{"id":10635,"date":"2026-07-21T15:45:34","date_gmt":"2026-07-21T07:45:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/?p=10635"},"modified":"2026-07-21T15:45:38","modified_gmt":"2026-07-21T07:45:38","slug":"%e5%9c%b0%e7%bc%98%e5%86%b2%e7%aa%81%e5%8f%8d%e5%a4%8d%e6%8e%a8%e5%8d%87%e6%b2%b9%e4%bb%b7%e9%a3%8e%e9%99%a9%ef%bc%8c%e7%82%bc%e6%b2%b9%e7%93%b6%e9%a2%88%e4%b8%8e%e9%80%9a%e8%83%80%e5%8e%8b%e5%8a%9b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/luu-tru\/10635","title":{"rendered":"Xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ecba l\u00fd \u0111\u00e3 nhi\u1ec1u l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea9y r\u1ee7i ro v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u l\u00ean cao, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c n\u00fat th\u1eaft trong qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh l\u1ecdc d\u1ea7u v\u00e0 \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t."},"content":{"rendered":"

Nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u0129 m\u00f4 v\u00e0 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a Wmax k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p 7 Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t trong th\u00e1ng, d\u1eef li\u1ec7u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 v\u00e0 d\u1ea7u tinh ch\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t t\u1eeb c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u, d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t t\u1ea7n s\u1ed1 cao v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh truy\u1ec1n l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ecba l\u00fd v\u00e0 khung t\u00ednh to\u00e1n gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u nhi\u1ec1u k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n, nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u00e0 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n: T\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 leo thang tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i v\u00e0 giao th\u00f4ng h\u00e0ng h\u1ea3i \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c gi\u1ea3m, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi m\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda c\u1ee7a l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u0169 trang Houthi \u1edf Yemen ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a Saudi Arabia c\u00e1c tuy\u1ebfn \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng ban \u0111\u1ea7u Nguy c\u01a1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n ngu\u1ed3n cung d\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 v\u00e0 nguy c\u01a1 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n; \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng diesel ch\u00e2u \u00c2u l\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean gi\u00f3ng l\u00ean h\u1ed3i chu\u00f4ng c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o, n\u00fat th\u1eaft n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t trong qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh l\u1ecdc d\u1ea7u \u0111ang thay th\u1ebf ch\u00ednh d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 l\u00e0 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i trong vi\u1ec7c cung c\u1ea5p n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng; s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c truy\u1ec1n t\u1edbi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang v\u00e0 sau \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u00e2y chuy\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n ch\u00ednh.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7u th\u00f4: Xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb l\u1ea1i leo thang, gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi 120 USD trong k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n c\u1ef1c \u0111oan<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u n\u00e0y l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 x\u1ea5u \u0111i m\u1edbi c\u1ee7a t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng. D\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a Wmax cho th\u1ea5y sau khi m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ee3t giao tranh m\u1edbi n\u1ed5 ra gi\u1eefa M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Iran, s\u1ef1 c\u1ea3nh gi\u00e1c khi \u0111i qua eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 v\u00e0 s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u00e0u \u0111i qua c\u00e0ng gi\u1ea3m. Kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 hi\u1ec7n nay \u1edf V\u1ecbnh Ba T\u01b0 ch\u01b0a b\u1eb1ng 45% m\u1ee9c tr\u01b0\u1edbc chi\u1ebfn tranh. C\u00f9ng v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u0169 trang Houthi \u1edf Yemen \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f4ng khai tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 r\u1eb1ng h\u1ecd s\u1ebd \u00e1p \u0111\u1eb7t l\u1ec7nh phong t\u1ecfa h\u1ea3i qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u1ea2 R\u1eadp Saudi, \u0111i\u1ec3m r\u1ee7i ro v\u1ec1 ngu\u1ed3n cung n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111ang lan r\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb m\u1ed9t eo bi\u1ec3n duy nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ebfn to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 m\u1ea1ng l\u01b0\u1edbi v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i v\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh. Ph\u1ea1m vi v\u00e0 th\u1eddi gian gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n ngu\u1ed3n cung \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 mong \u0111\u1ee3i tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n

