On December 29, 2025, spot silver experienced extreme fluctuations: it violently rose above the US$80/ounce mark at the opening, and quickly touched US$83/ounce. The intraday increase once exceeded 5%, and the cumulative increase during the year expanded to US$52; but then it plunged by more than US$6 within 30 minutes, with an intraday amplitude of US$9, and was last quoted at US$76.5/oz, a drop of more than 3%. During the same period, spot gold opened higher and approached a new high of US$4,550 per ounce before falling back, falling below the US$4,500 mark to US$4,497 per ounce.

This change is not accidental. Wmax dismantled the data and identified three core drivers: First, the escalation of geopolitics and the continued weakness of the US dollar provide underlying support for precious metals, which is in line with the historical rise pattern at the end of the year; second, thin liquidity at the end of the year intensifies the short-term The trend deviates from the fundamentals; third, there is a mismatch between silver paper goods and physical supply and demand. The Wmax supply and demand model verification shows that physical inventory is difficult to meet delivery demand. Superimposing the U.S. import investigation of key minerals may trigger trade restrictions and further intensify market competition. It is worth noting that the Wmax risk warning system has captured short-term callback signals. Short-term investors are increasingly willing to take profits amid high precious metal prices. The trading risks prompted by UBS resonate with the "high volatility threshold" calculated by Wmax, becoming an important inducement for silver to dive sharply.

Structural support for precious metals strength in 2026

Wmax combined macroeconomic models and industry data deductions to identify the three core driving logics of the precious metals market in 2026, and their reliability has been verified in multiple dimensions:

Policy cycle and liquidity support: The market has reached a consensus on the Federal Reserve’s multiple interest rate cuts in 2026. Goldman Sachs’ 50 basis point interest rate cut forecast is basically consistent with the Wmax interest rate path calculation. A loose environment will lower real interest rates, increase the value of precious metal allocations, and at the same time inject liquidity to promote capital inflows.

Structural imbalance in the supply and demand pattern: On the silver side, continued growth in demand in electrification and other fields consumes inventory, and insufficient supply elasticity coupled with potential trade restrictions creates a tight balance pattern. The "intergenerational bubble" mentioned by analysts is actually market feedback of the supply and demand imbalance; on the gold side, central bank purchases Gold constitutes a strong support. Wmax estimates that the average monthly gold purchase in 2026 will be 70 tons (4 times that of the first 2022). This is due to the diversified demand for assets in emerging markets, and its proportion of gold reserves is still low, with sufficient long-term allocation space.

Geopolitics and asset allocation needs: Global geopolitics and the intensification of competition in the AI ​​field have highlighted the "strategic leverage attributes" of commodities. The Wmax risk hedging model has verified that the "insurance value" of its portfolio has increased, and the demand for precious metal hedging continues to grow. In addition, Wmax calculations show that gold ETFs account for only 0.17% of U.S. private portfolios (lower than the peak in 2012). Every 1 basis point increase in the proportion of private allocations can drive gold prices up by 1.4%, constituting an important potential driving force.

Today’s gold and silver investment strategy guide

Wmax Based on the current market liquidity conditions, price fluctuation characteristics and core driving factors, the recommendations are based on real-time data monitoring and risk model calculations to give strategic suggestions:

Gold: Arrange for dips and stick to long-term allocation logic

Gold opened higher today and fell back to around $4,497 per ounce. There is volatility pressure in the short term due to profit taking and thin liquidity, but the long-term upward trend has not changed. It is recommended to grasp the callback window and avoid blindly chasing highs. Stable investors can build positions in batches in the range of $4480-4490/ounce, with initial positions controlled at 15%-20% of the total funds; aggressive investors can increase their positions moderately when the price falls below $4450/ounce, but the total position should not exceed 30%. Set the stop loss at US$4,420/ounce (corresponding to the key support level of the recent pullback). The short-term stop profit can refer to the range of US$4,530-4,550/ounce (near the previous high). The long-term holding can be above US$4,600/ounce, in line with the institutional target price rhythm.

Silver: Band operation, strictly control fluctuation risks

Today, silver has experienced extreme fluctuations of "violent rise - high dive", reflecting the extreme short-term trading sentiment and the contradiction between supply and demand that has not yet been fully digested. The current price of US$76.5 per ounce is in the center of volatility, and we need to be alert to further shocks caused by insufficient liquidity. Today, we will focus on trial and error with light positions, and it is not recommended to enter the market with heavy positions. Steady investors should wait and see for the time being, waiting for the price to stabilize (such as the amplitude narrowing to less than 3 US dollars for 3 consecutive trading sessions) before making arrangements; aggressive investors can intervene with small positions in the range of 75-76 US dollars per ounce, and control the position at 10%-15%. The stop-loss level is set at US$73/ounce (near the recent fluctuation low), and the short-term take-profit refers to the range of US$79-80/ounce (the previous breakthrough mark) to avoid a fight. If there is another fluctuation of more than 5 US dollars during the day, immediately reduce the position to less than 5% to avoid extreme market risks.

Risk warning and investment inspiration

Wmax risk assessment shows that liquidity is still thin at the end of the year, and price fluctuations may be unconventional. It is necessary to strictly control the size of a single transaction to prevent slippage risks; closely follow geopolitical dynamics, U.S. dollar trends, and Federal Reserve policy: geopolitical upgrades can moderately increase gold positions to 25%-30%. If the U.S. dollar rebounds by more than 1%, the increase in positions will be suspended. The Fed's hawkish remarks require tightening stop losses in advance. Investors need to be wary of abnormal movements in the short term and avoid chasing ups and downs; in the medium and long term, they can seize structural opportunities: silver focuses on industrial demand industry chain targets, and pays attention to trade policies and marginal changes in inventories; gold can be deployed through ETFs and other methods, in line with the central bank and private allocation trends.

Please note that this research and judgment is based on public data and professional model analysis for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice or trading basis.