{"id":8312,"date":"2026-01-07T09:21:30","date_gmt":"2026-01-07T01:21:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/?p=8312"},"modified":"2026-01-07T09:21:36","modified_gmt":"2026-01-07T01:21:36","slug":"wmax%e5%ae%8f%e8%a7%82%e7%bb%8f%e6%b5%8e%e8%a7%82%e5%af%9f%ef%bc%9a%e6%94%bf%e7%ad%96%e6%ad%a3%e5%b8%b8%e5%8c%96%e5%88%9d%e6%9c%9f%e7%9a%84%e4%bf%a1%e5%8f%b7%e9%87%8d%e6%9e%84","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/luu-tru\/8312","title":{"rendered":"Wmax Quan s\u00e1t kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4: T\u00e1i thi\u1ebft t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00f3a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>B\u01b0\u1edbc sang n\u0103m 2026, c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng l\u1edbn tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111ang b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a chu k\u1ef3 h\u1eadu th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t. C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang, Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Anh li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u00ecnh ch\u1ec9 vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong qu\u00fd 4 n\u0103m 2025, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m c\u1ee7a l\u1eddi h\u00f9ng bi\u1ec7n trong c\u00e1c tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd: t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh \"\u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau\" sang t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o \"r\u1ee7i ro \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh\" v\u00e0 \"t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ee5t h\u1eadu c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c\". Wmax Quan s\u00e1t kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ec9 ra: S\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m c\u1ee7a ng\u00f4n ng\u1eef n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t b\u01b0\u1edbc chuy\u1ec3n h\u01b0\u1edbng \u00f4n h\u00f2a \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n m\u00e0 l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh l\u1ea1i tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 r\u1ee7i ro trong khu\u00f4n kh\u1ed5 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 v\u00e0 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh trong c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n<p>Thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac t\u1eeb kh\u00f3a giao ti\u1ebfp<\/p>\n<p>So s\u00e1nh b\u00e1o c\u00e1o c\u1ee7a FOMC trong qu\u00fd 4 n\u0103m 2024 v\u00e0 2025 cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cTh\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t h\u01a1n n\u1eefa c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p\u201d (l\u1eddi n\u00f3i th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean x\u1ea3y ra v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2024) \u0111\u00e3 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n bi\u1ebfn m\u1ea5t; \u201cL\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf c\u1ea7n duy tr\u00ec trong bao l\u00e2u s\u1ebd t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o d\u1eef li\u1ec7u\u201d \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thay th\u1ebf b\u1eb1ng \u201cVi\u1ec7c truy\u1ec1n t\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed9 tr\u1ec5 c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t t\u00edch l\u0169y c\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 c\u1ea9n th\u1eadn\u201d; l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean, m\u1ed9t l\u01b0u \u00fd \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t v\u1ec1 \"T\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng cung c\u1ea5p t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng cho c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p v\u1eeba v\u00e0 nh\u1ecf\" \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00eam v\u00e0o SEP (T\u00f3m t\u1eaft c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o kinh t\u1ebf).<\/p>\n<p>ECB c\u0169ng n\u00f3i r\u00f5 trong bi\u00ean b\u1ea3n cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp th\u00e1ng 12 n\u0103m 2025: \u201cL\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e3 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o ph\u1ea1m vi h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh ti\u1ebfp theo s\u1ebd t\u1eadp trung nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c tr\u00e1nh s\u1ef1 thu h\u1eb9p qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ef1c\u201d. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 nh\u1eefng tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng cam k\u1ebft c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t nh\u01b0ng ch\u00fang \u0111\u00e3 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng kh\u00eda c\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u1eeb kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t duy nh\u1ea5t sang v\u00f2ng ph\u1ea3n h\u1ed3i c\u1ee7a t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh.<\/p>\n<p>L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh: c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t k\u00e9p tr\u1edf n\u00ean r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng<\/p>\n<p>Trong hai n\u0103m qua, ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t. Tuy nhi\u00ean, b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1eeb n\u1eeda cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2025, nhi\u1ec1u ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u ph\u00e2n bi\u1ec7t gi\u1eefa \u201cm\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch\u201d v\u00e0 \u201c\u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf\u201d. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang \u0111\u00e3 l\u01b0u \u00fd trong B\u00e1o c\u00e1o \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh th\u00e1ng 11 n\u0103m 2025: \"M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t qu\u1ef9 li\u00ean bang \u1edf m\u1ee9c 5,25% -5,5%, vi\u1ec7c thu h\u1eb9p ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu doanh nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng h\u01a1n kho\u1ea3ng 30 \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n so v\u1edbi n\u0103m 2024.