{"id":11460,"date":"2026-10-14T16:02:48","date_gmt":"2026-10-14T08:02:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/?p=11460"},"modified":"2026-10-14T16:02:53","modified_gmt":"2026-10-14T08:02:53","slug":"9-%e6%9c%88-cpi-%e5%89%8d%e5%a4%9c-%e7%bb%93%e6%9e%84%e5%88%86%e5%8c%96%e3%80%81%e6%94%bf%e7%ad%96%e5%8d%9a%e5%bc%88%e4%b8%8e%e8%b5%84%e4%ba%a7%e5%ae%9a%e4%bb%b7%e7%9a%84%e8%84%86","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/luu-tru\/11460","title":{"rendered":"Tr\u01b0\u1edbc th\u1ec1m CPI th\u00e1ng 9 - S\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u, tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng mong manh c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n"},"content":{"rendered":"

D\u1eef li\u1ec7u CPI th\u00e1ng 9 c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 s\u1ebd s\u1edbm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1. K\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u00ednh th\u1ed1ng t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh b\u1eb1ng s\u1ed1 r\u1eb1ng \"n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea9y l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 l\u00ean cao v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n s\u1ebd ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i \u1edf m\u1ee9c c\u1eadn bi\u00ean\". Gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ec3 C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang t\u1ea1m d\u1eebng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 10 l\u00e0 g\u1ea7n 80%. Theo quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u0129 m\u00f4 Wmax, gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a d\u1eef li\u1ec7u n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng n\u1eb1m \u1edf vi\u1ec7c li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u00f3 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng hay kh\u00f4ng, m\u00e0 n\u1eb1m \u1edf ti\u1ebfn tr\u00ecnh truy\u1ec1n t\u1ea3i c\u00e1c c\u00fa s\u1ed1c gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ebfn l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u00e0 t\u00ednh d\u1ec5 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1eb1ng sau nh\u1eefng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng - khi h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c giao d\u1ecbch \u0111ang \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01b0\u1ee3c theo c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t h\u01b0\u1edbng, m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 nh\u1ecf c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u00e2y ra s\u1ef1 khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng nhanh ch\u00f3ng.<\/p>\n

C\u01a1 c\u1ea5u l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t: n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng chung, trong khi c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i \u0111ang ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i nh\u01b0ng \u1ea9n ch\u1ee9a nguy c\u01a1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng<\/h2>\n

Wmax k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac ti\u1ec3u m\u1ee5c. Trong th\u00e1ng 9, CPI t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bs\u1ebd t\u0103ng 0,6% so v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 l\u00ean 3,6% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc, \u0111\u00e2y s\u1ebd l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t trong 5 th\u00e1ng. CPI c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200b\u200b\u200bs\u1ebd t\u0103ng 0,2% so v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 t\u0103ng nh\u1eb9 l\u00ean 2,5% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc, cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u gi\u1eefa \"n\u00f3ng t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 v\u00e0 \u1ea5m c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i\". N\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t t\u0103ng l\u00ean t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 n\u00e0y. Do xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng, r\u1ee7i ro v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz v\u00e0 ngu\u1ed3n cung s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m d\u1ea7u tinh ch\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u b\u1ecb th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t, d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 Brent \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng h\u01a1n 14% trong th\u00e1ng 9 v\u00e0 kho\u1ea3ng 42% trong qu\u00fd 3, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi gi\u00e1 x\u0103ng b\u00e1n l\u1ebb c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t trong nhi\u1ec1u th\u00e1ng.<\/p>\n

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Wmax \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh ti\u1ec3u m\u1ee5c n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bs\u1ebd t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng 5% so v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc. \u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, chi ph\u00ed nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u h\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng t\u0103ng cao s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 v\u00e9 m\u00e1y bay t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng 3% so v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc, tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c ch\u00ednh cho c\u00e1c m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5. \u1ede m\u1ee9c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n, s\u1ef1 ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i trong ph\u00e2n ng\u00e0nh nh\u00e0 \u1edf v\u1eabn l\u00e0 l\u1ef1c c\u1ea3n ch\u00ednh. D\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn, gi\u00e1 thu\u00ea t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u1ee7a ch\u1ee7 s\u1edf h\u1eefu (OER) s\u1ebd t\u0103ng 0,20% so v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 thu\u00ea th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf s\u1ebd t\u0103ng 0,17% so v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc, ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng h\u1ea1 nhi\u1ec7t. V\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a, c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t, v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 \u00f4 t\u00f4 \u0111\u00e3 qua s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 danh m\u1ee5c y t\u1ebf gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng, g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp cho s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a ngu\u1ed3n cung c\u1ea5p gi\u1ea3i tr\u00ed v\u00e0 s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 th\u00f4ng tin.<\/p>\n

