{"id":9035,"date":"2026-03-03T17:23:32","date_gmt":"2026-03-03T09:23:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/?p=9035"},"modified":"2026-03-03T17:31:11","modified_gmt":"2026-03-03T09:31:11","slug":"%e4%b8%ad%e4%b8%9c%e5%86%b2%e7%aa%81%e5%8d%87%e7%ba%a7%e6%88%90%e8%83%bd%e6%ba%90%e5%af%bc%e7%81%ab%e7%b4%a2-wmax-%e7%a0%94%e5%88%a4%e9%9c%8d%e5%b0%94%e6%9c%a8%e5%85%b9%e6%b5%b7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/luu-tru\/9035","title":{"rendered":"Xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng leo thang th\u00e0nh \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00f3ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng - Wmax ph\u00e2n t\u00edch t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u00e2y chuy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n\n\n

D\u1ef1a tr\u00ean nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u chuy\u00ean s\u00e2u v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba l\u00fd to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u Wmax, c\u01a1 s\u1edf d\u1eef li\u1ec7u theo d\u00f5i th\u1eddi gian th\u1ef1c v\u1ec1 v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng cung c\u1ea7u h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a, k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u ng\u00e0nh m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0 k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 3 n\u0103m 2026 t\u1eeb IEA, EIA, Goldman Sachs, Caitong Securities v\u00e0 c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c kh\u00e1c, BRAN D_0_PLACEHOLDER tin r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 leo thang g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y c\u1ee7a xung \u0111\u1ed9t qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 gi\u1eefa Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u00e0 Israel \u0111\u00e3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ebfn h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz, c\u1ed5 h\u1ecdng c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 v\u00e0 kh\u00ed t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean h\u00f3a l\u1ecfng (LNG) \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ea3i qua nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng d\u1eef d\u1ed9i v\u00e0 hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng truy\u1ec1n t\u1ea3i chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng \u0111ang nhanh ch\u00f3ng lan r\u1ed9ng sang th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd l\u00e0 m\u00f4-\u0111un c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o s\u1edbm r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba l\u00fd Wmax \u0111\u00e3 n\u1eafm b\u1eaft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eefng t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u s\u1edbm v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 leo thang c\u1ee7a t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng, d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng truy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 c\u1ed1 n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ebfn chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o s\u1edbm r\u1ee7i ro bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng cho nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi tham gia th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng; k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t nh\u00e0n r\u1ed7i m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a OPEC+ do IEA ti\u1ebft l\u1ed9, Wmax \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e1c minh th\u00eam m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a c\u00fa s\u1ed1c ph\u00eda ngu\u1ed3n cung hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i v\u00e0 t\u00ednh t\u1ea5t y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ebfp theo.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb leo thang to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n, v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i bi\u1ec3n qua eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 b\u1ebf t\u1eafc<\/strong><\/p>\n

Wmax \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 th\u00f4ng qua h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t th\u1eddi gian th\u1ef1c r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba l\u00fd to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u r\u1eb1ng nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i g\u00e2y ra t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng h\u1ed7n lo\u1ea1n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u n\u00e0y l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c l\u00ean men c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng. Sau khi cu\u1ed9c kh\u00f4ng k\u00edch c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9-Israel g\u00e2y th\u01b0\u01a1ng vong cho c\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c c\u1ea5p cao ch\u1ee7 ch\u1ed1t c\u1ee7a Iran, Iran \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng t\u00ean l\u1eeda tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a \u0111a qu\u1ed1c gia. M\u1ef9 c\u0169ng tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1. Xung \u0111\u1ed9t khu v\u1ef1c ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi nguy c\u01a1 leo thang to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng v\u00e0 t\u00e2m l\u00fd lo ng\u1ea1i r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u0111\u00e3 nhanh ch\u00f3ng lan truy\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ebfn to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng.<\/p>\n