\"<\/p>\n<p>\u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 ngay c\u1ea3 khi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch kh\u00f4ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i, n\u1ebfu th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng (nh\u01b0 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n r\u1ee7i ro t\u0103ng v\u00e0 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng thu h\u1eb9p), ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u00ec ho\u00e3n c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh t\u00edch t\u1ee5 m\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh. M\u1eb7t kh\u00e1c, n\u1ebfu \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh \u0111\u1ed9t ng\u1ed9t th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t do c\u00e1c c\u00fa s\u1ed1c b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i (ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 v\u1ee1 n\u1ee3 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i t\u0103ng), vi\u1ec7c n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t ngay c\u1ea3 khi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u1eabn cao h\u01a1n m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau m\u1ed9t ch\u00fat. Ch\u1ee9c n\u0103ng ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n t\u1eeb \u201cm\u1ee5c ti\u00eau l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u01a1n l\u1ebb\u201d sang \u201cc\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng \u0111a chi\u1ec1u\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bng\u1ee5 \u00fd v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/p>\n<p>S\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh trong th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e1i sinh. T\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea7u th\u00e1ng 1 n\u0103m 2026:<\/p>\n<p>\u0110\u01b0\u1eddng cong OIS (ho\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 qua \u0111\u00eam) c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 cho th\u1ea5y th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ee3t c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2026 s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ho\u00e3n l\u1ea1i t\u1eeb \"th\u00e1ng 6\" \u0111\u1ebfn \"th\u00e1ng 9\" v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 9 n\u0103m 2025; nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t gi\u1eefa tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu M\u1ef9 k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 2 n\u0103m v\u00e0 10 n\u0103m \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thu h\u1eb9p, ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh m\u1ed1i lo ng\u1ea1i ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng v\u1ec1 \u201cs\u1ef1 suy gi\u1ea3m t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n\u201d; Ph\u00ed b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m CDS (ho\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed5i n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u) c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Eurozone \u0111\u00e3 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng, tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t \"ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 d\u1ec5 b\u1ecb t\u1ed5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh\" m\u1edbi khi\u1ebfn Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u lo ng\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n<p>Nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111ang chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i duy nh\u1ea5t \u201ckhi n\u00e0o c\u1eaft l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t\u201d sang \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 \u0111a chi\u1ec1u \u201c\u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t\u201d - li\u1ec7u l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau? Ho\u1eb7c ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb vi ph\u1ea1m?<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1266\" height=\"841\" class=\"wp-image-8314\" src=\"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/analysing.jpeg\" alt=\"analysing\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/analysing.jpeg 1266w, https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/analysing-300x199.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/analysing-1024x680.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/analysing-768x510.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/analysing-18x12.jpeg 18w, https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/analysing-900x598.jpeg 900w, https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/analysing-600x399.jpeg 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1266px) 100vw, 1266px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf lan t\u1ecfa t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i<\/p>\n<p>\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ngo\u00e0i Hoa K\u1ef3, con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng lan t\u1ecfa c\u1ee7a v\u00f2ng b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00f3a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u00e0y c\u0169ng \u0111ang thay \u0111\u1ed5i. Trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9, h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a Fed chi ph\u1ed1i d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n; gi\u1edd \u0111\u00e2y, l\u1ed7 h\u1ed5ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 nh\u01b0 b\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ec7m ho\u1eb7c b\u1ed9 khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, trong qu\u00fd 4 n\u0103m 2025, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00f4 la M\u1ef9 suy y\u1ebfu, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i c\u00f3 n\u1ee3 n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i cao (nh\u01b0 Th\u1ed5 Nh\u0129 K\u1ef3 v\u00e0 Argentina) v\u1eabn ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c b\u00e1n tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu b\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ed3ng n\u1ed9i t\u1ec7 do s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c c\u1ee7a h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trong n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n b\u1eb1ng \u0111\u00f4 la M\u1ef9 ch\u01b0a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00e1o c\u00e1o th\u00e1ng 12 n\u0103m 2025 c\u1ee7a Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Thanh to\u00e1n Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf (BIS) cho bi\u1ebft: \"S\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111ang chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb b\u1ecb th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y b\u1edfi 'ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t' sang do 's\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe c\u1ee7a b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ebf to\u00e1n'\". \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n xuy\u00ean bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi s\u1ebd nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m h\u01a1n v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 vi m\u00f4 nh\u01b0 T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o thanh kho\u1ea3n (LCR) v\u00e0 T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u00f2ng (NSFR) c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c nhau.