{"id":8763,"date":"2026-02-04T16:27:51","date_gmt":"2026-02-04T08:27:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/?p=8763"},"modified":"2026-02-04T16:27:58","modified_gmt":"2026-02-04T08:27:58","slug":"%e5%8e%9f%e6%b2%b9%e5%b8%82%e5%9c%ba%e5%8f%8c%e9%87%8d%e5%8d%9a%e5%bc%88%e5%8a%a0%e5%89%a7-%e4%bf%84%e7%bd%97%e6%96%af%e8%83%bd%e6%ba%90%e8%b4%a2%e6%94%bf%e6%89%bf%e5%8e%8b%e4%b8%8ect","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/luu-tru\/8763","title":{"rendered":"Tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i k\u00e9p tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng gay g\u1eaft\u2014\u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a Nga c\u1ed9ng h\u01b0\u1edfng v\u1edbi t\u00ecnh th\u1ebf ti\u1ebfn tho\u00e1i l\u01b0\u1ee1ng nan v\u1ec1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch CTA"},"content":{"rendered":"

D\u1ef1a tr\u00ean theo d\u00f5i chuy\u00ean s\u00e2u v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u cung c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng truy\u1ec1n tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t v\u00e0 logic giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, Wmax tin r\u1eb1ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111ang trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn \u0111an xen v\u1edbi hai m\u00e2u thu\u1eabn c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i: M\u1ed9t m\u1eb7t, s\u1ef1 leo thang c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Nga v\u00e0 d\u1ea7u to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u Gi\u00e1 y\u1ebfu \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn doanh thu n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a Nga gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh, \u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 \u0111i\u1ec3m t\u1edbi h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u \u0111\u00e3 bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh s\u00e2u s\u1eafc; m\u1eb7t kh\u00e1c, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n (CTA) \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ecbu chu k\u1ef3 thua l\u1ed7 li\u00ean t\u1ee5c d\u00e0i nh\u1ea5t trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed. Nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2026 s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t th\u1eed th\u00e1ch nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb li\u00ean t\u1ee5c, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t h\u00f3a chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e0ng tr\u1edf n\u00ean n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n

<\/a>V\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 nan gi\u1ea3i v\u1ec1 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a Nga: \u00c1p l\u1ef1c k\u00e9p t\u1eeb c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t v\u00e0 chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u<\/strong><\/p>\n

Wmax, d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean ph\u00e2n t\u00edch truy xu\u1ea5t ngu\u1ed3n g\u1ed1c d\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u00f3 th\u1ea9m quy\u1ec1n nh\u01b0 Argus Media v\u00e0 Kpler, x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng doanh thu n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a Nga v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2025 s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh kho\u1ea3ng 1\/5 so v\u1edbi n\u0103m 2024. \u0110\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i l\u00e0 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ed9ng h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 do l\u1ec7nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t leo thang v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u suy y\u1ebfu. Sau khi Hoa K\u1ef3 b\u1ed5 sung Rosneft v\u00e0 Lukoil v\u00e0o danh s\u00e1ch tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t, r\u1ee7i ro giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi mua ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng \u1edf n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp khi\u1ebfn ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u00e1 gi\u1eefa d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 Urals ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a Nga v\u00e0 d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 Brent gi\u1ea3m t\u1eeb 10% m\u1ed7i n\u0103m trong hai n\u0103m qua. M\u1ed9t th\u00f9ng c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 x\u1ea5p x\u1ec9 15 USD t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i l\u00ean h\u01a1n 24 USD. V\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 12 n\u0103m 2025, gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 Urals gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng 39,2 USD\/th\u00f9ng, m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb d\u1ecbch Covid-19. Gi\u00e1 FOB c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 lo\u1ea1i d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 xu\u1ea5t sang \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f2n th\u1ea5p t\u1edbi 22-25 USD, h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ee7 b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp chi ph\u00ed s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n

