{"id":11180,"date":"2026-09-03T16:41:17","date_gmt":"2026-09-03T08:41:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/?p=11180"},"modified":"2026-09-03T16:41:22","modified_gmt":"2026-09-03T08:41:22","slug":"9%e6%9c%88%e7%be%8e%e8%81%94%e5%82%a8%e8%ae%ae%e6%81%af%e6%b2%83%e4%bb%80%e7%9a%84%e4%b8%89%e9%87%8d%e5%8d%9a%e5%bc%88%ef%bc%9a%e4%bf%a1%e8%aa%89%e9%94%9a%e7%82%b9%e3%80%81%e6%95%b0%e6%8d%ae%e7%9c%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/luu-tru\/11180","title":{"rendered":"Tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i tay ba c\u1ee7a Warsh t\u1ea1i cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Fed v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 9: Ni\u1ec1m tin v\u1eefng ch\u1eafc, s\u1ef1 th\u1eadt v\u1ec1 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u00e0 nguy c\u01a1 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp FOMC ng\u00e0y 15-16 th\u00e1ng 9 \u0111ang \u0111\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng nhanh sau cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp Jackson Hole. Cu\u1ed9c tranh lu\u1eadn k\u00e9o d\u00e0i lu\u00f4n xoay quanh vi\u1ec7c \u201cli\u1ec7u \u200b\u200bd\u1eef li\u1ec7u th\u00e1ng 8 c\u00f3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t hay kh\u00f4ng\u201d. Theo quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u0129 m\u00f4 Wmax, c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t m\u00e0 l\u00e0 cu\u1ed9c ki\u1ec3m tra ba l\u1ea7n v\u1ec1 \u201c\u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u2013 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u kinh t\u1ebf \u2013 nh\u1eefng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb\u201d m\u00e0 t\u00e2n Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Warsh l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb khi nh\u1eadm ch\u1ee9c. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1eabn \u0111ang s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng khu\u00f4n kh\u1ed5 tuy\u1ebfn t\u00ednh \"d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u2192 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch\" truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0a ra d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n, nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a nh\u1eadn ra r\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9c n\u0103ng ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng, logic truy\u1ec1n th\u00f4ng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c r\u00e0ng bu\u1ed9c c\u1ee7a Fed \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ea3i qua nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i s\u00e2u s\u1eafc d\u01b0\u1edbi th\u1eddi Warsh.<\/p>\n

<\/a>T\u00edn hi\u1ec7u t\u1eeb Jackson Hole: K\u1ef7 lu\u1eadt \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u01b0u ti\u00ean h\u01a1n s\u1ef1 h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn, gi\u1ecdng \u0111i\u1ec7u di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u \u0111\u00e3 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh<\/strong><\/p>\n

B\u00e0i ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u c\u1ee7a Warsh t\u1ea1i cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp th\u01b0\u1eddng ni\u00ean c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u1edf Jackson Hole l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec3m m\u1ea5u ch\u1ed1t \u0111\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chu k\u1ef3 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u00e0y. \u00d4ng th\u1eeba nh\u1eadn r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng r\u1eb1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u1eabn \u0111ang \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n trong d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t m\u00f9a h\u00e8 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n s\u1ef1 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a trong xu h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n. N\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111ang gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u1ee7 nhanh \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau 2%, Fed \u201cv\u1eabn c\u00f2n vi\u1ec7c ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0m\u201d. Nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, \u00f4ng kh\u00f4ng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u01b0a ra cam k\u1ebft t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u1ea1i cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp th\u00e1ng 9, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 ch\u1ee9c n\u0103ng ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Wmax tin r\u1eb1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng lu\u00f4n b\u1ecb \u00e1m \u1ea3nh b\u1edfi vi\u1ec7c t\u00ecm ra c\u00e2u tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng cho vi\u1ec7c \"c\u00f3 n\u00ean t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t hay kh\u00f4ng\" t\u1eeb c\u00e1c b\u00e0i ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u v\u00e0 v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a tho\u00e1t kh\u1ecfi s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng. Tri\u1ebft l\u00fd ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a Warsh l\u00e0 thay th\u1ebf cam k\u1ebft b\u1eb1ng k\u1ef7 lu\u1eadt v\u00e0 thay th\u1ebf d\u1eef li\u1ec7u t\u1eebng \u0111i\u1ec3m b\u1eb1ng ph\u00e1n \u0111o\u00e1n xu h\u01b0\u1edbng. \u00d4ng \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb b\u00e0i ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t \"l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh\" h\u01a1n l\u00e0 \"h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda tr\u01b0\u1edbc\" v\u00e0 th\u1eb3ng th\u1eafn tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 r\u1eb1ng sau n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 \"l\u1ed7i th\u1eddi qu\u00e1 l\u00e2u\" - \u0111\u00e2y kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 m\u01a1 h\u1ed3, m\u00e0 l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh truy\u1ec1n th\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a Fed m\u00e0 \u00f4ng t\u00edch c\u1ef1c th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y: t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng \"im l\u1eb7ng h\u01a1n v\u00e0 c\u00f3 m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch h\u01a1n\", cho ph\u00e9p th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc kinh t\u1ebf c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n, thay v\u00ec theo d\u00f5i c\u00e1c b\u00e0i ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u00e2y ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 l\u00fd do s\u00e2u xa khi\u1ebfn h\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch th\u00e1ng 7 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 l\u00e0 \u201ckh\u00f3 hi\u1ec3u nh\u1ea5t th\u1eddi gian g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y\u201d. Trong khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1eabn \u0111ang ch\u1edd \u0111\u1ee3i m\u1ed9t l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng, Warsh \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ee1 b\u1ecf khu\u00f4n kh\u1ed5 h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. \u0110\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 t\u1eeb n\u1ed9i l\u1ef1c, 3 trong s\u1ed1 12 th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean b\u1ecf phi\u1ebfu t\u1ea1i cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp th\u00e1ng 7 ph\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i vi\u1ec7c gi\u1eef nguy\u00ean l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng khai; B\u00e0i ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u t\u1ea1i Jackson Hole c\u1ee7a Warsh v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n l\u00e0 nh\u1eb1m th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t quan \u0111i\u1ec3m ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch trong n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n quy\u1ebft t\u00e2m ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i, thay v\u00ec ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch duy nh\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n

