{"id":9444,"date":"2026-03-31T15:46:06","date_gmt":"2026-03-31T07:46:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/?p=9444"},"modified":"2026-03-31T15:46:10","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T07:46:10","slug":"%e5%8e%bb%e7%be%8e%e5%85%83%e5%8c%96%e5%8a%a0%e9%80%9f%e4%b8%8e%e5%a2%9e%e9%95%bf%e9%a3%8e%e9%99%a9%e9%9a%90%e7%8e%b0%ef%bc%9awmax-%e8%a7%a3%e8%af%bb%e4%b8%ad%e4%b8%9c%e5%86%b2%e7%aa%81%e4%b8%8b","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.kpai1.cn\/vi\/luu-tru\/9444","title":{"rendered":"Ch\u1ed1ng \u0110\u00f4 la h\u00f3a t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n: Wmax gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch c\u1ee5c di\u1ec7n m\u1edbi c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu M\u1ef9 d\u01b0\u1edbi xung \u0111\u1ed9t Trung \u0110\u00f4ng"},"content":{"rendered":"

D\u1ef1a tr\u00ean vi\u1ec7c theo d\u00f5i to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 chu\u1ed7i di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb Trung \u0110\u00f4ng, ki\u1ec3m ch\u1ee9ng ch\u00e9o d\u1eef li\u1ec7u ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c t\u1eeb C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang M\u1ef9 (Fed) v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng l\u1edbn tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi ph\u00e2n t\u00edch s\u00e2u v\u1ec1 c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu M\u1ef9, c\u1ed9ng v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c xem x\u00e9t l\u1ea1i chu k\u1ef3 5 c\u00fa s\u1ed1c n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb l\u1edbn k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1990, m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u00e2n t\u00edch b\u1ed1n giai \u0111o\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a Wmax v\u1ec1 \"Xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb - Truy\u1ec1n d\u1eabn l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t - K\u00e9o l\u00f9i t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng - Chuy\u1ec3n h\u01b0\u1edbng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch\" cho th\u1ea5y: Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang sa l\u1ea7y v\u00e0o hai sai l\u1ea7m \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 ch\u1ebft ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u2014 th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 coi vi\u1ec7c c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi b\u00e1n th\u00e1o tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu M\u1ef9 ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n \u0111\u1eb1ng sau \u0111\u00f3; th\u1ee9 hai l\u00e0 qu\u00e1 t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o c\u00fa s\u1ed1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n, ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n b\u1ecf qua r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t nhanh ch\u00f3ng chuy\u1ec3n sang suy tho\u00e1i t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng, v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh hai sai l\u1ea7m n\u00e0y s\u1ebd tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh tuy\u1ebfn giao d\u1ecbch c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ecbnh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u trong 3-6 th\u00e1ng t\u1edbi.<\/p>\n

<\/a>M\u1ed9t, Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u b\u00e1n th\u00e1o tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu M\u1ef9: s\u1ef1 c\u1ed9ng h\u01b0\u1edfng gi\u1eefa nhu c\u1ea7u \u1ee9ng ph\u00f3 kh\u1ea9n c\u1ea5p ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng phi \u0111\u00f4 la h\u00f3a d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n<\/strong><\/p>\n

D\u1eef li\u1ec7u ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c do C\u1ee5c D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Li\u00ean bang New York (FRBNY) c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb khi xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng leo thang v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 25 th\u00e1ng 2 n\u0103m 2026, c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia (bao g\u1ed3m ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng, ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n v\u00e0 c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf) \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m n\u1eafm gi\u1eef tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu kho b\u1ea1c M\u1ef9 t\u1ea1i FRBNY 82 t\u1ef7 USD, \u0111\u01b0a t\u1ed5ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u1eafm gi\u1eef xu\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n 2,7 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 USD, m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2012. \u0110i\u1ec1u c\u1ea7n nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh l\u00e0 \u00fd ngh\u0129a t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a d\u1eef li\u1ec7u n\u00e0y v\u01b0\u1ee3t xa nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng: t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2012 \u0111\u1ebfn nay, quy m\u00f4 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu kho b\u1ea1c M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng t\u1eeb 11 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 USD l\u00ean h\u01a1n 30 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 USD, t\u0103ng g\u1ea7n 200%, nh\u01b0ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u1eafm gi\u1eef c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i l\u1ea1i gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t trong 14 n\u0103m, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u1eafm gi\u1eef c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd tr\u00ean t\u1ed5ng quy m\u00f4 l\u01b0u h\u00e0nh tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu kho b\u1ea1c M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m t\u1eeb m\u1ee9c cao l\u1ecbch s\u1eed 34%v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2014 xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi 9%hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i. S\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u00f3 t\u00ednh c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac n\u00e0y l\u00e0 t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch b\u1eb1ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n