\"\u5c40\u90e8\u622a\u53d6_20260204_144729\"<\/p>\n

Doanh thu n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0 chi ti\u00eau qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e3 h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh xung \u0111\u1ed9t gay g\u1eaft, \u0111\u1ea9y t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh tr\u00ean GDP c\u1ee7a Nga n\u0103m 2025 t\u0103ng l\u00ean 2,6%, g\u1ea5p 5 l\u1ea7n k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch, \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c cao k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i v\u00e0 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u chu k\u1ef3 th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t 4 n\u0103m li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp d\u00e0i nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb khi Putin nh\u1eadm ch\u1ee9c. Wmax \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n th\u00f4ng qua t\u00ednh to\u00e1n \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng r\u1eb1ng nhi\u1ec1u y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u00e0ng l\u00e0m t\u0103ng th\u00eam \u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh:<\/p>\n

Th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t, t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng r\u00fap cao h\u01a1n 17% so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c 92 r\u00fap \u0111\u1ed5i m\u1ed9t \u0111\u00f4 la M\u1ef9 do ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 quy \u0111\u1ecbnh, tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m quy m\u00f4 t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng r\u00fap c\u1ee7a doanh thu xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u; th\u1ee9 hai, \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng l\u00ean \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. D\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Alfa cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ed7i khi gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 Ural trung b\u00ecnh l\u1ec7ch kh\u1ecfi d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch 10 \u0111\u00f4 la M\u1ef9, doanh thu t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m 1,5-1,8 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 r\u00fap. N\u1ebfu gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u th\u1ea5p v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng r\u00fap di chuy\u1ec3n. Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd v\u1eabn ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c v\u00e0 kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00ean t\u1edbi 3 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 r\u00fap v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2026, chi\u1ebfm 7,5% doanh thu t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200b\u200b\u200bcho n\u0103m \u0111\u00f3. Th\u1ee9 ba, t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng doanh thu n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng trong ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m t\u1eeb h\u01a1n 50% th\u1eddi ho\u00e0ng kim xu\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n kho\u1ea3ng 24%, l\u1eadp m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p m\u1edbi trong \u00edt nh\u1ea5t 10 n\u0103m. \u0110i\u1ec7n Kremlin bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u0103ng thu\u1ebf su\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb gia t\u0103ng v\u00e0 t\u0103ng thu\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p nh\u1ecf v\u00e0 si\u00eau nh\u1ecf.<\/p>\n

\"IMG_256\"<\/p>\n

Vi\u1ec7c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn b\u1ea5t l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a Nga trong vi\u1ec7c duy tr\u00ec xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u d\u1ea7u. Wmax \u0111\u00e3 theo d\u00f5i d\u1eef li\u1ec7u t\u1eeb CREA v\u00e0 Kpler v\u00e0 nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y r\u1eb1ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 b\u1eb1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng bi\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a Nga sang Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng 23% so v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 12 n\u0103m 2025, trong khi xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u sang \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 gi\u1ea3m 29% so v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc. V\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 1 n\u0103m 2026, t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng d\u1ea7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi mua kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9 \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3, quy m\u00f4 kho n\u1ed5i tr\u00ean bi\u1ec3n t\u0103ng l\u00ean v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1edbn t\u00e0u ch\u1edf d\u1ea7u v\u1eabn \u1edf b\u1edd bi\u1ec3n ph\u00eda t\u00e2y \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 ho\u1eb7c v\u00f9ng bi\u1ec3n g\u1ea7n Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm ng\u01b0\u1eddi mua cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng. \u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u00e0u ch\u1edf d\u1ea7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m trung chuy\u1ec3n nh\u01b0 Ai C\u1eadp v\u00e0 Singapore \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh, ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng v\u00e0o c\u00e1c \"k\u00eanh \u1ea9n\" \u0111\u1ec3 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u d\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a Nga d\u01b0\u1edbi \u00e1p l\u1ef1c tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t. Nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a David Martirosyan, nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u1ea1i Trung t\u00e2m \u0111i\u1ec3m chu\u1ea9n gi\u00e1 Moscow, nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n v\u1edbi Wmax, t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi tham gia th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec th\u1ecb ph\u1ea7n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u00e1. Kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 b\u1eb1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng bi\u1ec3n h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a Nga d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bs\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n 410 t\u1ea5n v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 1, v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m l\u00ean t\u1edbi 11% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i.<\/p>\n