\"\u5c40\u90e8\u622a\u53d6_20260303_152834\"<\/p>\n

L\u00e0 tuy\u1ebfn \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n kho\u1ea3ng 1\/5 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u00e0 1\/5 th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i LNG, eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz c\u00f3 l\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng trung b\u00ecnh h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y l\u00e0 19 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u l\u1ecfng. T\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Wmax t\u00edch h\u1ee3p d\u1eef li\u1ec7u th\u1eddi gian th\u1ef1c t\u1eeb H\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng nh\u1eadn d\u1ea1ng t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng (AIS) c\u1ee7a t\u00e0u v\u00e0 x\u00e1c th\u1ef1c ch\u00e9o Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 c\u1ee7a S\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch Baltic. Ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i bi\u1ec3n qua eo bi\u1ec3n hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 b\u1ecb \u0111\u00ecnh tr\u1ec7: B\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1edfi c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 nh\u01b0 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t do xung \u0111\u1ed9t leo thang v\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 t\u00e0u ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e9 tr\u00e1nh r\u1ee7i ro, l\u01b0u l\u01b0\u1ee3ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 ng\u00e0y 28\/2 gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n 4 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng\/ng\u00e0y, ch\u1ec9 b\u1eb1ng 1\/4 m\u1ee9c th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng; Vi\u1ec7c v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n LNG \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi b\u1ecb t\u1ed5n th\u1ea5t n\u1eb7ng n\u1ec1 v\u00e0 \u00edt nh\u1ea5t 13 t\u00e0u ch\u1edf LNG tr\u1ed1ng bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ecbnh tuy\u1ebfn l\u1ea1i. C\u00e1c h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng cung c\u1ea5p v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n LNG d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a Qatar t\u1edbi ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 ch\u00e2u \u00c1 cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c giao h\u00e0ng r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng. T\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng n\u00e0y r\u1ea5t ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi b\u00e1o c\u00e1o r\u1ee7i ro v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng do Lloyd's Register \u0111\u01b0a ra. Wmax c\u0169ng ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n hi\u1ec7n nay ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu l\u00e0 do th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba. N\u1ebfu t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh khu v\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c v\u01b0\u1ee3t kh\u1ecfi t\u1ea7m ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t, nguy c\u01a1 t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng v\u00e0o c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng s\u1ebd t\u0103ng l\u00ean \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 v\u00e0 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ebfn chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng s\u1ebd c\u00f2n tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n

<\/a>Ngu\u1ed3n cung d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 \u0111ang ch\u1ecbu \u00e1p l\u1ef1c v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n. Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u theo nhi\u1ec1u k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n.<\/strong><\/p>\n

S\u1ef1 \u0111\u00ecnh tr\u1ec7 v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ea9y kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng cung c\u1ea5p d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 c\u1ee7a \u1ea2 R\u1eadp Saudi, Iran, C\u00e1c Ti\u1ec3u v\u01b0\u01a1ng qu\u1ed1c \u1ea2 R\u1eadp Th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t d\u1ea7u v\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh kh\u00e1c \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n. Nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Wmax k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p IEA D\u1eef li\u1ec7u m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 3 n\u0103m 2026 (c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t nh\u00e0n r\u1ed7i hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 OPEC+ l\u00e0 kho\u1ea3ng 4,35 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng m\u1ed7i ng\u00e0y v\u00e0 t\u1eadp trung nhi\u1ec1u \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng) v\u00e0 c\u00e1c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi v\u1edbi c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 cho th\u1ea5y n\u1ebfu eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz b\u1ecb \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n, c\u00e1c kho v\u00e0 b\u1ec3 ch\u1ee9a n\u1ed5i tr\u00ean b\u1edd c\u1ee7a 7 qu\u1ed1c gia s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t d\u1ea7u l\u1edbn thu\u1ed9c OPEC+ \u1edf v\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ee9a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 22 ng\u00e0y d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 \u1ee9 \u0111\u1ecdng, k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng l\u01b0u tr\u1eef t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi c\u1ee7a t\u00e0u v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i. Th\u1eddi gian duy tr\u00ec s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t t\u1ed1i \u0111a kh\u00f4ng qu\u00e1 25 ng\u00e0y, n\u1ebfu v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 th\u1eddi h\u1ea1n s\u1ebd bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i ng\u1eebng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n; t\u1ed5ng c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n thay th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a \u0110\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng d\u1eabn d\u1ea7u \u0110\u00f4ng T\u00e2y Saudi v\u00e0 \u0110\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng d\u1eabn d\u1ea7u UAE-Abu Dhabi l\u00e0 d\u01b0\u1edbi 3 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng m\u1ed7i ng\u00e0y, ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp cho s\u1ef1 thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t ngu\u1ed3n cung do eo bi\u1ec3n b\u1ecb gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n n\u00e0y ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi b\u00e1o c\u00e1o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t do OPEC c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 v\u00e0 k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn ph\u00e2n t\u00edch n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Caitong Securities. Quan tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n, B\u1ed9 N\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Hoa K\u1ef3 g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng r\u1eb1ng h\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch gi\u1ea3i ph\u00f3ng kho d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef x\u0103ng d\u1ea7u chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00e0ng l\u00e0m tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng th\u00eam t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda ngu\u1ed3n cung.<\/p>\n

