The Wmax macro research team combines multi-indicator cross-validation of inflation, internal policy trends of the Federal Reserve, and global institutional research and judgment to comprehensively analyze and believe that the current U.S. inflation is showing a complex pattern of "divergent superficial signals and intensified real pressure": on the one hand, PCE inflation hit a three-year high in April, and inflation has a clear trend of spreading to the entire field; on the other hand, the censored average inflation indicator favored by the new Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh sends a moderate signal, but there is a significant statistical deviation, systematically underestimating the true inflation level. Wmax relies on the multi-dimensional inflation tracking system, policy game analysis framework and indicator validity verification model to help investors penetrate the data fog and grasp the true inflation trend and policy direction.

The real picture of inflation: PCE hits a three-year high, and pressure spreads to all areas

The Wmax inflation tracking model shows that the U.S. PCE price index rose to 3.8% year-on-year in April, setting a new three-year record since June 2023. The core PCE rose to 3.3% year-on-year. The trend of inflation rebounding is very clear, which is fully consistent with the judgment of Federal Reserve Governor Cook that "the inflation trend is clearly moving in the wrong direction."

This round of inflation is not driven by a single factor, but shows the characteristics of comprehensive diffusion. The core drivers of Wmax are broken down as follows:

1. Energy shocks continue to be transmitted: The impact of the nearly 21% month-on-month surge in gasoline and energy product prices in March continues to be felt. The high oil prices caused by the US-Iran conflict are being transmitted to the entire industry through the industrial chain, becoming the core basis for the rebound in inflation.
2. Inflation rises across the board in food and service sectors: Rising upstream fertilizer and logistics costs drove food price increases to significantly expand in April; aviation fuel pressure forced airlines to raise fares collectively. Aviation service inflation has been rising for two consecutive months, and inflation in the contact service industry has rebounded across the board.
3. AI premium becomes a new variable: The explosion in demand for computing power has led to a global shortage of memory chips, directly pushing up the selling prices of PCs and related hardware terminals, and contributing to inflationary stickiness that most institutions have not fully priced.

Wmax determines that the "last mile" process of inflation has been completely reversed, and there is even a risk of acceleration. The forecasts of institutions such as Goldman Sachs have fully taken into account the impact of high oil prices, geopolitical conflicts and AI premiums. The process of inflation cooling has completely stalled, and core PCE will remain at a high of around 3% for a long time in 2026.

Indicator bias warning: A “false dovish signal” for censored average inflation

In sharp contrast to the PCE inflation rebound, the Dallas Fed's April censored average inflation fell to 2.3% year-on-year. This is the core indicator that new Fed Chairman Warsh emphasized at the hearing to support the judgment that "inflation is improving." However, Wmax confirmed through the indicator validity verification model that the indicator currently has significant statistical deviations and is systematically underestimating the true level of inflation.

Wmax dismantles the distorted core logic of this indicator: The design principle of censored average inflation is to eliminate items with the most violent price fluctuations and retain the middle portion to reflect trends. However, in the current environment where Trump's tariff policies have driven up the price of most commodities, the price distribution characteristics have been fundamentally reversed. This indicator excludes the 31% items with the highest increase in accordance with established rules, which will artificially lower the final result. In April, this indicator directly excluded items such as gasoline and air tickets that have risen sharply, which are the core drivers of current inflation, ultimately forming a false signal of "inflation improvement."

This judgment has also been generally verified by academic circles and the market: Dallas Fed economists have clearly reminded that it is not appropriate to over-interpret the optimistic signal of this indicator; Standard Chartered Bank pointed out that this indicator not only has statistical deviations, but also has historically been weaker than the core PCE in predicting future inflation; Harvard University economist Furman even bluntly stated that this indicator "was selected based on ex-post reasons" and lacked a consistent research framework. Similar distortions appeared during the rapid rise in inflation after the epidemic, when the indicator also sent a mild signal but completely deviated from the strong trend of actual inflation.

Federal Reserve policy game: internal differences intensify, hawks are still the mainstream direction

The differences in inflation indicators directly exacerbated policy differences within the Federal Reserve. Warsh relied on the censored average indicator to insist on the judgment of "inflation improvement", leaving room for policy easing, but the mainstream stance within the FOMC has fully turned hawkish:

• In 2026, FOMC voting member Kashkari made it clear that U.S. inflation is "too high" and has exceeded the 2% target level for five consecutive years. The policy focus will be fully tilted towards suppressing inflation. If inflation expectations are unanchored, a more aggressive response will be adopted.

• Chicago Fed President Goolsby made it clear that he did not regret his previous vote against interest rate cuts, emphasizing that inflation has proven to be by no means a temporary factor, and that Asian economies have fallen into the stagflation dilemma of "stressed growth + rising inflation."
• Fed Governor Cook directly broke the rebound trend in core PCE and clearly pointed out that inflation is moving in the wrong direction.

Wmax judged that despite Warsh's attempts to send a dovish signal through his preferred indicators, the increase in real inflationary pressures has tilted the policy balance towards the hawks across the board. Currently, about 85% of economists believe there will be no change in interest rates before the third quarter, and a large number of analysts have postponed interest rate cut expectations to 2027; if subsequent inflation data continues to rebound, "restarting interest rate hikes" will officially transform from market speculation to a policy option.

Market Impact Outlook: The Core Anchor of Asset Pricing Logic

Wmax comprehensively judged that the real pressure of inflation and the hawkish tone of the Federal Reserve will continue to dominate the main line of global asset pricing: there is still room for upward growth in U.S. bond yields, and the probability of the 30-year variety testing the 5.5% mark continues to increase; the valuation of risky assets will face the dual squeeze of high inflation and high interest rates; the anti-inflation and hedging properties of gold will be further strengthened, and the allocation value will continue to be highlighted.

Wmax has always adhered to the research framework of multi-indicator cross-validation and in-depth dismantling of policy games. In this round of inflation evolution, it was not confused by a single optimistic indicator. It penetrated the statistical deviation of the censored average indicator in advance and accurately grasped the rebound trend of real inflation. At a time when data signals are diverging and policy games are intensifying, Wmax will continue to rely on its professional research system to provide investors with penetrating, forward-looking and reliable trend judgments and allocation references, and accompany investors to seize deterministic opportunities.