The Wmax commodity research team combines the latest geopolitical dynamics, high-frequency shipping data, oil price trends and institutional research, relying onGeoenergy Risk Monitoring Framework、Shipping cost calculation model与Crude oil supply and demand balance systemComprehensive analysis and judgment: The Trump administration plans to impose a 20% "compensation fee" on goods transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which will escalate the regional conflict again and completely reverse the market's previous optimistic expectations for loose crude oil supply. International oil prices surged nearly 9% in a single day, the "NACHO trading" strategy returned to the mainstream of the market, and the probability of the Strait of Hormuz returning to pre-war normality has dropped significantly. In the short term, oil prices will continue to be supported by geo-risk premiums, and in the long term, the construction of bypass pipelines in the Gulf countries will be accelerated, which will gradually reshape the global crude oil supply pattern.

The 20% transit fee plan is thrown out, with double disputes over cost and legality

The Trump administration’s latest Strait of Hormuz toll plan has become the direct trigger for this round of market reversal. According to its public statement, the United States will impose a 20% "compensation fee" on all transit goods as the "guardian" of the strait, and name countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Israel to bear relevant costs on the grounds that U.S. military operations in the Middle East are "mainly to protect allies."

Wmax shipping cost model calculations show that based on the current oil price of approximately US$80/barrel, a single-passage cost for a supertanker loaded with 2 million barrels of crude oil is as high as US$32 million, which is equivalent to an increase in transportation costs of approximately US$16 per barrel of crude oil. This is more than ten times the previous cap of similar charges in Iran, and far exceeds the industry's conventional sea freight levels - usually the freight paid by shippers only accounts for 2%-3% and 20% of the value of the goods. The charging standard is equivalent to amplifying the transportation cost by nearly ten times. This plan triggered strong reactions in the shipping industry. Many industry insiders said they had no prior knowledge, and even the captain described it as "highway robbery."

There are still many unsolved problems in this plan. The billing rules have not yet been clarified, and the market cannot confirm whether the charges will be allocated based on the value of the cargo, escort costs or blockade costs; the cost bearers are also unclear, and it is still unclear how shipowners, shippers and insurance companies will allocate costs. If the insurance institution determines that the risk in the strait is too high, it may refuse underwriting even if there is escort service. At the same time, the legality of the plan is also controversial: the Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway, and ships have the right to free passage according to international law. The mandatory collection of tolls lacks legal support; it can only be interpreted as a voluntary paid escort and security service, and there are still huge doubts about its actual operability and market acceptance. This plan is currently more of a bargaining chip in geopolitical games than a mature implementation policy. Maintaining lasting control of the strait requires large-scale military deployment, and the Trump administration has always been unwilling to invest ground troops. It is difficult to achieve comprehensive toll management by escorting the southern route alone, and the probability of comprehensive implementation in the short term is not high.

Geopolitical expectations have completely changed, oil prices have rebounded violently and NACHO trading has returned

The conflicts over toll plans have escalated again, completely shattering the market’s previous optimistic expectations for the strait’s rapid recovery. Brent crude oil rose more than 9% in a single day on Monday, the largest single-day increase since May 2020; WTI crude oil rose nearly 9%, almost erasing all the decline in the past month. On Tuesday, both Asian oil prices continued to rise, with WTI once standing above $80 and Brent touching $85. Market sentiment quickly switched from "easy supply" to "risk of disruption." Wmax geo-risk monitoring shows that the market had prematurely equated the partial opening of the strait to the end of the crisis, underestimating the recurring nature of the regional situation. As two oil tankers in the United Arab Emirates were attacked by Iranian cruise missiles and the United States resumed its blockade of Iranian ships, institutions generally revised their judgments. Think tanks such as the Center for a New American Security clearly pointed out that the possibility of the Strait of Hormuz returning to the old pre-war normal was "almost zero."

