u1edb ng\u1eebng b\u1eafn s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ed3ng lo\u1ea1t t\u0103ng l\u00ean v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao trong th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n

<\/a>\u0110\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh l\u1ea1i m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n: \u0111\u1ea9y nhanh vi\u1ec7c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng quanh h\u1ebbm n\u00fai<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nh\u1eefng r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n \u0111ang bu\u1ed9c c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t d\u1ea7u \u1edf v\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ea9y nhanh vi\u1ec7c \u0111a d\u1ea1ng h\u00f3a c\u00e1c tuy\u1ebfn \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n. Theo d\u00f5i Wmax cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t d\u1ea7u l\u1edbn nh\u01b0 \u1ea2 R\u1eadp Saudi, Iraq v\u00e0 C\u00e1c Ti\u1ec3u v\u01b0\u01a1ng qu\u1ed1c \u1ea2 R\u1eadp Th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng coi eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t n\u00fat d\u1ec5 b\u1ecb t\u1ed5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n. H\u1ecd \u0111ang chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ecbch xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 ra ngo\u00e0i eo bi\u1ec3n v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t tuy\u1ebfn \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ee7y duy nh\u1ea5t th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng d\u1eabn d\u1ea7u m\u1edbi, m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng c\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng hi\u1ec7n c\u00f3 v\u00e0 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u00e1c c\u1ea3ng ngo\u00e0i kh\u01a1i. T\u00ednh to\u00e1n c\u1ee7a Goldman Sachs cho th\u1ea5y n\u1ebfu t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch hi\u1ec7n c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n, h\u01a1n 45% l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ea7u xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u \u1edf v\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111i qua eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2027; n\u1ebfu ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean 75% v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2028.<\/p>\n

\"\u0110\u00e1nh<\/p>\n

Trong s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f3, C\u00e1c Ti\u1ec3u v\u01b0\u01a1ng qu\u1ed1c \u1ea2 R\u1eadp Th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng nhanh nh\u1ea5t. H\u1ecd \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00e1nh xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u th\u00f4ng qua \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng t\u1eeb Abu Dhabi t\u1edbi Fujairah. Sau khi r\u00fat kh\u1ecfi OPEC, n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y c\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea9y nhanh vi\u1ec7c m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng c\u1ea3ng v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng. Wmax c\u0169ng ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng trong vi\u1ec7c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng thay th\u1ebf: m\u1ed9t m\u1eb7t, d\u1ef1 \u00e1n \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi kho\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3 h\u00e0ng t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la, th\u1eddi gian x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng k\u00e9o d\u00e0i v\u00e0i n\u0103m v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 l\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ea7y kho\u1ea3ng tr\u1ed1ng cung c\u1ea5p khi eo bi\u1ec3n ng\u1eebng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng trong th\u1eddi gian ng\u1eafn; m\u1eb7t kh\u00e1c, c\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ec3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua eo bi\u1ec3n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n c\u00e1c r\u1ee7i ro an ninh. V\u00ec v\u1eady, \u0111a d\u1ea1ng h\u00f3a c\u00e1c tuy\u1ebfn v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i l\u00e0 h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh l\u1ea1i m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh l\u00e2u d\u00e0i. Tuy nhi\u00ean, trong 3-5 n\u0103m t\u1edbi, eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz v\u1eabn s\u1ebd l\u00e0 trung t\u00e2m cung c\u1ea5p d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 ph\u1ea7n b\u00f9 r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 s\u1ebd kh\u00f3 lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng Wmax v\u00e0 manh m\u1ed1i theo d\u00f5i c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i<\/strong><\/p>\n