\"IMG_256\"<\/p>\n

T\u1eeb logic th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y vi\u1ec7c b\u00e1n th\u00e1o, Wmax \u0111\u00e3 b\u00f3c t\u00e1ch s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc, d\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u00e1n c\u00e2n thanh to\u00e1n v\u00e0 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng can thi\u1ec7p t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1, x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ee3t b\u00e1n th\u00e1o l\u1ea7n n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng do m\u1ed9t y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 duy nh\u1ea5t th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y, m\u00e0 l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 c\u1ed9ng h\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u1ed3ng ch\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a ba l\u1edbp logic:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Nhu c\u1ea7u thanh kho\u1ea3n c\u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng<\/strong>\uff1a eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz \u0111\u1ea3m nh\u1eadn kho\u1ea3ng 30%%d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 v\u00e0 20%%kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean h\u00f3a l\u1ecfng v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n b\u1eb1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng bi\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, xung \u0111\u1ed9t g\u00e2y c\u1ea3n tr\u1edf h\u00e0ng h\u1ea3i, gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u v\u01b0\u1ee3t 110 USD\/th\u00f9ng (m\u1ee9c cao m\u1edbi sau khi Nga-Ukraine n\u0103m 2022). C\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng nh\u01b0 Th\u1ed5 Nh\u0129 K\u1ef3, \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi \u00e1p l\u1ef1c k\u00e9p do ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt, c\u1ea7n b\u00e1n tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed5i ngo\u1ea1i t\u1ec7 thanh to\u00e1n ti\u1ec1n n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, can thi\u1ec7p t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1; Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng Th\u1ed5 Nh\u0129 K\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 b\u00e1n l\u0169y k\u1ebf 22 t\u1ef7 USD tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb ng\u00e0y 27 th\u00e1ng 2 (h\u01a1n 70%%l\u00e0 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu M\u1ef9), ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a Brad Setser.<\/li>\n
  2. Thao t\u00e1c t\u00e1i c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n d\u01b0\u1edbi bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i<\/strong>: Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Bloomberg Dollar Index \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng 2,1%k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb khi xung \u0111\u1ed9t n\u1ed5 ra, \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 12 n\u0103m 2025, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c c\u00e1c t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n b\u1eb1ng USD b\u1ecb ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 v\u01b0\u1ee3t m\u1ee9c th\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ed9ng trong d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i. D\u1ef1a tr\u00ean h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u1eabn qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a IMF, ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n b\u1eb1ng USD b\u1ecb ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 v\u01b0\u1ee3t m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n t\u00e1i c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng, m\u1ed9t ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 khu\u1ebfch \u0111\u1ea1i quy m\u00f4 b\u00e1n tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu kho b\u1ea1c M\u1ef9.<\/li>\n
  3. S\u1ef1 hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c h\u00f3a nhanh ch\u00f3ng c\u1ee7a xu h\u01b0\u1edbng phi \u0111\u00f4 la h\u00f3a to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n<\/strong>\uff1aCu\u1ed9c b\u00e1n th\u00e1o l\u1ea7n n\u00e0y l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n t\u1eadp trung c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c \u0111a d\u1ea1ng h\u00f3a d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, phi \u0111\u00f4 la h\u00f3a. D\u1eef li\u1ec7u COFER qu\u00fd 4 n\u0103m 2025 c\u1ee7a IMF cho th\u1ea5y, t\u1ef7 tr\u1ecdng d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i b\u1eb1ng \u0111\u00f4 la M\u1ef9 gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi 58%(m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1995), vi\u1ec7c ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n phi \u0111\u00f4 la M\u1ef9 t\u0103ng cao, l\u01b0\u1ee3ng mua v\u00e0ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng n\u0103m 2025 l\u1eadp k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c cao th\u1ee9 hai. Megan Swiber c\u1ee7a Bank of America c\u0169ng cho r\u1eb1ng, vi\u1ec7c b\u00e1n th\u00e1o l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ti\u1ebfp n\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a xu h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111a d\u1ea1ng h\u00f3a d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    \"IMG_256\"<\/p>\n

