{"id":7939,"date":"2025-12-12T15:45:47","date_gmt":"2025-12-12T07:45:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/?p=7939"},"modified":"2025-12-12T15:45:53","modified_gmt":"2025-12-12T07:45:53","slug":"%e4%be%9b%e9%9c%80%e5%8d%9a%e5%bc%88%e4%b8%8b%e7%9a%84%e6%b2%b9%e5%b8%82%e8%bf%b7%e9%9b%be%ef%bc%9awmax%e5%9f%ba%e4%ba%8eiea%e4%b8%8eopec12%e6%9c%88%e6%8a%a5%e5%91%8a%e7%9a%84%e4%b8%93%e4%b8%9a","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/luu-tru\/7939","title":{"rendered":"S\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u00f9 c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf trong tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i cung c\u1ea7u: Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u00e0 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh chuy\u00ean m\u00f4n c\u1ee7a Wmax d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean b\u00e1o c\u00e1o th\u00e1ng 12 c\u1ee7a IEA v\u00e0 OPEC"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ng\u00e0y 11\/12, C\u01a1 quan N\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf (IEA) v\u00e0 T\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf (OPEC) l\u1ea7n l\u01b0\u1ee3t c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 b\u00e1o c\u00e1o n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng. L\u00e0 m\u1ed9t t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u00e3 tham gia s\u00e2u v\u00e0o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1eeb l\u00e2u v\u00e0 c\u00f3 t\u1ea7m nh\u00ecn to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft s\u00e2u s\u1eafc v\u1ec1 ng\u00e0nh, Wmax \u0111\u00e3 ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chuy\u00ean s\u00e2u v\u00e0 x\u00e1c minh ch\u00e9o hai b\u00e1o c\u00e1o. , m\u1ed9t c\u00e1i nh\u00ecn s\u00e2u s\u1eafc r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng v\u1ec1 k\u1ebft c\u1ea5u ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p c\u1ee7a tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i cung v\u00e0 c\u1ea7u tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u - hai b\u00e1o c\u00e1o cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 trong nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ec1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nhu c\u1ea7u, c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng cung \u1ee9ng v\u00e0 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Tuy nhi\u00ean, h\u1ecd c\u00f9ng nhau ph\u00e1c th\u1ea3o nh\u1eefng xung \u0111\u1ed9t c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i v\u1ec1 nhu c\u1ea7u l\u1ee3i \u00edch c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 ng\u01b0\u1eddi s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng. \u0110\u1eb1ng sau \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed3 kh\u00e1ch quan v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u00e0 c\u00f2n l\u00e0 t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u s\u00e2u s\u1eafc v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n

<\/a>D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o nhu c\u1ea7u: Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch logic v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch h\u1ee3p l\u00fd \u0111\u1eb1ng sau s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t<\/strong><\/p>\n