<\/p>\n<p>C\u00e1c t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u c\u01a1 h\u1ecdc m\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00f9ng n\u00ean ch\u00fa \u00fd<\/p>\n<p>Trong m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00e0y, ch\u00eca kh\u00f3a \u0111\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c v\u0129 \u200b\u200bm\u00f4 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n l\u00e0 theo d\u00f5i \u201cnh\u1eefng tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u v\u00e0 b\u1ed3 c\u00e2u\u201d c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t quan ch\u1ee9c n\u1eefa m\u00e0 l\u00e0 gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t ba lo\u1ea1i t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf:<\/p>\n<p>C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 r\u1ee7i ro m\u1edbi trong b\u00e1o c\u00e1o \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng (nh\u01b0 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 qu\u00e1 h\u1ea1n cho vay b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y c\u1ee7a t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c phi ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng); s\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 tr\u1ecdng s\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a \u201cl\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf\u201d v\u00e0 \u201ct\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ee5t h\u1eadu\u201d trong c\u00e1c tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch; m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 sai l\u1ec7ch gi\u1eefa \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cong OIS v\u00e0 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng - n\u1ebfu c\u00e1i tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 l\u1ecfng l\u1ebbo v\u00e0 c\u00e1i sau ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t, \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 cho th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m can thi\u1ec7p ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111ang \u0111\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n.<\/p>\n<p>Wmax nh\u1eafc nh\u1edf: \u1ede giai \u0111o\u1ea1n hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 \"chuy\u1ec3n h\u01b0\u1edbng\" m\u00e0 l\u00e0 \"x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng l\u1ea1i khung \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1\". Ngu\u1ed3n g\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 \u0111ang chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb nh\u1eefng b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd v\u1ec1 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t sang nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i nh\u1ecf trong c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 d\u1ec5 b\u1ecb t\u1ed5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh.<\/p>\n<p>K\u1ebft lu\u1eadn: X\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m neo th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn<\/p>\n<p>M\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u0129 m\u00f4 v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2026 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t hay kh\u1edfi \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ea1i vi\u1ec7c n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng, m\u00e0 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t giai \u0111o\u1ea1n chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp trong \u0111\u00f3 logic ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh l\u1ea1i. Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111ang c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm s\u1ef1 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng m\u1edbi gi\u1eefa \u201ckh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t\u201d v\u00e0 \u201cm\u1ea5t c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh\u201d, v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong ng\u00f4n ng\u1eef giao ti\u1ebfp c\u1ee7a ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng n\u00e0y l\u00e0 bi\u1ec3u hi\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e1nh \u0111\u1ed5i n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9 n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n<p>\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00f9ng, l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng n\u1eb1m \u1edf vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0o quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ti\u1ebfp theo m\u00e0 \u1edf vi\u1ec7c th\u1ea5y r\u00f5 lo\u1ea1i m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 r\u1ee7i ro \u0111a chi\u1ec1u n\u00e0o \u1ea9n ch\u1ee9a trong m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i. Ch\u1ec9 b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch n\u00e0y, ch\u00fang ta m\u1edbi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u00e1n \u0111o\u00e1n th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf s\u00e1ng su\u1ed1t trong nh\u1eefng giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ea7u ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p c\u1ee7a qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00f3a ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chuy\u00ean s\u00e2u v\u1ec1 qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh t\u00e1i c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng khung ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2026. Th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 c\u00e1ch C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang, Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Anh chuy\u1ec3n tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m t\u1eeb m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t duy nh\u1ea5t sang r\u1ee7i ro \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng tr\u1ec5 c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t. Wmax Quan s\u00e1t v\u0129 m\u00f4 gi\u00fap b\u1ea1n x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t k\u00e9p v\u1ec1 \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch trong ch\u1ee9c n\u0103ng ph\u1ea3n h\u1ed3i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch, ph\u00e2n t\u00edch nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i s\u00e2u s\u1eafc trong d\u00f2ng v\u1ed1n xuy\u00ean bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi v\u00e0 c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2026, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi n\u1eafm b\u1eaft c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m neo th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c hi\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9nh l\u1ea1i logic ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8313,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[121],"tags":[410,444,445],"class_list":["post-8312","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-financial-news","tag-410","tag-444","tag-445"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8312","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8312"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8312\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8315,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8312\/revisions\/8315"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8313"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8312"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8312"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8312"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}