\"IMG_256\"<\/p>\n

D\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kh\u00e1c nhau c\u1ee7a xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, Wmax s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh d\u1eef li\u1ec7u \u0111a chi\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ec3 h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh ph\u00e2n t\u00edch v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u theo ba k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n ch\u00ednh, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c th\u1ef1c ch\u00e9o v\u1edbi logic suy lu\u1eadn k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs v\u00e0 c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c kh\u00e1c:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n: N\u1ebfu xung \u0111\u1ed9t khu v\u1ef1c gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n trong v\u00f2ng 1-2 tu\u1ea7n v\u00e0 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n qua eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u1ed1i l\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch c\u00f3 tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1, gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u Brent s\u1ebd duy tr\u00ec \u1edf m\u1ee9c 80-90 USD\/th\u00f9ng;<\/li>\n
  2. K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n r\u1ee7i ro trung b\u00ecnh: N\u1ebfu c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a khu v\u1ef1c b\u1ecb t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng v\u00e0 thi\u1ec7t h\u1ea1i cho chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng s\u00e2u s\u1eafc, gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u s\u1ebd t\u0103ng l\u00ean 120 USD\/th\u00f9ng. X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t x\u1ea3y ra k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n n\u00e0y l\u00e0 kho\u1ea3ng 20%;<\/li>\n
  3. K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed9: N\u1ebfu s\u1ef1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz k\u00e9o d\u00e0i h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t v\u00e0i tu\u1ea7n v\u00e0 kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch ngu\u1ed3n cung ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c gia t\u0103ng, gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 100 USD\/th\u00f9ng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p t\u0103ng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a OPEC+ s\u1ebd c\u00f3 t\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec7m ph\u00f2ng ng\u1eeba r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Wmax \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n v\u00e0 x\u00e1c minh th\u00eam r\u1eb1ng gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e3 bao g\u1ed3m ph\u00ed b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba l\u00fd kho\u1ea3ng 18 USD\/th\u00f9ng, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi quy m\u00f4 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00ecnh ch\u1ec9 to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 giao th\u00f4ng qua eo bi\u1ec3n trong 6 tu\u1ea7n v\u00e0 k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a nh\u00f3m h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a c\u1ee7a JP Morgan. \u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, ch\u00fang ta c\u1ea7n c\u1ea3nh gi\u00e1c v\u1edbi nguy c\u01a1 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng chu\u1ed7i trong c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m l\u1ecdc d\u1ea7u. Kho\u1ea3ng 9% l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ea7u diesel v\u00e0 18% ngu\u1ed3n cung c\u1ea5p nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u m\u00e1y bay tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n qua eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 s\u1ebd li\u00ean quan ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd \u0111\u1ebfn d\u1ea7u th\u00f4. C\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o n\u00e0y ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi b\u00e1o c\u00e1o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c IEA c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y. K\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a EIA cho n\u0103m 2026, do c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 nh\u01b0 c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ee7 \u1edf c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng b\u1ed5 sung gi\u00e0n khoan t\u1ed3n kho h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf, t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 s\u1ebd c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111i ngang. Ngay c\u1ea3 khi d\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e1 phi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng t\u0103ng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, s\u1ebd kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1ed5 sung ngay l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cung thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t do xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb g\u00e2y ra. Quan \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0y r\u1ea5t nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Caitong Securities, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00e0ng kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a Wmax r\u1eb1ng trung t\u00e2m gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd.<\/p>\n

    <\/a>Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng LNG tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh khu v\u1ef1c b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng n\u1eb7ng n\u1ec1 nh\u1ea5t, gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 ch\u00e2u \u00c1 c\u00f3 nguy c\u01a1 t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt.<\/strong><\/p>\n