\"IMG_256\"<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ec3 \u1ee9ng ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y, Goldman Sachs \u0111\u00e3 c\u1eadp nh\u1eadt c\u00e1c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u trong b\u00e1o c\u00e1o m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh: Theo k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n c\u01a1 s\u1edf, gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng d\u1ea7n d\u1ecbu b\u1edbt, gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 Brent d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o trong qu\u00fd 4 l\u00e0 80 USD\/th\u00f9ng v\u00e0 s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i m\u1ee9c 75 USD\/th\u00f9ng v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2027; nh\u01b0ng n\u1ebfu t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c, d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 Brent s\u1ebd t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt l\u00ean h\u01a1n 120 USD\/th\u00f9ng trong qu\u00fd IV. Khung t\u00ednh to\u00e1n \u0111a k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n Wmax \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e1c minh nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0y: t\u1ed3n kho d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang \u1edf m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t trong nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c t\u1ed3n kho ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c gi\u1ea3m trong qu\u00fd 2 \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu th\u00eam kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ec7m c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. \u0110\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n theo gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u00fa s\u1ed1c cung \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng r\u1ee7i ro m\u00e0 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t nh\u00ecn chung \u0111\u1ec1u t\u0103ng l\u00ean.<\/p>\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd l\u00e0 tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n nay v\u1eabn c\u00f2n nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba r\u1ee7i ro h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf \u0111\u00e0 t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u. M\u1ed9t m\u1eb7t, nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c t\u1eeb \u1ea2 R\u1eadp Saudi \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t trong 8 n\u0103m, v\u00e0 nhu c\u1ea7u gia t\u0103ng b\u1ecb h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf; m\u1eb7t kh\u00e1c, gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u cao s\u1ebd ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i nhu c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng, v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9 co gi\u00e3n c\u1ee7a nhu c\u1ea7u s\u1ebd l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m b\u1edbt m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng. T\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn ng\u00e0y giao d\u1ecbch g\u1ea7n nh\u1ea5t, d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 Brent \u0111ang dao \u0111\u1ed9ng quanh m\u1ee9c 87 USD v\u00e0 d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 WTI v\u1eabn dao \u0111\u1ed9ng trong kho\u1ea3ng 82,5 USD. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111ang trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i \"t\u0103ng ph\u00ed b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba l\u00fd\" v\u00e0 \"h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda c\u1ea7u\". K\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch h\u00f2a gi\u1ea3i ng\u1eebng b\u1eafn 10 ng\u00e0y \u1edf c\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ed9 ngo\u1ea1i giao \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh, nh\u01b0ng s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t gi\u1eefa Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u00e0 Iran v\u1eabn c\u00f2n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 v\u00e0 chi\u1ec1u h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u1ee7a t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh v\u1eabn r\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn.<\/p>\n

<\/a>C\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o v\u1ec1 d\u1ea7u tinh ch\u1ebf: T\u1ed3n kho d\u1ea7u diesel \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u ch\u1ea1m \u0111\u00e1y, n\u00fat th\u1eaft trong qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh l\u1ecdc d\u1ea7u tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i<\/strong><\/p>\n