K\u1ebft h\u1ee3p tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u1ec1 cung c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 t\u00e2m l\u00fd th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, Wmax \u0111\u01b0a ra nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n v\u1ec1 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng ti\u1ebfp theo c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7u th\u00f4:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u00e1<\/strong>: Ph\u00ed b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba l\u00fd ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n chi\u1ebfm \u01b0u th\u1ebf, gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u d\u1ec5 t\u0103ng nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f3 gi\u1ea3m v\u00e0 ph\u1ea1m vi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. Ph\u1ea1m vi 80-85 \u0111\u00f4 la M\u1ef9 s\u1ebd tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea1m vi c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i b\u00e1n kh\u1ed1ng; xu h\u01b0\u1edbng trung h\u1ea1n ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o th\u1eddi gian xung \u0111\u1ed9t v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch t\u00ednh ph\u00ed. N\u1ebfu t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh leo thang h\u01a1n n\u1eefa, gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u v\u1eabn c\u00f2n d\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecba \u0111\u1ec3 t\u0103ng; v\u1ec1 l\u00e2u d\u00e0i, v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 ti\u1ebfn b\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c \u0111a d\u1ea1ng h\u00f3a c\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cung c\u1ea5p, ph\u1ea7n b\u00f9 r\u1ee7i ro trung t\u00e2m c\u1ee7a eo bi\u1ec3n s\u1ebd d\u1ea7n gi\u1ea3m tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i.<\/li>\n
  2. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i<\/strong>: G\u00f3i t\u00ednh ph\u00ed 20% v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t con b\u00e0i th\u01b0\u01a1ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1edbi trong tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i M\u1ef9-Iran. Vi\u1ec7c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n nh\u01b0ng n\u00f3 s\u1ebd l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 t\u00ednh \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a b\u1ea3n ghi nh\u1edb ng\u1eebng b\u1eafn. S\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn trong c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n M\u1ef9-Iran s\u1ebd gia t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 v\u00e0 t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh khu v\u1ef1c s\u1ebd b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng mong manh d\u00e0i h\u01a1n.<\/li>\n
  3. T\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0nh<\/strong>: Chi ph\u00ed v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n t\u0103ng d\u1ea7n s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng l\u00ean cao, mang l\u1ea1i l\u1ee3i \u00edch cho c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t d\u1ea7u tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ea5t li\u1ec1n ngo\u00e0i v\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh; x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng, m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng c\u1ea3ng, d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 an ninh v\u00e0 c\u00e1c chu\u1ed7i c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p li\u00ean quan kh\u00e1c s\u1ebd ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bnhu c\u1ea7u t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i s\u1ebd t\u1eadp trung theo d\u00f5i b\u1ed1n manh m\u1ed1i c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i: th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t, chi ti\u1ebft th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch thu ph\u00ed; th\u1ee9 hai, di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a xung \u0111\u1ed9t M\u1ef9-Iran v\u00e0 t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh h\u00e0ng h\u1ea3i th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz; th\u1ee9 ba, ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng d\u1ef1 \u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng tr\u00e1nh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh; th\u1ee9 t\u01b0, nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong t\u1ed3n kho d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1.<\/p>\n\n\n

    <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Trump d\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ecbnh \u00e1p thu\u1ebf qu\u00e1 c\u1ea3nh 20% \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz, khi\u1ebfn xung \u0111\u1ed9t leo thang. D\u1ea7u th\u00f4 Brent t\u0103ng h\u01a1n 9% trong m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y, m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t trong n\u0103m 2020, chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch NACHO quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i. T\u00ednh h\u1ee3p ph\u00e1p c\u1ee7a g\u00f3i t\u00ednh ph\u00ed c\u00f2n nhi\u1ec1u nghi v\u1ea5n nh\u01b0ng n\u00f3 g\u1eedi t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u v\u1ec1 r\u1ee7i ro t\u0103ng cao. Gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u 80-85 USD \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea1m vi c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n. V\u1ec1 l\u00e2u d\u00e0i, c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea9y nhanh vi\u1ec7c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng quanh eo bi\u1ec3n. \u0110\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2027, h\u01a1n 45% l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ea7u xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd s\u1ebd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111i qua eo bi\u1ec3n n\u00e0y.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10543,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[121],"tags":[1425,1423,1426,744,1427,1424],"class_list":["post-10542","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-financial-news","tag-nacho","tag-1423","tag-1426","tag-744","tag-1427","tag-1424"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10542","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10542"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10542\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10548,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10542\/revisions\/10548"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10543"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10542"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10542"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10542"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}