    Wmax \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 th\u00f4ng qua h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t th\u1eddi gian th\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u r\u1eb1ng so v\u1edbi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7u th\u00f4, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng LNG to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n v\u00e0o ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n qua eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz. Ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng d\u00e2y chuy\u1ec1n do t\u1eafc ngh\u1ebdn eo bi\u1ec3n g\u00e2y ra \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u01b0a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb nghi\u00eam t\u00fac cho nh\u1eefng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n. Qatar chi\u1ebfm h\u01a1n 20% l\u01b0\u1ee3ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u LNG to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 h\u01a1n 90% l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a c\u1ea7n \u0111i qua eo bi\u1ec3n. Tuy nhi\u00ean, gi\u00e1 ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean JKM c\u1ee7a Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 JKM \u0110\u00f4ng B\u1eafc \u00c1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng bao g\u1ed3m ph\u00ed b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba l\u00fd li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn Iran. Nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0y r\u1ea5t nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n v\u1edbi b\u00e1o c\u00e1o m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t \"T\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u\" do nh\u00f3m nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Goldman Sachs c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1, v\u00e0 n\u00f3 c\u0169ng c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 c\u00f2n d\u01b0 \u0111\u1ecba \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 cho s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u1ebfp theo trong th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng LNG.<\/p>\n

    \"IMG_256\"<\/p>\n

    K\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi t\u00ednh to\u00e1n m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh cung c\u1ea7u chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p, Wmax \u0111\u01b0a ra r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 suy lu\u1eadn c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i v\u1ec1 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng LNG, ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u1edbp v\u1edbi d\u1eef li\u1ec7u t\u00ednh to\u00e1n k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a Goldman Sachs: N\u1ebfu vi\u1ec7c v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n LNG \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz b\u1ecb gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n k\u00e9o d\u00e0i trong m\u1ed9t th\u00e1ng, gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 ch\u00e2u \u00c1 s\u1ebd t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt 130% l\u00ean 25 USD tr\u00ean m\u1ed9t tri\u1ec7u \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb nhi\u1ec7t Anh; n\u1ebfu gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n k\u00e9o d\u00e0i h\u01a1n hai th\u00e1ng, gi\u00e1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean TTF c\u1ee7a ch\u00e2u \u00c2u s\u1ebd v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 100 euro\/MWh v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh s\u1ebd tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp g\u00e2y ra s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m nhu c\u1ea7u tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. T\u1eeb g\u00f3c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng khu v\u1ef1c, Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 Ch\u00e2u \u00c1 \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh khu v\u1ef1c c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1edfi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng LNG. Xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u LNG c\u1ee7a Qatar ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu ch\u1ea3y sang hai th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00e0y. S\u1ef1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n qua eo bi\u1ec3n s\u1ebd tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp c\u1eaft \u0111\u1ee9t ngu\u1ed3n cung c\u1ea5p LNG c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i \u1edf khu v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y. L\u00e0 nh\u00e0 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u r\u00f2ng LNG l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u1ea3i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y h\u00f3a l\u1ecfng c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y v\u1eabn duy tr\u00ec tr\u00ean 98% trong m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi gian d\u00e0i, khi\u1ebfn kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n ch\u1ed7 cho s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t b\u1ed5 sung \u0111\u1ec3 b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp cho s\u1ef1 thi\u1ebfu h\u1ee5t ngu\u1ed3n cung to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. D\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea5y t\u1eeb b\u00e1o c\u00e1o h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng v\u1ec1 kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a EIA.<\/p>\n

    <\/a>\u0110\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 b\u1edfi nhi\u1ec1u y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ec7m, bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n chi\u1ebfm \u01b0u th\u1ebf v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 nguy c\u01a1 s\u1ed1c n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n<\/strong><\/p>\n