    Regarding the market view that \"holdings are being transferred rather than actually sold,\" we have also conducted rigorous verification: although some US Treasury holdings may have been transferred from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's custody account to offshore custodians such as the European Central Bank and Clearstream, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's custody account holds over 90%of global official institutions' US Treasury holdings, making it the core authoritative indicator for measuring changes in official holdings. Even excluding the impact of holding transfers, the scale of this sell-off remains at a historical high since the 2008 financial crisis. Coupled with the Federal Reserve's $95 billion monthly quantitative tightening, the US Treasury market is facing a double whammy of \"official holdings reduction + Federal Reserve quantitative tightening.\" This is also the core underlying reason why the yields on 2-year and 10-year US Treasuries have seen the largest monthly increase since the beginning of 2024, and why financing costs across the entire US market have significantly surged in the wake of the conflict outbreak.<\/p>\n

    <\/a>II. Sai l\u1ec7ch \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 ch\u1ebft ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng: N\u1ed7i lo l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t che khu\u1ea5t ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n r\u1ee7i ro c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a suy tho\u00e1i t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng<\/strong><\/p>\n

    C\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng hi\u1ec7n nay ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o c\u00fa s\u1ed1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t do xung \u0111\u1ed9t Trung \u0110\u00f4ng g\u00e2y ra: D\u1eef li\u1ec7u m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t t\u1eeb c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 CME FedWatch t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn ng\u00e0y 30 th\u00e1ng 3 cho th\u1ea5y c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u00e3 lo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng Fed c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong n\u0103m 2026, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t 38%cho m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ee3t t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 25 \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n trong n\u0103m nay. Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu kho b\u1ea1c M\u1ef9 c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn \u200b\u200bm\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m h\u00e0ng th\u00e1ng t\u1ed3i t\u1ec7 nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 10 n\u0103m 2024, v\u1edbi t\u1ed5ng l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t th\u00e1ng c\u1ee7a Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu Kho b\u1ea1c Bloomberg M\u1ef9 l\u00e0 \u00e2m 2,1%.<\/p>\n

    Nh\u01b0ng Wmax th\u00f4ng qua vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i chu k\u1ef3 v\u00e0 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng, kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn: c\u00fa s\u1ed1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t do n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng g\u00e2y ra th\u01b0\u1eddng nhanh ch\u00f3ng chuy\u1ec3n th\u00e0nh c\u00fa s\u1ed1c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf trong v\u00f2ng 6-8 tu\u1ea7n. Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, vi\u1ec7c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 m\u1ed9t chi\u1ec1u cho l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u0111\u00e3 sai l\u1ec7ch nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng so v\u1edbi di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng kinh t\u1ebf. Ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 xem x\u00e9t l\u1ea1i 5 c\u00fa s\u1ed1c n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb l\u1edbn bao g\u1ed3m Chi\u1ebfn tranh v\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh n\u0103m 1990, Chi\u1ebfn tranh Iraq n\u0103m 2003 v\u00e0 xung \u0111\u1ed9t Nga-Ukraine n\u0103m 2022, nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y m\u1ed7i chu k\u1ef3 \u0111\u1ec1u tu\u00e2n theo quy lu\u1eadt truy\u1ec1n d\u1eabn: \"Gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng \u2192 \u0110\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u2192 B\u00e1n th\u00e1o tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu M\u1ef9 \u2192 L\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng \u2192 \u00c1p l\u1ef1c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n \u2192 K\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u0103ng \u2192 Tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu M\u1ef9 ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i, l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t gi\u1ea3m\". \u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, chu k\u1ef3 chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t sang \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u01b0a bao gi\u1edd v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 3 th\u00e1ng. Xung \u0111\u1ed9t hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e3 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i h\u01a1n 4 tu\u1ea7n, \u0111ang \u1edf th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ec3 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i logic \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1, nh\u01b0ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 n\u00e0o cho v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

    \"IMG_258\"<\/p>\n

    T\u1eeb g\u00f3c \u0111\u1ed9 d\u1eef li\u1ec7u c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n, n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9 v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 n\u1eb1m trong xu h\u01b0\u1edbng suy gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng, xung \u0111\u1ed9t Trung \u0110\u00f4ng g\u00e2y ra c\u00fa s\u1ed1c gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt v\u00e0 chi ph\u00ed t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh leo thang, \u0111ang \u0111\u1ea9y nhanh r\u1ee7i ro suy tho\u00e1i kinh t\u1ebf:<\/p>\n