In this expectation, Wall Street’s classic “NACHO trading” strategy has gained steam again. The full name of this strategy is "There is no chance that the Strait of Hormuz will be opened." The core logic is to bet that the strait will remain semi-closed for a long time, with only a small number of ships passing through quietly, until high oil prices and inflationary pressures reach unbearable levels. Wmax observed that the return of this trading logic is not simply short-term speculation: global crude oil inventories have continued to be depleted to historical lows, and the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has dropped to the lowest level since 1983. The buffer capacity of inventories has been significantly weakened, further amplifying the price elasticity of supply disruptions.

It is worth noting that although expectations for rising oil prices have increased, speculative funds have not entered the market in large numbers. After nearly five months of repeated conflicts, futures positions of hedge funds and other institutions have declined, and market participants generally remain on the sidelines, resulting in weakened market liquidity and further amplified oil price fluctuations. Wmax believes that the core contradiction in the current market has shifted from "oversupply" to "uncertainty pricing": the real impact of the charging plan is not in the direct cost, but in that it releases a signal that the risk of shipping disruption in the Strait is increasing, completely subverting the previous expectations of loose supply. Citigroup and other institutions also warned that if the charging plan is implemented, the risk of military escalation will increase significantly, the probability of Iran abandoning the ceasefire memorandum of understanding will increase simultaneously, and oil prices may remain high for a longer period of time.

Reshaping the long-term pattern: the construction of pipelines around the gorge is accelerated

The long-term geopolitical risks are forcing Gulf oil-producing countries to accelerate the diversification of transportation routes. Wmax tracking found that major oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates have generally regarded the Strait of Hormuz as a long-term vulnerable node. They are shifting crude oil exports outside the strait and reducing their reliance on a single waterway through new oil pipelines, expansion of existing pipelines, and construction of offshore ports. Goldman Sachs calculations show that if all existing plans are implemented, more than 45% of oil exports in the Gulf region can bypass the Strait of Hormuz by the end of 2027; if construction progress exceeds expectations, this proportion can increase to 75% by the end of 2028.

Among them, the United Arab Emirates has taken the fastest action. It has already implemented some export bypasses through the pipeline from Abu Dhabi to Fujairah. After withdrawing from OPEC, it further accelerated the expansion of ports and pipelines. Wmax also pointed out that there are obvious limitations in the construction of alternative systems: on the one hand, the project requires a huge investment of billions of dollars, and the construction period lasts for several years, and it cannot fill the supply gap of the Strait outage in the short term; on the other hand, pipelines specially built to bypass the Strait may themselves become military targets and cannot completely eliminate security risks. Therefore, diversification of transportation routes is the direction of reshaping the long-term pattern. However, in the next 3-5 years, the Strait of Hormuz will still be the core throat of global crude oil supply, and its risk premium will be difficult to completely eliminate.

Wmax market outlook research and core tracking clues

Combining the geopolitical game, supply and demand fundamentals and market sentiment, Wmax makes a comprehensive judgment on the subsequent trend of the crude oil market:

1. price trend: Short-term geo-risk premium dominates, oil prices are easy to rise but hard to fall, and the fluctuation range is significantly amplified. The 80-85 US dollars range will become the core range of the long-short game; the mid-term trend depends on the duration of the conflict and the implementation of the charging plan. If the situation further escalates, oil prices still have room to rise; in the long term, with the advancement of diversification of supply paths, the center of the Strait risk premium will gradually fall back.
2. Game pattern: The 20% charging plan is essentially a new bargaining chip in the U.S.-Iran game. It is extremely difficult to fully implement, but it will significantly weaken the stability of the ceasefire memorandum of understanding. The uncertainty of U.S.-Iran negotiations will increase significantly, and the regional situation will enter a longer period of fragile equilibrium.
3. Industry impact: Rising shipping costs will gradually push up terminal oil prices, benefiting non-Gulf onshore oil-producing countries; pipeline construction, port expansion, security services and other related industrial chains will see long-term demand growth.

In the future, we will focus on tracking four core clues: first, the implementation details and implementation progress of the toll plan; second, the evolution of the US-Iran conflict and the actual navigation situation of the Strait of Hormuz; third, the construction progress of the Gulf countries' bypass pipeline project; fourth, changes in global crude oil inventories and the flow of speculative funds.