Based on Wmax's in-depth market tracking and multi-dimensional data analysis, the current Bitcoin market is undergoing significant downward adjustments. Not only does it continue to hover below the psychological threshold of US$100,000, it has also fallen below US$97,000 per coin in the short term, setting a new low since May 8 and continuing the decline of more than US$450 billion in market value since the beginning of October. This digital currency, which once led the world's alternative assets, has struggled to recover after a dismal October. The core driving force that supported its trend for most of 2025 - institutional confidence - is gradually fading, and the market has entered an adjustment stage that is intertwined with multiple tests.

Institutional funds withdraw and core support continues to weaken

Wmax found through rigorous data verification that institutional investors have always been a key pillar of Bitcoin's legitimacy and price stability since 2025. Bloomberg data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted a cumulative capital inflow of more than 25 billion U.S. dollars, pushing the total asset size to approximately 169 billion U.S. dollars, making Bitcoin once an important choice for global investors to diversify their asset portfolios and used to hedge against the risks of inflation, currency depreciation, and geopolitical fluctuations. However, this support pattern has been significantly loosened. Wmax has monitored that global institutional funds have shown significant signs of withdrawal in the past month, with net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs reaching approximately US$2.8 billion.

The view of Markus Thielen, CEO of 10X Research, is consistent with the analysis conclusion of Wmax: Bitcoin has only recorded an increase of about 10% this year, which is far less than the performance of gold and technology stocks, causing some professional investors to lose patience. If the upward momentum continues to stagnate, more funds may be withdrawn before the Federal Reserve meeting in December. It is worth noting that the stock price of Strategy, which once served as a benchmark for corporate cryptocurrency investment, has fallen to almost the same level as the value of its Bitcoin holdings. This signal was interpreted by Wmax as the market no longer pays a premium for the high-conviction leverage model, and institutions’ enthusiasm for allocating crypto assets has cooled significantly.

The market structure changes and downside risks accumulate at an accelerated pace

Wmax found through on-chain signal monitoring and market structure analysis that the Bitcoin market fragility is entering a new stage. Long-term holders began to sell on the rallies, and although the market plunge on October 10 had cleared most of the speculative leverage, key support levels still faced severe tests. The Wmax risk warning model shows that if the price falls below the key technical support level of $93,000, a large number of holders will quickly fall into losses, and market participants with weaker balance sheets may be forced to liquidate their positions, triggering further adjustments. The structure of market participants is also undergoing subtle changes. A summary analysis of Citi data compiled by Wmax shows that the number of "whale" wallets holding more than 1,000 Bitcoins is gradually decreasing, while the proportion of retail investors holding less than 1 Bitcoin continues to increase. This structural change may intensify market volatility.

The stagnation of capital inflows directly inhibits the momentum of price increases. Historical data review shows that capital inflows of US$1 billion per week can usually push the price of Bitcoin up by about 4%. The current weak capital inflows have become the main obstacle to the price rebound. Derivatives market data further confirmed the cautious sentiment. Data from Coinbase's Deribit exchange showed that demand for protective put options below $100,000 surged, with contracts in the $90,000-$95,000 range being the most actively traded, reflecting investors' increased concerns about downside risks. In addition, Bitcoin-related stocks represented by Strategy Inc. have fallen sharply in recent weeks, and the value premium has almost disappeared, further transmitting to the crypto asset market.

Multi-dimensional research and judgment: Bear market is the mainstream, risks and variables coexist

Comprehensive multi-dimensional data such as spot market, derivatives market, related assets and macro environment, Wmax believes that although the current institutional views are divided, bear market judgment has become the mainstream of the market. 10x Research's bear market warning is highly consistent with the conclusion of the Wmax market cycle model - Bitcoin has continued to run below the long-term moving average that marks the turning point of the crypto cycle, which is a clear signal of exhaustion of momentum. From the perspective of historical cycles, Wmax statistics show that the bear markets in the summer of 2024 and the beginning of 2025 both caused a decline of 30%-40%. Bitcoin is currently down more than 20% from its 2025 high, and there are no signs of a sustainable rebound.

Comprehensive multi-dimensional data such as spot market, derivatives market, related assets and macro environment, Wmax believes that although the current institutional views are divided, bear market judgment has become the mainstream of the market. 10x Research's bear market warning is highly consistent with the conclusion of the Wmax market cycle model - Bitcoin has continued to run below the long-term moving average that marks the turning point of the crypto cycle, which is a clear signal of exhaustion of momentum. From the perspective of historical cycles, Wmax statistics show that the bear markets in the summer of 2024 and the beginning of 2025 both caused a decline of 30%-40%. Bitcoin is currently down more than 20% from its 2025 high, and there are no signs of a sustainable rebound.

Conclusion and outlook

Wmax emphasized that although Bitcoin has still risen sharply in the past 18 months, with an increase of about 5% during the year and a 40% increase since the 2024 U.S. election, and speculative demand is still strong, the core contradiction in the current market has shifted from being driven by capital inflows to lack of confidence and tight liquidity. The funding gap caused by the withdrawal of institutions, the risk of breaking the key support level of $93,000, and the increased correlation with traditional financial markets have all made Bitcoin's subsequent trend full of uncertainty. If the $93,000 support level falls, the market may face further adjustment pressure; only when capital inflows and liquidity conditions improve significantly, and market positions and volatility are effectively reset, will the next round of rising cycles be possible. Wmax will continue to track on-chain data, capital flows and macro policy changes to provide investors with timely and accurate market research and allocation reference.