S\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bv\u1ec1 ph\u00eda c\u1ea7u l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a hai b\u00e1o c\u00e1o n\u00e0y. Wmax \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n th\u00f4ng qua vi\u1ec7c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chuy\u00ean s\u00e2u d\u1eef li\u1ec7u d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u1ee7a hai t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c l\u1edbn v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0nh r\u1eb1ng OPEC \u0111\u00e3 ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nhu c\u1ea7u l\u1ea7n th\u1ee9 n\u0103m k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng B\u1ea3y. D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nhu c\u1ea7u d\u1ea7u to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2024 gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 210.000 th\u00f9ng\/ng\u00e0y xu\u1ed1ng 1,61 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng\/ng\u00e0y (m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t trong n\u0103m, v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m l\u0169y k\u1ebf 27% so v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o ban \u0111\u1ea7u h\u1ed3i th\u00e1ng 7). \u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nhu c\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2025 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ea1 t\u1eeb 1,54 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng\/ng\u00e0y xu\u1ed1ng 1,45 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng\/ng\u00e0y. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 OPEC nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh r\u1eb1ng t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \"cao h\u01a1n m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh tr\u01b0\u1edbc d\u1ecbch b\u1ec7nh\", Wmax k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n v\u1ec1 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh cung c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0nh v\u00e0 x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn ch\u00e9o c\u00e1c quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u00f3 th\u1ea9m quy\u1ec1n trong ng\u00e0nh, tin r\u1eb1ng xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m n\u00e0y l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh kh\u1ecfi \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u y\u1ebfu k\u00e9m v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2025 c\u1ee7a OPEC l\u00e0 1,45 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng m\u1ed7i ng\u00e0y v\u1eabn c\u00f2n ch\u1ed7 \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh th\u00eam - x\u00e9t cho c\u00f9ng, t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng h\u00e0ng n\u0103m l\u00e0 h\u01a1n 1,5 tri\u1ec7u s\u1ed1 th\u00f9ng m\u1ed7i ng\u00e0y l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t hi\u1ebfm hoi v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh ban \u0111\u1ea7u r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng l\u00e0 \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd l\u00e0 ngay c\u1ea3 sau khi \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh gi\u1ea3m li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp, k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 nhu c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a OPEC v\u1eabn cao h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 so v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. So s\u00e1nh d\u1eef li\u1ec7u Wmax cho th\u1ea5y d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 1,61 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng\/ng\u00e0y v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2024 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 v\u01b0\u1ee3t xa con s\u1ed1 840.000 th\u00f9ng\/ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a IEA m\u00e0 c\u00f2n g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 nh\u01b0 Morgan Stanley v\u00e0 Goldman Sachs. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh \"c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n bi\u00ean\" do IEA \u0111\u01b0a ra (n\u00e2ng d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nhu c\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2025 th\u00eam 90.000 th\u00f9ng\/ng\u00e0y l\u00ean 1,1 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng\/ng\u00e0y, th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n 350.000 th\u00f9ng\/ng\u00e0y so v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o c\u1ee7a OPEC), Wmax tin r\u1eb1ng \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y th\u1ef1c ch\u1ea5t l\u00e0 do s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t v\u1ec1 t\u1ea7m quan tr\u1ecdng th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea: OPEC t\u1eadp trung nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n v\u00e0o ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00f4ng thu\u1ed9c OECD (t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nhu c\u1ea7u trong nh\u00f3m n\u00e0y d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea1t 1,5 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng\/ng\u00e0y v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2024), trong khi IEA nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m h\u01a1n v\u1edbi nhu c\u1ea7u y\u1ebfu \u1edf khu v\u1ef1c OECD. S\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 sai l\u1ec7ch d\u1eef li\u1ec7u m\u00e0 l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n ch\u00e2n th\u1ef1c v\u1ec1 c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac nhu c\u1ea7u th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1eeb c\u00e1c g\u00f3c \u0111\u1ed9 kh\u00e1c nhau. Wmax \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e1c th\u1ef1c ch\u00e9o d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111a chi\u1ec1u v\u00e0 x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ch\u00e2u \u00c1 m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i v\u1eabn l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i cho t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nhu c\u1ea7u d\u1ea7u to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. C\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 nh\u01b0 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch gia t\u0103ng g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c, tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 suy y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la M\u1ef9 \u0111ang h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 ch\u00ednh cho ph\u00eda c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch cung \u1ee9ng: c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i cam k\u1ebft c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u1edbi th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tr\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh v\u1ec1 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng nhu c\u1ea7u, c\u00e1c ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u1eeb ph\u00eda cung \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Wmax \u0111\u00e3 theo d\u00f5i ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a OPEC+ v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1ec1 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng hai t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 c\u1ea3 s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn v\u00e0 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed3ng trong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y. OPEC ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 r\u00f5 \u200b\u200br\u00e0ng r\u1eb1ng li\u00ean minh OPEC+ \u0111\u00e3 gia h\u1ea1n bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1ef1 nguy\u1ec7n 2,2 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng\/ng\u00e0y ban \u0111\u1ea7u d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bh\u1ebft h\u1ea1n v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 12 \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 3 n\u0103m 2025, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u1ed5ng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng 39,725 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng\/ng\u00e0y t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2025 \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2026. Wmax tin r\u1eb1ng quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0y g\u1eedi m\u1ed9t t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c \"duy tr\u00ec s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh\" cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 l\u00e0 bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t d\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn v\u1ec1 nhu c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p h\u01a1n. Wmax th\u00f4ng qua theo d\u00f5i ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c d\u1eef li\u1ec7u s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng cho th\u1ea5y vi\u1ec7c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a OPEC kh\u00f4ng h\u1ec1 ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o: v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 11 n\u0103m 2024, s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 trung b\u00ecnh h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a OPEC \u0111\u1ea1t 26,66 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng, t\u0103ng 104.000 th\u00f9ng so v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng 10. S\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u0103ng 141.000 th\u00f9ng\/ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a Libya tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh ngu\u1ed3n t\u0103ng ch\u00ednh. Chi ti\u1ebft n\u00e0y ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu uy t\u00edn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t. Quan s\u00e1t nghi\u1ec7t ng\u00e3 c\u1ee7a IEA tr\u00f9ng kh\u1edbp v\u1edbi nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a Wmax: M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00ecnh ch\u1ec9 t\u0103ng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a OPEC+ \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m ngu\u1ed3n cung to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u 1,5 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng m\u1ed7i ng\u00e0y so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ec9nh v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 9, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi Nga v\u00e0 Venezuela \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ea3i qua s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng do c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t, nh\u01b0ng c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00f4ng thu\u1ed9c OPEC+ \u0110\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c t\u0103ng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u00e3 h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t h\u00e0ng r\u00e0o hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 - Wmax D\u1ef1a tr\u00ean d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n v\u1ec1 quy ho\u1ea1ch n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a nhi\u1ec1u qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c nhau, Hoa K\u1ef3, Brazil, Canada v\u00e0 c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia s\u1ebd \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p h\u01a1n 1,1 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng m\u1ed7i ng\u00e0y v\u00e0o m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2025, v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng nhu c\u1ea7u to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n