So v\u1edbi r\u1ee7i ro t\u1eeb ph\u00eda d\u1ea7u th\u00f4, t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7u tinh ch\u1ebf \u0111ang chi\u1ebfm \u01b0u th\u1ebf h\u01a1n. D\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t d\u1ea7u tinh ch\u1ebf c\u1ee7a Wmax cho th\u1ea5y cung v\u00e0 c\u1ea7u hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng diesel ch\u00e2u \u00c2u ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t, gi\u00e1 crack d\u1ea7u diesel \u1edf T\u00e2y B\u1eafc \u00c2u \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean m\u1ee9c cao k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c v\u00e0 t\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn l\u1ecdc d\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c cao k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c. Morgan Stanley \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ec9 ra r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng r\u1eb1ng n\u00fat th\u1eaft th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u hi\u1ec7n nay kh\u00f4ng n\u1eb1m \u1edf ngu\u1ed3n cung d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 m\u00e0 n\u1eb1m \u1edf qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh l\u1ecdc d\u1ea7u. Nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0y ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn theo d\u00f5i c\u1ee7a Wmax.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Nhi\u1ec1u c\u00fa s\u1ed1c v\u1ec1 ngu\u1ed3n cung \u0111ang \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi b\u00f3p ngh\u1eb9t ngu\u1ed3n cung d\u1ea7u diesel c\u1ee7a Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u: Ukraine ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u00e0n \u00e1p c\u00e1c c\u01a1 s\u1edf l\u1ecdc d\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a Nga, tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m ngu\u1ed3n nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a d\u1ea7u diesel c\u1ee7a Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u; k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 nh\u01b0 b\u00e3o, nhi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed9 c\u1ef1c cao v\u00e0o m\u00f9a h\u00e8 v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c b\u1ea3o tr\u00ec nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y l\u1ecdc d\u1ea7u b\u1ecb tr\u00ec ho\u00e3n, c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t l\u1ecdc d\u1ea7u t\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ecba ph\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u00e0ng b\u1ecb h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh cung c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a Morgan Stanley \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh t\u1ed3n kho d\u1ea7u diesel c\u1ee7a ch\u00e2u \u00c2u s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c gi\u1ea3m b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 8 v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng kho\u1ea3ng 299 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 11, m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t trong c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb \u00edt nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 n\u0103m 2015.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u n\u00e0y, Goldman Sachs khuy\u1ebfn ngh\u1ecb c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u00ean k\u00e9o d\u00e0i l\u1ecbch ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh d\u1ea7u diesel c\u1ee7a Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 12 n\u0103m 2026 \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 3 n\u0103m 2027 nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba nh\u1eefng c\u00fa s\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb t\u1eeb t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng v\u00e0 Nga. Wmax c\u0169ng nh\u1eafc nh\u1edf r\u1eb1ng gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u diesel hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 ngu\u1ed3n cung th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t. Morgan Stanley c\u0169ng n\u00eau r\u00f5 quan \u0111i\u1ec3m \u201c\u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng \u0111u\u1ed5i theo gi\u00e1 cao h\u01a1n\u201d. Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng gia t\u0103ng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ea7n c\u1ea3nh gi\u00e1c v\u1edbi r\u1ee7i ro theo \u0111u\u1ed5i m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 cao h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Truy\u1ec1n t\u1ea3i v\u0129 m\u00f4: C\u00fa s\u1ed1c n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ea9y l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u gia t\u0103ng, gi\u1ecdng \u0111i\u1ec7u di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u c\u1ee7a Fed ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd<\/strong><\/p>\n

S\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i li\u00ean t\u1ee5c c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111ang nhanh ch\u00f3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c truy\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ebfn c\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ed9 v\u0129 m\u00f4, l\u00e0m d\u1ea5y l\u00ean m\u1ed1i lo ng\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t. T\u00ednh to\u00e1n m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a BlackRock cho th\u1ea5y v\u00f2ng xung \u0111\u1ed9t n\u00e0y \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea9y t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t chung to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng 0,8 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m. C\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c nhi\u1ec1u v\u00e0o nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 Ch\u00e2u \u00c1, s\u1ebd ch\u1ecbu g\u00e1nh n\u1eb7ng v\u00e0 b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng cao h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n c\u1ee7a m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh truy\u1ec1n t\u1ea3i l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ecba ch\u1ea5t Wmax v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0y. Gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c truy\u1ec1n t\u1edbi gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i th\u00f4ng qua d\u1ea7u tinh ch\u1ebf, h\u00f3a ch\u1ea5t, chi ph\u00ed v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n v\u00e0 c\u00e1c d\u00e2y chuy\u1ec1n kh\u00e1c. Th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9 tr\u1ec5 t\u1eeb 1-2 th\u00e1ng v\u00e0 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 s\u1ebd d\u1ea7n xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n \u1edf s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t n\u1eeda cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m.<\/p>\n

\"\u0110\u00e1nh<\/p>\n

T\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i l\u00e0 c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 h\u01a1n n\u1eefa l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u c\u1ee7a Fed. Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung Qu\u1ed1c h\u1ea3i ngo\u1ea1i v\u00e0 c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c kh\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng M\u1ef9 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i v\u1eabn \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh thay v\u00ec x\u1ea5u \u0111i. V\u00f2ng s\u1ed1c n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1edbi s\u1ebd khi\u1ebfn C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o r\u1ee7i ro l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t gia t\u0103ng. K\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ban \u0111\u1ea7u s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c b\u1ecb ho\u00e3n l\u1ea1i v\u00e0 m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c duy tr\u00ec trong th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. PNC Asset Management c\u0169ng nh\u1eafc nh\u1edf r\u1eb1ng gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng s\u1ebd si\u1ebft ch\u1eb7t t\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh s\u1eeda ch\u1eefa t\u1ef7 su\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty ni\u00eam y\u1ebft v\u1eeba v\u00e0 nh\u1ecf c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1ecb gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n, v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u1ea1c quan c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a Fed c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng Wmax v\u00e0 manh m\u1ed1i theo d\u00f5i c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i<\/strong><\/p>\n