<\/a>S\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u00f9 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u: l\u1ef1c k\u00e9o hai chi\u1ec1u gi\u1eefa kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh gi\u1ea3m vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m<\/strong><\/p>\n

Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i coi b\u1ea3ng l\u01b0\u01a1ng phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p th\u00e1ng 8 v\u00e0 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u CPI l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u1eafng v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi thua duy nh\u1ea5t trong c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u00e1ng 9, nh\u01b0ng Wmax tin r\u1eb1ng m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p c\u1ee7a d\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u01b0\u1ee3t xa m\u1ed9t con s\u1ed1 h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng v\u00e0 c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 sai l\u1ec7ch r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng trong nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ec1 t\u00ednh x\u00e1c th\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a d\u1eef li\u1ec7u. T\u1eeb g\u00f3c \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, \u00e1p l\u1ef1c th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac k\u00e9p: m\u1ed9t m\u1eb7t, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 v\u1eabn cao h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau 2% h\u00e0ng n\u0103m v\u00e0 t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf t\u0103ng cao. Gi\u00e1 x\u0103ng trung b\u00ecnh t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng 40% k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 2. Nguy c\u01a1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o t\u0103ng tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i v\u1eabn c\u00f2n \u0111\u00f3, l\u00e0 c\u01a1 s\u1edf c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i \u0111\u1ec3 phe di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u ch\u1ee7 tr\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t; nh\u01b0ng m\u1eb7t kh\u00e1c, quan ch\u1ee9c M\u1ef9 s\u1ebd c\u1eadp nh\u1eadt ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p t\u00ednh ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 gi\u00e1 PCE v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng n\u00e0y v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bs\u1ebd \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh th\u00eam \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t, t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 \"gi\u1ea3m l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t\". C\u00e1c quy tr\u00ecnh c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ef1 b\u1ed9c l\u1ed9 nhanh h\u01a1n d\u1eef li\u1ec7u b\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t.<\/p>\n

\"IMG_257\"<\/p>\n

M\u1ed1i quan t\u00e2m l\u1edbn h\u01a1n l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m. D\u1eef li\u1ec7u m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t t\u1eeb \u200b\u200bC\u1ee5c Th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea Lao \u0111\u1ed9ng Hoa K\u1ef3 cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng trong n\u0103m t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 3 n\u0103m nay, vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m phi n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bs\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh gi\u1ea3m 79.000, trong \u0111\u00f3 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m trong khu v\u1ef1c t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh gi\u1ea3m t\u1edbi 178.000. M\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m trung b\u00ecnh h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf ch\u1ec9 kho\u1ea3ng 11.000, th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh m\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y. Hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m y\u1ebfu trong c\u00e1c l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c b\u00e1n l\u1ebb, s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, kinh doanh d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c kh\u00e1c cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 x\u00f3i m\u00f2n v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda c\u1ea7u \u0111ang di\u1ec5n ra v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 qu\u00e1 cao m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng. Wmax \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 r\u1eb1ng Warsh lu\u00f4n ph\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i vi\u1ec7c t\u1eadp trung qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u duy nh\u1ea5t, v\u00ec v\u1eady ngay c\u1ea3 khi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u th\u00e1ng 8 y\u1ebfu, n\u00f3 c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp t\u1eeb b\u1ecf \u00fd \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t; ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, d\u00f9 m\u1ea1nh c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp d\u1eabn t\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t. C\u01a1 s\u1edf \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng l\u00e0 \"xu h\u01b0\u1edbng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n\", ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng. Vi\u1ec7c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01b0\u1ee3c qu\u00e1 nhi\u1ec1u v\u00e0o d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111\u01a1n l\u1ebb hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n l\u00e0 do kh\u00f4ng th\u00edch \u1ee9ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi ch\u1ee9c n\u0103ng ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng m\u1edbi c\u1ee7a Fed.<\/p>\n

