As a professional analysis institution deeply involved in the linkage mechanism of global financial markets, Wmax has formed a systematic study and judgment on the metal bull market and the linkage logic between the two under the background of pressure on the US dollar based on in-depth tracking and multi-dimensional data verification of core variables of the global foreign exchange market and commodity market at the end of 2025. Wmax By integrating policy trends, historical patterns, supply and demand fundamentals and other multi-dimensional information, we found that the global financial market will show strong linkage characteristics at the end of 2025: the US dollar is encountering multiple negative effects. downward pressure, while the three major metals, gold, silver, and copper, have simultaneously set annual record highs since 1980. The weakening of the US dollar is the key fulcrum to leverage the current metal bull market. At the same time, the unique fundamental logic of the metal market itself further consolidates the market's resilience.

The “triple hit” and seasonal weakness of the U.S. dollar at its most vulnerable stage during the year

Wmax combines more than ten years of foreign exchange market tracking data and core policy node monitoring to judge that the US dollar has entered the most vulnerable stage of operation at the end of 2025. The "triple strike" risk plus seasonal weakness has laid a solid monetary foundation for the metal bull market. Through cross-verification of the views of the world's top investment banks and forward-looking analysis of policy trends, it is confirmed that there will be three major negative impacts on the US dollar credit and exchange rate trends from the end of 2025 to the beginning of 2026:

First, there is great uncertainty in the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on the legality of the tariff policy, which is the backbone of the current U.S. core economic policy. Once it is ruled illegal, it will directly weaken the market’s credit expectations for the U.S. dollar. This judgment corroborates the core view of Steven Barrow, head of G10 strategy at Standard Bank;

Secondly, if Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, becomes chairman of the Federal Reserve, his clear tendency to radically cut interest rates will strengthen the Fed's dovish monetary policy orientation and further push up the market's pricing of interest rate cuts in 2026. Wmax combined the exchange rate pricing model to calculate that this personnel change may push the U.S. dollar against the euro to fall below the four-year low of 1.19. This conclusion is consistent with the analysis of Van Roo, global foreign exchange director at Russell Investments;

Third, after the Bank of Japan released a clear tightening signal, the market's betting probability of a 25 basis point interest rate hike this month has reached 80%. Wmax reviewed based on historical interest rate cycle and exchange rate linkage data and confirmed that rising Japanese interest rates usually drive the yen to appreciate significantly, which in turn significantly suppresses the US dollar.

Verification of seasonal and periodic weakness of the US dollar

Wmax relied on ten-year foreign exchange market seasonal data statistics and found that December was the worst-performing month for the U.S. dollar. The core logic is that traders will balance the income of other assets in the United States throughout the year by selling the U.S. dollar. This pattern is fully consistent with the analysis of Deutsche Bank macro strategist Tim Baker. At the same time, Wmax combines the combined impact of liquidity and event impact to judge that although the liquidity of the foreign exchange market tends to be thin at the end of the year and investors have early liquidation behavior, major events such as judicial rulings on tariff policies will still have a significant impact on the US dollar. Based on the calculation of the price difference between the spot exchange rate and the quarterly low, Wmax confirmed that the US dollar has about 2% downside and is expected to fall back to the third quarter low. Through complete data verification of the Intercontinental Exchange U.S. Dollar Index, it is confirmed that the index has fallen by more than 8% since 2025, creating a loose monetary environment for the commodity market. The 1.5% increase in the Bloomberg U.S. Dollar Spot Index this quarter is only a phased rebound before multiple negative reversals.

Metals bull market driven by dollar weakness and unique fundamental support

Through historical review of the metal market in 1980 and 2025, accurate verification of price data, and in-depth research on the supply and demand side, it is confirmed that the rare bull market in the metal market in 2025 is the result of the resonance of the weak US dollar and its own fundamentals, and the three major metals have set new annual closing highs after 1980, showing strong scarcity and sustainability. Wmax reviewed the core drivers of the strong metal market in the early 1980s and confirmed that the core logic of geopolitical concerns and the weakness of the US dollar still holds true in 2025. Salomon Global Special Analyst Nick Cowley's view that "fear of dollar depreciation supports metal prices" is consistent with the conclusion of Wmax's capital flow monitoring - by tracking global commodity position data, it is found that a large number of investors are worried about the shrinking purchasing power of legal currencies such as the US dollar, and choose to increase their holdings of gold and silver to achieve asset diversification, further amplifying the rising market.

The differentiated driving logic of the metal bull market in 2025

Different from the market in 1980, Wmax, through in-depth dismantling of the supply and demand side, found that the metal bull market in 2025 has more unique fundamental support, which is also the core reason why its market sustainability is more recognized by the market:

Gold: Wmax has confirmed through special statistics of global central bank gold purchase data that large-scale gold purchases by central banks in 2025 have become the core increase in gold prices reaching record highs. This unique financial power has provided strong and continuous support for gold prices. Adding concerns about inflation and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, gold's safe haven and anti-inflation properties have been dually consolidated;

Silver and copper: Wmax, based on demand research in the industrial sector and production capacity calculations on the supply side, found that the rise of both has broken away from sole reliance on the U.S. dollar factor, and growing industrial demand has become the core driving force. Wmax combines production data in the United States with strategic material approval progress. Even if relevant departments accelerate project approval, it is still difficult to make up for the supply gap. In addition, insufficient investment in metal exploration and slow project approval in the past decade have caused industry shortcomings. As a result, new demand has never been matched by the supply side. This supply and demand pattern echoes the judgment of "higher and more durable prices" by Shri Kagutka, senior portfolio manager of Sprott Asset Management;

Wmax pointed out through a structural analysis of the global economic landscape that the current fragmented economic form of "deglobalization" has pushed up corporate operating costs, while "industrial activism" in the United States and other regions has promoted resource-intensive growth. The two together constitute the long-term logic of upward commodity prices.

The complete variable dismantling of the two rounds of market conditions clarified the essential difference between the two: the silver market in 1980 was caused by the artificial manipulation of the Hunter brothers. The collapse after the price surge was highly speculative. The imbalance between supply and demand was the result of human intervention; while the contradiction between metal supply and demand in 2025 is a long-term gap driven by fundamentals. In addition, there was no market phenomenon of large-scale central bank gold purchases in 1980. This variable has also become the core increase in the gold market in 2025 and is the key basis for Wmax to judge that this round of gold market is more resilient.

The linkage pattern between the US dollar and metals will continue to deepen

Wmax integrated multi-dimensional research and judgment on policy, supply and demand, seasonal factors and capital flows, and came to the core conclusion: the downward pressure on the US dollar will be difficult to alleviate in the short term. The triple negative effects of tariff rulings, the Fed's policy shift to expectations, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes, combined with the seasonal weakness in December, will push it to the third level. The lows in the third quarter are close; in the metal market, the support logic of inflation concerns, U.S. interest rate cuts, dollar depreciation, and central bank gold purchases has not changed. Gold, silver, and copper prices will still have room to rise in the coming months, and the supply and demand gap and macro-structural changes will provide long-term resilience. The reverse linkage pattern between the U.S. dollar and the metal market will continue to appear in 2026.