<\/a>T\u00ecnh th\u1ebf ti\u1ebfn tho\u00e1i l\u01b0\u1ee1ng nan v\u1ec1 l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch CTA: th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c k\u00e9p gi\u1eefa bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ecba l\u00fd v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t h\u00f3a chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/strong><\/p>\n

Wmax D\u1ef1a tr\u00ean d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a Kpler t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2000, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n (CTA) \u0111\u00e3 ghi nh\u1eadn kho\u1ea3n l\u1ed7 n\u0103m th\u1ee9 ba li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp, thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp chu k\u1ef3 thua l\u1ed7 d\u00e0i nh\u1ea5t trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed. V\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i n\u1eb1m \u1edf vi\u1ec7c thi\u1ebfu t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng do nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch. N\u0103m 2025, nhi\u1ec1u y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 nh\u01b0 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i th\u1ea5t th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Trump, xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng v\u00e0 t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh gi\u1eefa Nga v\u00e0 Ukraine \u0111\u00e3 g\u00e2y ra c\u00fa s\u1ed1c gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u. L\u00e0 m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 kinh doanh theo xu h\u01b0\u1edbng, CTA g\u1eb7p kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n trong vi\u1ec7c n\u1eafm b\u1eaft xu h\u01b0\u1edbng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng v\u00e0 ch\u1ecbu l\u1ed7 su\u1ed1t c\u1ea3 n\u0103m ngo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb qu\u00fd 4. Keller Capital m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng trong th\u01b0 g\u1eedi nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 l\u00e0 \"ph\u1ea1m vi s\u1ed1c h\u1eb9p, nhi\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ed9t ph\u00e1 sai l\u1ea7m v\u00e0 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u ng\u1eafn\", tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng.<\/p>\n

\"IMG_256\"<\/p>\n

V\u00e0o n\u0103m 2026, hy v\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a CTA s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi th\u1eed th\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean. Wmax theo d\u00f5i r\u1eb1ng v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng d\u01b0 cung d\u1ea7u th\u00f4. CTA t\u1eebng \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trong m\u1ed9t qu\u00fd v\u00e0 t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng tri\u1ec3n khai c\u00e1c h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng g\u1ea7n th\u00e1ng v\u1ec1 d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 WTI, \u0111\u1ea9y t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng giao d\u1ecbch trung b\u00ecnh h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y l\u00ean 35% t\u1eeb 15%-25% v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2025. Tuy nhi\u00ean, k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m, tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e3 nhi\u1ec1u l\u1ea7n chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u1eefa ngu\u1ed3n cung to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i nh\u01b0 c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng gi\u1eefa Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u00e0 Iran, gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n \u1edf Bi\u1ec3n \u0110en v\u00e0 b\u00e3o m\u00f9a \u0111\u00f4ng \u1edf Hoa K\u1ef3. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3, gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 WTI trong th\u00e1ng 1 \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean t\u0103ng g\u1ea7n 7% sau \u0111\u00f3 gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh. Thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a CTA h\u01a1i \u00e2m v\u00e0 \"th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh\" do bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb g\u00e2y ra ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c gia t\u0103ng.<\/p>\n