<\/a>R\u00e0ng bu\u1ed9c k\u00e9p: V\u00e1ch \u0111\u00e1 uy t\u00edn v\u00e0 R\u1ea1n san h\u00f4 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 kh\u00eda c\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp n\u00e0y r\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1ecb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p. Wmax tin r\u1eb1ng Wash hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang \u0111\u1ee9ng tr\u00ean ranh gi\u1edbi k\u00e9p gi\u1eefa uy t\u00edn v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, c\u00f9ng nhau ph\u00e2n \u0111\u1ecbnh ranh gi\u1edbi kh\u1ea3 thi c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh. T\u1eeb g\u00f3c \u0111\u1ed9 uy t\u00edn, Warsh tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 minh b\u1ea1ch t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm v\u1ecb tr\u00ed ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n quan \u0111i\u1ec3m di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u sau khi nh\u1eadm ch\u1ee9c. Cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp \u1edf Jackson Hole c\u00e0ng c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 th\u00eam quan \u0111i\u1ec3m ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t. N\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0o trong th\u00e1ng 9, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ebd tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1eb7t c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi v\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ed9 tin c\u1eady c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng nh\u1eadn x\u00e9t di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng, h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n v\u1ec1 \u201cl\u1eddi n\u00f3i c\u1ee9ng r\u1eafn nh\u01b0ng b\u00e0n tay m\u1ec1m m\u1ea1i\u201d. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 t\u1ed1n k\u00e9m \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Warsh, ng\u01b0\u1eddi v\u1eeba m\u1edbi nh\u1eadm ch\u1ee9c v\u00e0 \u0111ang c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng l\u1ea1i uy t\u00edn c\u1ee7a ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng - nh\u01b0 quan s\u00e1t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn: vi\u1ec7c kh\u00f4ng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00fang 100% v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t kinh t\u1ebf, nh\u01b0ng n\u00f3 s\u1ebd khi\u1ebfn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng coi th\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1ecdi tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb b\u00e2y gi\u1edd.<\/p>\n

T\u1eeb g\u00f3c \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, cu\u1ed9c b\u1ea7u c\u1eed gi\u1eefa nhi\u1ec7m k\u1ef3 c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 3 th\u00e1ng 11 \u0111ang \u0111\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u0111ang tr\u1edf n\u00ean r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng. Trump ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y \u201cm\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi\u201d, v\u1edbi l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a kho\u1ea3n n\u1ee3 li\u00ean bang 40 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 USD t\u0103ng l\u00ean m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t trong 20 n\u0103m v\u00e0 \u00e1p l\u1ef1c tr\u1ea3 l\u00e3i t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh. Nh\u00e0 Tr\u1eafng v\u00e0 phe C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a lo ng\u1ea1i r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t s\u1ebd l\u00e0m t\u0103ng th\u00eam chi ph\u00ed \u0111i vay, \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c v\u1ec1 chi ph\u00ed sinh ho\u1ea1t c\u1ee7a c\u1eed tri v\u00e0 thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 t\u1ea1o \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb cho \u0110\u1ea3ng D\u00e2n ch\u1ee7. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 Fed duy tr\u00ec s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch tr\u00ean danh ngh\u0129a nh\u01b0ng nh\u1eefng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf c\u1ee7a m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb l\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1eadt. B\u1ea3n th\u00e2n vi\u1ec7c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn kh\u00f4ng h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ea1i cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp th\u00e1ng 7 \u0111\u00e3 bao g\u1ed3m nh\u1eefng c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Wmax ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u01b0\u1eddng r\u01a1i v\u00e0o c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n nh\u1ecb ph\u00e2n \u201cC\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp\u201d ho\u1eb7c \u201cch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n b\u1ecb ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb h\u00f3a\u201d, trong khi tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 lu\u00f4n t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm s\u1ef1 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng gi\u1eefa c\u1ea3 hai. Warsh ph\u1ea3i s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec uy t\u00edn c\u1ee7a ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng trong vi\u1ec7c ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi tr\u00e1nh t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n b\u1ea7u c\u1eed nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Khai s\u00e1ng v\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n: C\u00e1c trung t\u00e2m bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao v\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao song song<\/strong><\/p>\n

