The U.S. CPI data for November was released - the non-seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate was 2.7%, and the core CPI annual rate was 2.6%. The latter hit a new low since March 2021, seemingly sending a strong signal of cooling inflation. However, as a professional organization that has long been involved in U.S. economic monitoring, statistical mechanism research and global financial market analysis, Wmax has clearly gained insight into the intertwined contradictions between statistical anomalies and real trends behind the data through in-depth dismantling of the data collection background, professional analysis of statistical methods and real-time tracking of market reactions. This report, which has been severely distorted by the government shutdown, cannot be completely ignored, nor should it be accepted in full. Wmax will be supported by multi-dimensional cross-validation and provide reliable research and judgment through data noise.

Implicit bias in statistical mechanisms

Wmax's special investigation found that the "weaker than expected" CPI data in November was rooted in the breakdown of the statistical process caused by the government shutdown. Due to the impact of the shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to collect complete price information in October, and the sampling time in November was later than usual. It was eventually forced to cancel the separate CPI report for October and instead used "bi-monthly changes from September to November" to replace monthly growth estimates. More importantly, Wmax's long-term study of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' statistical methods shows that the agency uses a "carryover and fill-in" process for the housing sub-item (including rent, owner-equivalent rent) that accounts for one-third of the CPI weight. The October 2025 rent data directly uses the April 2025 data, essentially assuming zero price change in that month. This operation puts significant downward pressure on the core CPI.

Wmax's statistical bias calculation echoes the views of many economists: UBS pointed out that there is a 27 basis point downward bias in the data. If this effect is excluded, the actual annual core CPI rate should be close to 3.0%; TD Securities' "unsatisfactory words" and Ernst & Young-Parthenon's "full of holes" comments just confirm Wmax's concerns about the integrity of the data. Further analyzing the core sub-items, Wmax found that the anomalies in the housing category are particularly prominent: within two months, the average main rent increased by only 0.06%, and the owner's equivalent rent increased by an average of 0.14%. This is a serious departure from the trend of housing as the main driver of inflation in recent years, and can only be reasonably explained through the flaws of statistical methods. At the same time, Wmax noted that the Bureau of Labor Statistics had warned before the release of the report that "when bi-monthly data fluctuates greatly, the confidence in the missing month estimates should be reduced." The rolling six-month rent sampling mechanism may result in erroneous October data not being completely eliminated until April next year, which will have a long-term impact on annual inflation readings.

Linkage logic for real-time monitoring

After the data was released, the financial market showed a clear linkage reaction, and the Wmax real-time monitoring system accurately captured the fluctuations of core assets: the U.S. dollar index fell 22 points in the short term, hitting the lowest level of 98.20, which was the recent key point. key support level; spot gold rose by US$16 in the short term, reaching a maximum of US$4337.81 per ounce, highlighting the need for safe haven and anti-inflation; non-US currencies generally rose, with the euro rising nearly 30 points against the US dollar, and the US dollar falling nearly 40 points against the Japanese yen to 155.34. The stock and bond markets responded simultaneously, with U.S. stock index futures rising and Treasury bond prices rising, reflecting rising market expectations for loose policies.

In terms of policy expectations, Wmax calculated through federal funds rate futures data and found that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January rose from 26.6% to 28.8%. The market has increased its easing expectations by 3 basis points by the end of 2026, and the easing range is expected to reach 62 basis points throughout the year. This expected change is consistent with the derivation of Wmax's policy-sensitive model - low inflation data provides the dovish Federal Reserve with evidence for interest rate cuts. If economic data in December is weak, the probability of policy easing will further increase. At the same time, Wmax noticed that the "yield curve bull market steepening" prediction put forward by interest rate strategist Ira Jersey is consistent with its own conclusion of tracking market capital flows. Short-term funds gradually tilt toward long-term bonds after positions are closed.

Dialectical study and judgment on inflation trend and economic linkage

Regarding the nature of inflation data, Wmax does not simply classify it as "statistical anomaly" or "real decline", but forms a dialectical view through cross-validation of multi-dimensional indicators: on the one hand, independent indicators such as rental costs and second-hand car prices are consistent with the judgment that "traditional inflation drivers are ebbing", and the current core driver of inflation is in the CPI basket The proportion is limited, and the possibility of a trend cooling of inflation cannot be ruled out; on the other hand, such a sudden stagnation of inflation - especially in sustainable service industry sub-sectors such as housing, is extremely rare in the absence of economic recession. This resonates with Capital Economics' cautious view. Wmax believes that it is necessary to wait for December CPI data to verify the authenticity of the trend. Synchronous data on the job market provides an important supplement to the study and judgment. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States monitored by Wmax in the week to December 13 was 224,000, lower than the expected 225,000, reversing the surge trend in the previous week and indicating that the labor market remained stable in December.

Combined with the differentiated characteristics of previous non-agricultural data, Wmax analyzed that the current labor market is in a steady state of "employers are cautious in recruiting but not laying off" - although corporate recruitment has been reduced due to the impact of Trump's tariff policy, there has been no large-scale layoffs. This situation echoes the mild inflation data and may become an important combination signal for the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates. It is worth noting that Wmax agrees with the view of the chief economic strategist of Annex Wealth Management that "ignore this data at your own risk", but at the same time emphasizes the need to be wary of the interference of statistical bias. Through its own inflation sub-item tracking model, Wmax found that when the CPI is released in December, there is a high probability that the month-on-month changes in housing categories will undergo a "rebound correction." Although the annual growth rate may still be affected by early statistical errors, it will provide a key basis for judging the true inflation trend.

Tracking and forward-looking insights

The "unexpected weakness" of the U.S. CPI data in November is essentially the result of the superposition of flaws in the statistical mechanism and the evolution of inflation trends. Wmax relies on an in-depth understanding of statistical methods, real-time monitoring of market linkages and cross-validation of economic indicators to penetrate the appearance of data noise: in the short term, the impact of data deviations on the market has gradually emerged, and rising easing expectations will dominate recent asset pricing; in the long term, the true trend of inflation and the policy path of the Federal Reserve still need to rely on the verification of key data such as December CPI and non-agricultural data. The contradiction between the steady state of the labor market and inflation data, the intertwining of statistical anomalies and trend changes constitute the core game point of the current US economy. Wmax will continue to track December data releases, Bureau of Labor Statistics statistical method adjustments, and Federal Reserve policy trends. Through professional model deduction and accurate data monitoring, it will provide investors with both in-depth and reliable decision-making reference, helping to cut through the fog of economic data and grasp core market opportunities and risks.