    Wmax, th\u00f4ng qua x\u00e1c th\u1ef1c ch\u00e9o \u0111a chi\u1ec1u v\u1ec1 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecba l\u00fd, c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n v\u1ec1 cung v\u00e0 c\u1ea7u, k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a IEA v\u00e0 EIA, tin r\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng do xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng g\u00e2y ra s\u1ebd b\u1ecb chi ph\u1ed1i b\u1edfi nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n do t\u00e2m l\u00fd th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng g\u00e2y ra c\u00fa s\u1ed1c n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n mang t\u00ednh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed l\u00e0 c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 th\u1ea5p. B\u1ed1n y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ec7m c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i s\u1ebd l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t kh\u1ecfi t\u1ea7m ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t:<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i d\u1ec5 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t: Cho \u0111\u1ebfn nay, kh\u00f4ng b\u00ean n\u00e0o trong cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng v\u00e0o c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i nh\u01b0 m\u1ecf d\u1ea7u, nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y l\u1ecdc d\u1ea7u v\u00e0 c\u00e1c c\u1ea3ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u. Iran ch\u01b0a v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u00f3a d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf v\u00e0 ch\u01b0a ch\u1ea1m t\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u1eaft x\u00edch c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Thi\u1ec7t h\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c cung c\u1ea5p n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng do xung \u0111\u1ed9t g\u00e2y ra l\u00e0 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n v\u1edbi k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a B\u00e1o c\u00e1o \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 r\u1ee7i ro xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng do Nh\u00f3m Kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1;<\/li>\n
    2. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ea3i qua nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n: Gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u h\u00f2a v\u1ed1n t\u1eeb \u0111\u00e1 phi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi 55 USD\/th\u00f9ng. Sau cu\u1ed9c c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng d\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e1 phi\u1ebfn, Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh n\u01b0\u1edbc s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0111i\u1ec1u ti\u1ebft gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. Gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n tr\u00ean c\u1ee7a k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1970 v\u00e0 xung \u0111\u1ed9t Nga-Ukraine n\u0103m 2022. N\u00f3 s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng g\u00e2y ra t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u1edf m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Quan \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0y xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb b\u00e1o c\u00e1o \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang;<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      \"\u56fe\u7247<\/p>\n

        \n
      1. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ee7 d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef \u0111\u1ec7m an to\u00e0n: D\u1eef li\u1ec7u EIA cho th\u1ea5y tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi xung \u0111\u1ed9t b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5, t\u1ed3n kho d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i trong ba tu\u1ea7n li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp v\u00e0 t\u1ed3n kho d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc OECD \u1edf m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 trong 5 n\u0103m qua. B\u1eafc b\u00e1n c\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e3 b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o giai \u0111o\u1ea1n nhu c\u1ea7u n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng tr\u00e1i m\u00f9a v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i m\u00f9a s\u01b0\u1edfi \u1ea5m, v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c1 nh\u01b0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c, Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n v\u00e0 H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ee7 tr\u1eef l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ea7u chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c; \u0111i\u1ec1u c\u1ea7n l\u01b0u \u00fd l\u00e0 C\u00f3, B\u1ed9 N\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Hoa K\u1ef3 g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 n\u00f3i r\u00f5 r\u1eb1ng h\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch gi\u1ea3i ph\u00f3ng kho d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef d\u1ea7u chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c. Tuy nhi\u00ean, n\u1ebfu t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh khu v\u1ef1c tr\u1edf n\u00ean t\u1ed3i t\u1ec7 h\u01a1n, IEA v\u1eabn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn d\u1eaft c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y c\u00f9ng nhau gi\u1ea3i ph\u00f3ng d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef \u0111\u1ec3 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea3i g\u00e1nh ch\u1ecbu tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb. Ph\u00e1n quy\u1ebft n\u00e0y k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a B\u1ed9 N\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u00e0 logic d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a IEA.<\/li>\n
      2. C\u00f3 th\u00eam c\u00e1c k\u00eanh \u0111\u1ec7m cung c\u1ea5p: m\u1ed7i khi gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng 10 USD\/th\u00f9ng, kh\u00f4ng gian chi\u1ebft kh\u1ea5u cho d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 Urals c\u1ee7a Nga s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng mua h\u00e0ng c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi mua t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi n\u1ed5i nh\u01b0 \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c s\u1ebd t\u0103ng l\u00ean \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. N\u1ebfu c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i c\u00e1c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n v\u00e0 b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 c\u1ee7a Nga, th\u00ec kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch ngu\u1ed3n cung to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ea7y m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3, theo t\u00ednh to\u00e1n n\u00e0y. Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Di\u1ec5n \u0111\u00e0n N\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf (IEF); k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a Caitong Securities, m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e1 phi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 y\u1ebfu v\u00e0 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u1eefng l\u1ea1i, nh\u01b0ng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng t\u0103ng d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 c\u1ee7a Nga v\u1eabn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t v\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ec7m nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, t\u1ea1o th\u00e0nh s\u1ef1 x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn ch\u00e9o v\u1edbi logic \u0111\u1ec7m \u0111a chi\u1ec1u c\u1ee7a Wmax.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        <\/a>Tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i v\u00e0 c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t ch\u00ednh cho tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng<\/strong><\/p>\n