V\u1ec1 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n l\u1edbn, Wmax \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean khu\u00f4n kh\u1ed5 tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i ba ng\u01b0\u1eddi:<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ea7u ti\u00ean, s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ebd gia t\u0103ng m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng b\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u0103ng v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 9 hay kh\u00f4ng. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh li\u00ean l\u1ea1c \"kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp\" c\u1ee7a Warsh s\u1ebd t\u1ef1 l\u00e0m t\u0103ng ph\u1ea1m vi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn. T\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng bi\u00ean c\u1ee7a d\u1eef li\u1ec7u kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 c\u00e1c b\u00e0i ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i v\u00e0 v\u00f2ng ph\u1ea3n h\u1ed3i \"k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng d\u1eef li\u1ec7u\" s\u1ebd ng\u1eafn h\u01a1n v\u00e0 c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n

Th\u1ee9 hai, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n cao v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu M\u1ef9 s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i. Logic c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng, \u00e1p l\u1ef1c cung n\u1ee3 v\u00e0 ph\u00ed b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n t\u0103ng v\u1eabn c\u00f2n \u0111\u00f3. K\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t s\u1ebd ch\u1ec9 c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 th\u00eam trung t\u00e2m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao; ngay c\u1ea3 khi kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t n\u00e0o trong th\u00e1ng 9, n\u00f3 s\u1ebd ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0m tr\u00ec ho\u00e3n t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng chuy\u1ec3n sang n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng.<\/p>\n

Th\u1ee9 ba, v\u00e0ng v\u1eabn b\u1ecb \u1ee9c ch\u1ebf b\u1edfi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 kh\u00f3 h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9t ph\u00e1 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng. Tuy nhi\u00ean, trong trung h\u1ea1n, s\u1ef1 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p gi\u1eefa \u00e1p l\u1ef1c n\u1ee3, kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf c\u1eadn bi\u00ean v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a b\u1ecb ph\u00e1 h\u1ee7y v\u00e0 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u1eabn t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i sau khi \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh gi\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Nh\u00ecn chung, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i v\u1eabn \u0111ang ch\u01a1i m\u1ed9t tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i nh\u1ecb ph\u00e2n xoay quanh \u201cx\u00e1c su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t\u201d, nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecf qua \u00fd ngh\u0129a s\u00e2u s\u1eafc h\u01a1n c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp n\u00e0y: \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean tri\u1ebft l\u00fd ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a Warsh ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t th\u1eed th\u00e1ch th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1, v\u00e0 n\u00f3 c\u0169ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3m m\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ec3 C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb \u201ck\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai\u201d sang \u201ck\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng k\u1ef7 lu\u1eadt\u201d.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Khi cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 15-16 th\u00e1ng 9 \u0111\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n, t\u00e2n Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Warsh l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi ba th\u1eed th\u00e1ch v\u1ec1 \"ni\u1ec1m tin c\u1eady, s\u1ef1 th\u1eadt v\u1ec1 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u00e0 nguy c\u01a1 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb\". S\u1ef1 lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf s\u00e2u s\u1eafc c\u1ee7a Wmax: Gi\u1ecdng \u0111i\u1ec7u di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u c\u1ee7a Jackson Hole \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1eef v\u1eefng, nh\u01b0ng vi\u1ec7c d\u1eef li\u1ec7u vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh gi\u1ea3m 178.000 \u0111\u00e3 g\u00e2y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u00ean kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 cu\u1ed9c b\u1ea7u c\u1eed gi\u1eefa nhi\u1ec7m k\u1ef3 v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 11 \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o th\u00eam nh\u1eefng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1eabn \u0111ang d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng khu\u00f4n kh\u1ed5 tuy\u1ebfn t\u00ednh \"d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u2192 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch\" truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng, nh\u01b0ng ch\u01b0a nh\u1eadn ra r\u1eb1ng Warsh \u0111\u00e3 lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp v\u00e0 chuy\u1ec3n sang h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn k\u1ef7 lu\u1eadt. B\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u00f3 t\u0103ng hay kh\u00f4ng, bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cao v\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao s\u1ebd c\u00f9ng t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i. V\u00e0ng s\u1ebd b\u1ecb \u1ee9c ch\u1ebf trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0ng m\u1ee9c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 trung h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a b\u1ecb ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11181,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[121],"tags":[1638,1637,503,1635,1636,372],"class_list":["post-11180","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-financial-news","tag-1638","tag-1637","tag-503","tag-1635","tag-1636","tag-372"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11180","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11180"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11180\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11186,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11180\/revisions\/11186"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/11181"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11180"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11180"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11180"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}