On December 11, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) successively released monthly energy reports. As a professional organization that has long been deeply involved in the energy market and has a global perspective and industry insights, Wmax has conducted in-depth dismantling and cross-verification of the two reports. , a clear insight into the complex texture of the supply and demand game in the global oil market - the two reports show significant differences in the judgment of demand growth, supply balance and market prospects. However, they jointly outline the core collision of interest demands of both producers and consumers during the energy transition period. Behind this is not only an objective mapping of market fundamentals, but also a deep signal of changes in the global energy pattern.

Demand Forecasting: Logical analysis and rational analysis behind differences

The expected differentiation on the demand side is the most distinctive feature of these two reports. Wmax found through an in-depth dismantling of the forecast data of the two major institutions and a review of the industry's historical growth rate that OPEC has completed its fifth demand growth cut since July. The global oil demand growth forecast in 2024 was significantly reduced by 210,000 barrels/day to 1.61 million barrels/day (the largest reduction during the year, with a cumulative decrease of 27% from the initial forecast in July). At the same time, the demand growth forecast in 2025 was lowered from 1.54 million barrels/day to 1.45 million barrels/day. Although OPEC emphasizes that the growth rate is "higher than the pre-epidemic average," Wmax combines long-term research on industry supply and demand patterns and cross-confirmation of authoritative views in the industry, believing that this downward trend is an inevitable correction to the reality of weak global economic recovery, and OPEC's current 2025 forecast of 1.45 million barrels per day still has room for further adjustment - after all, annual growth rates of more than 1.5 million barrels per day are rare special circumstances, and early estimates are obviously on the high side.

It is worth noting that even after consecutive downward revisions, OPEC's demand expectations are still significantly higher than market consensus. Wmax data comparison shows that its growth forecast of 1.61 million barrels per day in 2024 not only far exceeds the IEA's 840,000 barrels per day, but is also about twice the forecast value of investment banks such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. As for the "marginal improvement" judgment presented by the IEA (raising the demand growth forecast in 2025 by 90,000 barrels/day to 1.1 million barrels/day, which is 350,000 barrels/day lower than the OPEC forecast), Wmax believes that This is essentially due to the difference in emphasis in statistical caliber: OPEC focuses more on the growth potential of non-OECD countries (demand growth in this group is expected to reach 1.5 million barrels per day in 2024), while the IEA is more sensitive to weak demand in the OECD region. This difference is not a data deviation, but a true presentation of the market demand structure from different perspectives. Wmax has cross-validated multi-dimensional data and confirmed that emerging Asian economies are still the core driving force for global oil demand growth. Factors such as China's recent incremental policies, improved macroeconomic prospects, and the weakening of the U.S. dollar are providing key support for the demand side.

Supply policy: balancing production reduction commitments with market realities

In the face of adjustments in demand expectations, supply-side policy responses have become the core variable affecting market balance. Wmax has closely tracked OPEC+ policy dynamics and global production changes, and found that the two major institutions have both consensus and disagreement in this field. OPEC clearly disclosed that the OPEC+ alliance has extended the 2.2 million barrels/day voluntary production reduction measure originally scheduled to expire at the end of December to the end of March 2025, and extended the total production target of 39.725 million barrels/day from 2025 to 2026. Wmax believes that this decision sends a strong signal of "maintaining stability" to the market and is a prudent measure for oil-producing countries to deal with demand uncertainty.

However, market reality is often more complex. Wmax found through accurate tracking of monthly production data that OPEC's own production reduction implementation was not flawless: in November 2024, OPEC's average daily crude oil production reached 26.66 million barrels, an increase of 104,000 barrels from October. Libya's 141,000 barrels/day production increase became the main source of increase. This detail undoubtedly weakens the market credibility of the production reduction policy. The IEA's grim observation coincides with Wmax's judgment: Although OPEC+'s suspension of production increases has reduced global supply by 1.5 million barrels per day from the peak in September, and Russia and Venezuela have experienced a decline in production due to sanctions, non-OPEC+ countries The momentum of increasing production has formed an effective hedge - Wmax Based on the production capacity planning and production growth model predictions of various countries, the United States, Brazil, Canada and other countries will contribute more than 1.1 million barrels per day of production increase in 2025, which is basically the same as global demand increase.