K\u1ebft h\u1ee3p m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecba l\u00fd, cung c\u1ea7u n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 truy\u1ec1n t\u1ea3i v\u0129 m\u00f4, Wmax \u0111\u01b0a ra \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n v\u1ec1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ebfp theo:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng:<\/strong>Theo k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n, d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 Brent s\u1ebd duy tr\u00ec \u1edf m\u1ee9c 80-90 \u0111\u00f4 la M\u1ef9, v\u00e0 c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u trong d\u1ea7u diesel kh\u00f3 gi\u1ea3m b\u1edbt trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n; n\u1ebfu xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c leo thang v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n Hormuz ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c di\u1ec5n ra, gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u v\u1eabn s\u1ebd c\u00f2n d\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecba \u0111\u1ec3 t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. Theo k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n c\u1ef1c \u0111oan, n\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t t\u1edbi 120 \u0111\u00f4 la M\u1ef9 trong qu\u00fd 4 v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd t\u0103ng l\u00ean.<\/li>\n
  2. T\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch v\u0129 m\u00f4:<\/strong>S\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t do n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ebd l\u00e0m ch\u1eadm t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 thay \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. L\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c duy tr\u00ec trong th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i, th\u1eddi h\u1ea1n c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i v\u00e0 m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c k\u00ecm h\u00e3m vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u00e1c c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c th\u1ef1c th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y cao.<\/li>\n
  3. Khuy\u1ebfn ngh\u1ecb chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea5u h\u00ecnh:<\/strong>\u1ede m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, kh\u00f4ng n\u00ean m\u00f9 qu\u00e1ng theo \u0111u\u1ed5i gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u cao h\u01a1n. S\u1ebd ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba ch\u1ea5t th\u00f4ng qua ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u1ecbch d\u1ea7u tinh ch\u1ebf, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u01b0\u1ee3ng ngu\u1ed3n, v.v.; th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n c\u1ea7n tr\u00e1nh \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 cao v\u00e0 c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m cao, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi t\u0103ng ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 cho c\u00e1c l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Trong th\u1eddi gian ti\u1ebfp theo, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i s\u1ebd t\u1eadp trung theo d\u00f5i b\u1ed1n manh m\u1ed1i c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i: th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t, vi\u1ec7c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch h\u00f2a gi\u1ea3i ng\u1eebng b\u1eafn trong 10 ng\u00e0y; th\u1ee9 hai, lu\u1ed3ng h\u00e0ng h\u1ea3i th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz v\u00e0 tuy\u1ebfn \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u1ecf; th\u1ee9 ba, nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i nh\u1ecf trong t\u1ed3n kho d\u1ea7u diesel \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 l\u00e2y lan v\u1ebft n\u1ee9t; th\u1ee9 t\u01b0, c\u00e1c tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 c\u00f3 li\u00ean quan c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang v\u1ec1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    S\u1ef1 leo thang xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea9y r\u1ee7i ro v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u l\u00ean cao. Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng di chuy\u1ec3n \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n 45% so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c tr\u01b0\u1edbc chi\u1ebfn tranh. K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n c\u1ef1c \u0111oan c\u1ee7a Goldman Sachs ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bgi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u Brent \u0111\u1ea1t 120 USD trong qu\u00fd 4. D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef d\u1ea7u diesel \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ea1m \u0111\u00e1y v\u00e0 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng t\u1eafc ngh\u1ebdn trong qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh l\u1ecdc d\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i. S\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea9y l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u l\u00ean cao, gi\u1ecdng \u0111i\u1ec7u di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd v\u00e0 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb ho\u00e3n l\u1ea1i.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10636,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[121],"tags":[1476,1477,1475,1474,287],"class_list":["post-10635","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-financial-news","tag-1476","tag-1477","tag-1475","tag-1474","tag-287"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10635","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10635"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10635\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10640,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10635\/revisions\/10640"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10636"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10635"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10635"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10635"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}