B\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p \u00e1p l\u1ef1c chung, Wmax v\u1eabn n\u1eafm b\u1eaft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt v\u1ec1 c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn v\u00e0 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c: Th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t, h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng c\u1ee7a d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 Brent ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 WTI, v\u00ec d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 WTI ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng h\u01a1n c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a d\u1ea7u th\u00f4, trong khi d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 WTI d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng li\u00ean k\u1ebft v\u1edbi c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n l\u1edbn nh\u01b0 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n v\u00e0 kim lo\u1ea1i, khi\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c n\u1eafm b\u1eaft xu h\u01b0\u1edbng tr\u1edf n\u00ean kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n h\u01a1n; th\u1ee9 hai, giao d\u1ecbch ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u tinh ch\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn, v\u00e0 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u diesel t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c th\u00e1ng \u0111\u00e3 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ee7a CTA trong h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng n\u00e0y t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng 56%. Quy m\u00f4 v\u1ecb th\u1ebf giao d\u1ecbch theo thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n c\u1ee7a t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c CFD d\u1ea7u tinh ch\u1ebf d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bs\u1ebd t\u0103ng m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n t\u01b0, nh\u01b0ng ch\u00fang ta c\u1ea7n c\u1ea3nh gi\u00e1c v\u1edbi nguy c\u01a1 c\u00fa s\u1ed1c thanh l\u00fd do \"giao d\u1ecbch quy m\u00f4 nh\u1ecf v\u00e0 t\u1eadp trung\" c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7u tinh ch\u1ebf g\u00e2y ra; th\u1ee9 ba, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 CTA t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 Keller Capital c\u00f3 k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch kh\u1edfi \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ed9t d\u1ef1 \u00e1n giao d\u1ecbch kim lo\u1ea1i c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng v\u00e0 n\u1eafm b\u1eaft c\u00e1c c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a phi n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u00f4ng qua danh m\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111a d\u1ea1ng. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n v\u1edbi logic \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u1ee7a Wmax v\u1ec1 \"s\u1eeda ch\u1eefa chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0 t\u1ed1i \u01b0u h\u00f3a m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh r\u1ee7i ro trong chu k\u1ef3 suy tho\u00e1i\".<\/p>\n

\"IMG_256\"<\/p>\n

<\/a>WmaxK\u1ebft lu\u1eadn c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i<\/strong><\/p>\n

B\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i k\u00e9p tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 hi\u1ec7n nay l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u0111an xen s\u00e2u s\u1eafc gi\u1eefa \u201cc\u00e1c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n (c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t, cung v\u00e0 c\u1ea7u)\u201d v\u00e0 \u201ch\u00e0nh vi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng (giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, \u01b0u ti\u00ean r\u1ee7i ro)\u201d. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Nga, \"t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng si\u1ebft ch\u1eb7t t\u00edch l\u0169y ch\u1eadm\" c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t \u0111\u00e3 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n, l\u00e0m t\u1ed5n h\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i kinh t\u1ebf l\u00e2u d\u00e0i. Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng ti\u1ebfp theo ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u, t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 gia t\u0103ng c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c k\u00eanh xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u; \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch CTA, ch\u00eca kh\u00f3a \u0111\u1ec3 bi\u1ebft li\u1ec7u l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2026 hay kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0 li\u1ec7u m\u1ed9t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh hay kh\u00f4ng. Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u1ec1 cung v\u00e0 c\u1ea7u s\u1ebd tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ea7n t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o ba n\u00fat ch\u00ednh: th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t, s\u1ef1 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u1eefa chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 c\u1ee7a Nga v\u00e0 kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u; th\u1ee9 hai, t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh l\u1ea1i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang v\u00e0 xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u; v\u00e0 th\u1ee9 ba, t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac v\u1ecb tr\u00ed CTA \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Wmax s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c theo d\u00f5i d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady v\u00e0 c\u00e1c bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi cung c\u1ea5p cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u00e0i li\u1ec7u tham kh\u1ea3o ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh kh\u00e1ch quan v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady nh\u1edd kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi chu\u1ed7i ng\u00e0nh th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7u th\u00f4, chu\u1ed7i truy\u1ec1n t\u1ea3i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch v\u00e0 chu\u1ed7i logic giao d\u1ecbch.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Vi\u1ec7c M\u1ef9 leo thang c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i Nga \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn doanh thu t\u1eeb n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh 1\/5. Gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 Urals gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 \u0111\u00e3 l\u00ean m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c 24 USD\/th\u00f9ng v\u00e0 th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a Nga t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch thu\u1eadt to\u00e1n CTA ch\u1ecbu l\u1ed7 k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c trong n\u0103m th\u1ee9 ba li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ea3o chi\u1ec1u v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2026 s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi th\u1eed th\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb. C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ea7n ch\u00fa \u00fd \u0111\u1ebfn ba \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u c\u1ee7a Nga, ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang v\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh v\u1ecb th\u1ebf CTA.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8768,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[121],"tags":[591,592,167],"class_list":["post-8763","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-financial-news","tag-591","tag-592","tag-167"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8763","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8763"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8763\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8774,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8763\/revisions\/8774"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8768"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8763"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8763"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8763"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}