\"\u5c40\u90e8\u622a\u53d6_20251212_142434\"<\/p>\n

B\u00f3ng t\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng d\u01b0 cung lu\u00f4n bao tr\u00f9m th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Wmax l\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 IEA \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ea1 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o d\u01b0 cung l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 5 (gi\u1ea3m ngu\u1ed3n cung d\u01b0 th\u1eeba trong n\u0103m 2026 t\u1eeb 4,046 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng\/ng\u00e0y xu\u1ed1ng 3,815 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng\/ng\u00e0y), quy m\u00f4 v\u1eabn l\u00e0 \u201ccao th\u1ee9 hai trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed sau th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 d\u1ecbch b\u1ec7nh n\u0103m 2020\u201d. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1ng b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n n\u1eefa l\u00e0 Wmax nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y qua d\u1eef li\u1ec7u gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t t\u1ed3n kho to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u r\u1eb1ng t\u1ed3n kho d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t trong 4 n\u0103m v\u00e0 t\u1ed3n kho l\u01b0u tr\u1eef n\u1ed5i ngo\u00e0i kh\u01a1i \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. Tuy nhi\u00ean, d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 t\u1eeb c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc b\u1ecb tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t nh\u01b0 Iran, Nga kh\u00f3 v\u00e0o h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng l\u01b0u tr\u1eef ch\u00ednh th\u1ed1ng n\u00ean \u00e1p l\u1ef1c d\u01b0 th\u1eeba v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n tri\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ec3. Vi\u1ec7c ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n ra m\u00e2u thu\u1eabn s\u00e2u s\u1eafc n\u00e0y ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c c\u00e1c chi ti\u1ebft th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a Wmax.<\/p>\n

<\/a>C\u1ea5u tr\u00fac th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng: d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai v\u1ec1 m\u00e2u thu\u1eabn c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u v\u00e0 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng s\u1ed1c<\/strong><\/p>\n

Wmax \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u00e2u thu\u1eabn c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i trong th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7u hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i th\u00f4ng qua x\u00e1c minh \u0111a chi\u1ec1u v\u1ec1 t\u1ed3n kho d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t l\u1ecdc d\u1ea7u v\u00e0 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t: th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 b\u1ecb d\u01b0 cung, nh\u01b0ng c\u00e1c x\u00e1o tr\u1ed9n do l\u1ec7nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t, kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng l\u1ecdc d\u1ea7u ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd v\u00e0 c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c t\u1ea1o th\u00e0nh \"s\u1ef1 d\u00ednh v\u00e0o gi\u00e1\", khi\u1ebfn hi\u1ec7u su\u1ea5t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111i ch\u1ec7ch kh\u1ecfi logic c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng. IEA ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng \"v\u00f2ng tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t m\u1edbi c\u1ee7a EU \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u c\u00f3 ngu\u1ed3n g\u1ed1c t\u1eeb d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 c\u1ee7a Nga, c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t l\u1ecdc d\u1ea7u nh\u00e0n r\u1ed7i h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m ph\u00e1t sinh c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng song song l\u00e0 'd\u1ea7u th\u00f4 d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o v\u00e0 ngu\u1ed3n cung s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m d\u1ea7u tinh ch\u1ebf khan hi\u1ebfm'\", \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y r\u1ea5t nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n v\u1edbi nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a Wmax. \u0110\u00e2y c\u0169ng l\u00e0 nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n ch\u00ednh khi\u1ebfn d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 Brent v\u1eabn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec \u1edf m\u1ee9c 60-70 USD\/th\u00f9ng b\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng d\u01b0 th\u1eeba.<\/p>\n