Wmax \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t nh\u1eafc nh\u1edf r\u1eb1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1eb7c tr\u01b0ng b\u1edfi c\u00e1c \"\u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00f3ng\" v\u00e0 ch\u01b0a ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200b\u200b\u200bs\u1ef1 t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c gi\u00e1 to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n theo phong c\u00e1ch n\u0103m 2022. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 c\u01a1 s\u1edf \u0111\u1ec3 C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang v\u1eabn ki\u00ean nh\u1eabn quan s\u00e1t. Tuy nhi\u00ean, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u00ecn chung \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p hai lo\u1ea1i r\u1ee7i ro ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n: th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t, s\u1ef1 truy\u1ec1n t\u1ea3i t\u1eebng l\u1edbp c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng sang giao th\u00f4ng v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i, th\u1ef1c ph\u1ea9m v\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t, v\u00e0 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng k\u00e9o d\u00e0i c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u cao v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7; th\u1ee9 hai, \u00e1p l\u1ef1c chi ph\u00ed do \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng AI mang l\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 trong c\u00e1c l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c nh\u01b0 m\u00e1y t\u00ednh, chip, x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng v\u00e0 h\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng. Lo\u1ea1i l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean ngu\u1ed3n cung n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ea3m theo chu k\u1ef3 nhu c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 l\u00e0 nguy c\u01a1 gia t\u0103ng quan tr\u1ecdng khi\u1ebfn l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 mong \u0111\u1ee3i.<\/p>\n

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Tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch: \u0110\u00ecnh ch\u1ec9 th\u00e1ng 10 l\u00e0 chu\u1ea9n m\u1ef1c, h\u00e3y c\u1ea3nh gi\u00e1c v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng s\u1eeda \u0111\u1ed5i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn<\/h2>\n

C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang v\u1eeba ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean sau ba n\u0103m v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 9, n\u00e2ng ph\u1ea1m vi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t qu\u1ef9 li\u00ean bang l\u00ean 3,75% -4,00%. V\u1eabn c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9 r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng v\u1ec1 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp theo: Waller v\u00e0 c\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c kh\u00e1c th\u00edch th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng theo t\u1eebng kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0 tin r\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft ph\u1ea3i t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong hai cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp; Hammack t\u1ecf ra di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u h\u01a1n v\u00e0 tin r\u1eb1ng \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u00e3 lan sang nhi\u1ec1u khu v\u1ef1c h\u01a1n v\u00e0 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch nh\u1ecf v\u00e0 th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean, nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u1ecf li\u1ec7u c\u00f3 n\u00ean h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 10 hay kh\u00f4ng.<\/p>\n

Gi\u00e1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng kh\u00f4ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong th\u00e1ng 10: C\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 FedWatch c\u1ee7a CME Group cho th\u1ea5y x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 10 ch\u1ec9 kho\u1ea3ng 20%, trong khi x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 12 cao t\u1edbi 88%. Wmax \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c t\u1ea1m d\u1eebng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 10 v\u1eabn l\u00e0 t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u00e0 c\u00f3 hai logic c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i: Th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t, sau l\u1ea7n t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 9, C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang c\u1ea7n th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng truy\u1ec1n t\u1ea3i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch v\u00e0 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, v\u1ed1n l\u00e0 kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian quan s\u00e1t b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng; th\u1ee9 hai, l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 10 n\u0103m c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u1edf m\u1ee9c tr\u00ean 5%, v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n \u0111\u00e3 th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ed9ng, thay th\u1ebf ch\u1ee9c n\u0103ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u1edf m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/p>\n

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Tuy nhi\u00ean, Wmax c\u0169ng nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 \u201ckh\u00f4ng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong th\u00e1ng 10\u201d c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 qu\u00e1 nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c t\u1ea1o n\u00ean l\u1ed7 h\u1ed5ng trong \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1. N\u1ebfu CPI c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 mong \u0111\u1ee3i v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea1t 0,3% ho\u1eb7c cao h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc, th\u00ec c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u00e1c minh r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c c\u00fa s\u1ed1c n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u00e3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u lan sang h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a v\u00e0 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i, v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ebd nhanh ch\u00f3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 10, g\u00e2y ra nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u1eef d\u1ed9i trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n v\u1ec1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i. T\u1eeb g\u00f3c \u0111\u1ed9 c\u1ea3 n\u0103m, m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t kh\u00e1c tr\u01b0\u1edbc cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m v\u1eabn l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra cao v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 v\u1ec1 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i v\u1ec1 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng h\u01b0\u1edbng.<\/p>\n

T\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n: Ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1ee9ng v\u00e0 ranh gi\u1edbi \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu<\/h2>\n

Sau \u0111\u1ee3t \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh m\u1ea1nh sau \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 9, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu kho b\u1ea1c M\u1ef9 k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 10 n\u0103m \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean g\u1ea7n m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t trong 24 n\u0103m. Ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi CPI cho th\u1ea5y nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m b\u1ea5t c\u00e2n x\u1ee9ng r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng. Wmax tin r\u1eb1ng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a d\u1eef li\u1ec7u n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu tu\u00e2n theo quy lu\u1eadt \u201ctr\u00ean c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec9nh, d\u01b0\u1edbi c\u00f3 \u0111\u00e1y\u201d:<\/p>\n