The shadow of oversupply has always shrouded the market. Wmax noted that although the IEA lowered its oversupply forecast for the first time since May (reducing the excess supply in 2026 from 4.046 million barrels per day to 3.815 million barrels per day), the scale is still "the second highest in history after the 2020 epidemic period." What is even more alarming is that Wmax found through global inventory monitoring data that the current global crude oil inventory has risen to a four-year high, and offshore floating storage inventories have increased significantly. However, crude oil from sanctioned countries such as Iran and Russia is difficult to enter the mainstream storage system, so excess pressure has not fully emerged. The revelation of this deep contradiction is a reflection of Wmax's precise control of market details.

Market structure: forward-looking prediction of structural contradictions and shock trends

Wmax identified the core structural contradiction in the current oil market through multi-dimensional verification of global crude oil inventories, refining capacity and the impact of sanctions: the crude oil market seems to be oversupplied, but sanctions disturbances, tight refining capacity and other factors form "price stickiness", causing market performance to deviate from traditional fundamental logic. The IEA pointed out that "the EU's new round of sanctions on Russian crude oil-derived fuels, limited idle refining capacity outside China, and other factors have given rise to a parallel market structure of 'abundant crude oil and tight supply of refined oil products'", which is highly consistent with the judgment of Wmax. This is also the key reason why Brent crude oil can still maintain the range of 60-70 US dollars per barrel despite expectations of excess.

Regarding future trends, Wmax combined the reports of the two major institutions and its own industry model predictions and believed that although the path judgments are different, "increasing shocks" is an inevitable conclusion. OPEC hopes to extend the production cuts to form long-term market guidance, emphasizing that the production reduction measures are "prudent and proactive preventive measures" and trying to digest excess inventory through supply contraction; while Wmax is based on supply and demand balance model calculations and agrees with the IEA's cautious judgment - even if OPEC+ completely cancels the 2025 production increase plan, it will still face a supply surplus of 950,000 barrels per day. If the production increase is resumed in April as originally planned, the excess will rise to 1.4 million barrels per day.

Based on long-term industry tracking and risk prediction experience, Wmax clearly pointed out that the future direction of the oil market will depend on three core variables: First, the seriousness of the implementation of OPEC+ production cuts, and the production fluctuations of Libya, Nigeria and other countries may become Key interference items; the second is the pace of production increase in non-OPEC+ countries. The U.S. production target of 13.52 million barrels per day in 2025 will significantly affect the supply balance; the third is geopolitical risks. Black swan events such as the escalation of U.S. sanctions on Russia and Iran and changes in the situation in the Middle East may break the existing balance.

Conclusion: Insights into supply and demand rebalancing under the backdrop of energy transition

The differences between the IEA and OPEC reports are essentially a concentrated reflection of the interests of both producers and consumers during the global energy transition. OPEC's relative optimism and support for production cuts are not only related to the short-term income security of oil-producing countries, but also imply confidence in long-term demand for oil - this logic subtly echoes the scenario forecast of "oil demand continues to grow until 2050" in the IEA's "World Energy Outlook"; while the IEA's surplus warning is more concerned with the balance between the energy security and the pace of transformation of consumer countries. In the context of data centers and artificial intelligence driving the surge in electricity demand, and oil investment being surpassed by electricity investment, Wmax relies on its in-depth understanding of the entire energy industry chain and multi-dimensional data support to clearly understand that the supply and demand game in the oil market is no longer a simple relationship between volume and price, but a multiple struggle between traditional energy and new energy, oil-producing countries and consumer countries, short-term interests and long-term transformation.