        Wmax \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 r\u1eb1ng di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c kh\u00f4i ph\u1ee5c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i bi\u1ec3n \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz l\u00e0 hai \u0111i\u1ec3m neo c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh xu h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. K\u1ebft h\u1ee3p ph\u00e2n t\u00edch m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t t\u1eeb \u200b\u200bIEA v\u00e0 Caitong Securities, t\u00e2m l\u00fd lo ng\u1ea1i r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda ngu\u1ed3n cung s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 v\u00e0 LNG bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng. C\u00f9ng v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 kh\u00f4ng t\u0103ng v\u00e0 thi\u1ebfu d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c, trung t\u00e2m gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd v\u00e0 tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m giao d\u1ecbch xoay quanh nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i nh\u1ecf trong r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb. N\u1ebfu xung \u0111\u1ed9t k\u00e9o d\u00e0i v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n b\u1ecb gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n trong h\u01a1n 4 tu\u1ea7n, n\u00f3 s\u1ebd g\u00e2y ra t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng mang t\u00ednh h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ebfn chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, \u0111\u1ea9y l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t l\u00ean cao v\u00e0 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng l\u1edbn tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. Logic n\u00e0y ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a IMF. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi tham gia th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, Wmax \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m r\u00f5 ba t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i \u0111\u1ec3 h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0: th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t, c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3 ti\u1ebfp theo c\u1ee7a Iran, t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c li\u1ec7u n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y c\u00f3 t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp v\u00e0o c\u00e1c c\u01a1 s\u1edf n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i v\u00e0 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz hay kh\u00f4ng; th\u1ee9 hai, s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i c\u1ee7a giao th\u00f4ng v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i bi\u1ec3n \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz, theo d\u00f5i nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a ch\u1ee7 t\u00e0u v\u00e0 c\u00e1c tuy\u1ebfn v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3; th\u1ee9 ba, ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u1eeb c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf l\u1edbn tr\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, bao g\u1ed3m gi\u1ea3i ph\u00f3ng kho d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a IEA, \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a OPEC+, n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 c\u1ee7a Nga v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef v\u00e0 n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t d\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e1 phi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a B\u1ed9 N\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Hoa K\u1ef3.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        S\u1ef1 leo thang xung \u0111\u1ed9t gi\u1eefa Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u00e0 Iran \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 b\u1ebf t\u1eafc. Xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n 4 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng\/ng\u00e0y v\u00e0 \u00edt nh\u1ea5t 13 t\u00e0u ch\u1edf LNG \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea3i chuy\u1ec3n h\u01b0\u1edbng. C\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t nh\u00e0n r\u1ed7i c\u1ee7a OPEC+ ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 4,35 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng\/ng\u00e0y v\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t d\u1ea7u v\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i t\u1ea1m d\u1eebng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t trong v\u00f2ng 25 ng\u00e0y. K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u l\u00e0 80-90 \u0111\u00f4 la M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed9 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 100 \u0111\u00f4 la M\u1ef9. N\u1ebfu gi\u00e1 LNG \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 ch\u00e2u \u00c1 t\u0103ng 130% trong m\u1ed9t th\u00e1ng th\u00ec TTF \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 100 euro. B\u1ed1n y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ec7m ch\u00ednh l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n v\u00e0 ch\u00fa \u00fd \u0111\u1ebfn ba t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a Iran, ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n v\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9036,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[121],"tags":[139,669,670],"class_list":["post-9035","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-financial-news","tag-139","tag-669","tag-670"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9035","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9035"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9035\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9042,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9035\/revisions\/9042"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9036"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9035"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9035"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9035"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}