V\u1ec1 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, Wmax \u0111\u00e3 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c b\u00e1o c\u00e1o c\u1ee7a hai t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c l\u1edbn v\u00e0 c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n v\u1ec1 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ng\u00e0nh c\u1ee7a ri\u00eang h\u1ecd v\u00e0 tin r\u1eb1ng m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00e1c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 v\u1ec1 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111i l\u00e0 kh\u00e1c nhau nh\u01b0ng \"nh\u1eefng c\u00fa s\u1ed1c ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng\" l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn t\u1ea5t y\u1ebfu. OPEC hy v\u1ecdng s\u1ebd m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ec3 h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u00e0 \"c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng v\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng\" v\u00e0 c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft h\u00e0ng t\u1ed3n kho d\u01b0 th\u1eeba th\u00f4ng qua vi\u1ec7c thu h\u1eb9p ngu\u1ed3n cung; trong khi Wmax d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean t\u00ednh to\u00e1n c\u1ee7a m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng cung c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng \u00fd v\u1edbi nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a IEA - ngay c\u1ea3 khi OPEC+ h\u1ee7y b\u1ecf ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch t\u0103ng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u0103m 2025, n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y v\u1eabn s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng d\u01b0 cung 950.000 th\u00f9ng m\u1ed7i ng\u00e0y. N\u1ebfu vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u1ed1i l\u1ea1i v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 4 nh\u01b0 k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch ban \u0111\u1ea7u, m\u1ee9c d\u01b0 th\u1eeba s\u1ebd t\u0103ng l\u00ean 1,4 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng m\u1ed7i ng\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

\"\u5c40\u90e8\u622a\u53d6_20251212_142333\"<\/p>\n

D\u1ef1a tr\u00ean kinh nghi\u1ec7m d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 theo d\u00f5i ng\u00e0nh d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n, Wmax \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ec9 ra r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng r\u1eb1ng h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111i trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf s\u1ebd ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o ba bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i: Th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t, m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a OPEC+ v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Libya, Nigeria v\u00e0 c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 can thi\u1ec7p ch\u00ednh; th\u1ee9 hai l\u00e0 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i OPEC+. M\u1ee5c ti\u00eau s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t 13,52 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng\/ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2025 s\u1ebd \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng ngu\u1ed3n cung; th\u1ee9 ba l\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb. C\u00e1c s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n thi\u00ean nga \u0111en nh\u01b0 s\u1ef1 leo thang c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Nga v\u00e0 Iran c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1ec1 t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 s\u1ef1 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng hi\u1ec7n c\u00f3.<\/p>\n

<\/a>K\u1ebft lu\u1eadn: Nh\u1eefng hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft s\u00e2u s\u1eafc v\u1ec1 t\u00e1i c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng cung v\u00e0 c\u1ea7u trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng<\/strong><\/p>\n

S\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c b\u00e1o c\u00e1o c\u1ee7a IEA v\u00e0 OPEC v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh t\u1eadp trung l\u1ee3i \u00edch c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng trong qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. S\u1ef1 l\u1ea1c quan t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a OPEC v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn an ninh thu nh\u1eadp ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t d\u1ea7u m\u00e0 c\u00f2n h\u00e0m \u00fd ni\u1ec1m tin v\u00e0o nhu c\u1ea7u d\u1ea7u d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n - logic n\u00e0y l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch tinh t\u1ebf d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n \"nhu c\u1ea7u d\u1ea7u ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng cho \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2050\" trong \"Tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng N\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi\" c\u1ee7a IEA; trong khi c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o th\u1eb7ng d\u01b0 c\u1ee7a IEA quan t\u00e2m nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng gi\u1eefa an ninh n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng. Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh c\u00e1c trung t\u00e2m d\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u00e0 tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111i\u1ec7n v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua, Wmax d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft s\u00e2u s\u1eafc v\u1ec1 to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 chu\u1ed7i c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111a chi\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u r\u00f5 r\u1eb1ng tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i cung c\u1ea7u tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n l\u00e0 m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n gi\u1eefa kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 m\u00e0 l\u00e0 cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ea5u tranh ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p gi\u1eefa n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng v\u00e0 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1edbi, c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t d\u1ea7u v\u00e0 qu\u1ed1c gia ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng, l\u1ee3i \u00edch ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Wmax \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chuy\u00ean s\u00e2u c\u00e1c b\u00e1o c\u00e1o h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng c\u1ee7a IEA v\u00e0 OPEC, cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t trong d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o nhu c\u1ea7u, nh\u1eefng kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n trong vi\u1ec7c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a OPEC+ v\u00e0 t\u1ed3n kho to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t trong 4 n\u0103m. Ngu\u1ed3n cung d\u01b0 th\u1eeba l\u00e0 3,81 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng\/ng\u00e0y, cao th\u1ee9 hai trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed. C\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t v\u00e0 c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng tinh ch\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t mang t\u00ednh c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac. Gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c dao \u0111\u1ed9ng trong kho\u1ea3ng t\u1eeb 60 USD \u0111\u1ebfn 70 USD.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7940,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[121],"tags":[308,307,169],"class_list":["post-7939","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-financial-news","tag-iea","tag-opec-2","tag-169"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7939","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7939"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7939\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7944,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7939\/revisions\/7944"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7940"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7939"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7939"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7939"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}