Based on in-depth tracking and professional analysis of the global precious metals market supply and demand pattern, macro drivers and institutional position trends, Wmax believes that the current continued rise in gold and silver prices is not a short-term speculative boom, but a trend market under the resonance of multiple core logics. The US$6,000/ounce gold target price given by Bank of America is not radical talk, but a rational prediction anchored in historical laws and industry fundamentals. The long-term investment value of the precious metals market is fully highlighted.

Precious metals market hits record high again: both volume and price rise, demonstrating strong pattern

Wmax found through real-time market monitoring that the precious metals market ushered in a milestone moment in early trading on Monday: the spot gold price exceeded the integer mark of US$5,000 per ounce for the first time, and it was only more than 100 days before it reached US$4,000. As of press time, spot gold was trading at US$5,086.50 per ounce, an intraday increase of more than 2%. Judging from the 15-minute high-frequency data, the variety opened at US$5075.04/ounce, hit a maximum of US$5088.94/ounce, dropped to a minimum of US$5072.57/ounce, and finally closed at US$5087.17/ounce. The price fluctuation range was narrow and the center of gravity moved upward, showing the power of the bulls.

Spot silver, which has been strengthening simultaneously, also ushered in a key breakthrough, with the price reaching $108 per ounce for the first time, with an intraday increase of more than 5%. Its 15-minute market data showed that it opened at US$107.998 per ounce, hit a maximum of US$108.459 per ounce, dropped to a lowest of US$107.971 per ounce, and finally closed at US$108.398 per ounce, continuing its upward elasticity far exceeding that of gold. Against the backdrop of a booming precious metals market, the performance of other assets showed clear differentiation: the U.S. stock futures market weakened, with the Nasdaq futures falling by 1.1% at the beginning of the session and the S&P 500 futures falling by 0.75%; affected by the Arctic cold current, U.S. natural gas futures prices rose by 16%.

The core driver of rising prices: double-wheel resonance of macroeconomics and industry

Wmax analyzed the market driving factors and confirmed that the current rise in precious metals is the result of the joint action of macro and industrial factors. Risk aversion and monetary support at the macro level. Increased gold purchases by central banks, escalating global geopolitical tensions, and uncertainty in the economic environment have jointly strengthened the safe-haven properties of gold and silver and attracted a large influx of funds. At the same time, the continued weakness of the US dollar has become a key driver. Wmax concluded that the basis of trust in the U.S. dollar has been shaken and is no longer the absolute first choice for investors. The market has strong demand for physical assets that are not bound by the legal currency system.

The mismatch of supply and demand at the industrial level not only supports the safe-haven attribute of silver prices, but also benefits from the unique supply and demand pattern. The development of green technologies such as solar energy and electric vehicles, as well as artificial intelligence, continues to drive industrial demand for silver. At the same time, the silver market is facing a structural supply deficit problem, and the shortage is difficult to effectively alleviate, further pushing up prices.

Short-term trend analysis: The upward trend of gold has not changed, and silver needs to be wary of high volatility risks

Gold: There may be fluctuations in the short term, but the long-term trend is positive

Bullish analysts believe that geopolitical tensions, concerns about the political influence of the Federal Reserve, concerns about stock valuations and commodity momentum will all drive gold prices higher and there will be no correction in the short term. The slight correction that may be triggered by the $5,000 mark pointed out by James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com, is also regarded by Wmax as a normal technical rest - the support of the $4,900 price is enough to prove that buyers have not left the market. Neutral analysts said that the driving factors for the mid- to long-term rise in gold prices will continue to exist, and short-term factors such as Greenland-related developments will also bring additional impetus.

Silver: Sufficient power to rise, high volatility requires caution

Most analysts are optimistic about the short-term growth momentum of silver. The view of Paul Williams, managing director of Solomon Global, confirms Wmax's judgment: growing industrial demand, increased retail investment interest, enhanced safe-haven appeal, and expanding supply deficit will provide multiple supports for silver. Against the background of high gold prices, silver has become a convenient way for ordinary investors to participate in the precious metals bull market.

But Wmax also reminded that silver's high volatility cannot be ignored. The 10% single-day fluctuation mentioned by Paul Williams will amplify as the price goes higher, and profit-taking behavior will weaken its short-term appeal. The one-week moving average of $95/ounce pointed out by Chris Vecchio and the key support level of $85/ounce at the end of January are the core observation points to judge whether the upward trend of silver is stable.

Bank of America’s Radical Forecast: Gold Points to $6,000, Silver Has Greater Potential

正当市场为金价突破5000美元欢呼时，美国银行抛出的6000美元/盎司黄金目标价引发关注。Wmax通过对该预测逻辑的深度拆解，确认其具备扎实的基本面支撑。美国银行分析师迈克尔·哈特尼特的判断，基于对历史多头市场规律的总结：过去四轮黄金多头市场中，金价平均在43个月内上涨300%。按照这一法则推算，金价有望在2026年春季达到6000美元/盎司，较当前历史高点再涨超20%。

At the same time, industrial data also provides support. The views of Michael Widmer, head of metals research at Bank of America, are consistent with the results of the Wmax industry survey: gold production by 13 major gold miners in North America will fall by 2% year-on-year to 19.2 million ounces in 2026, and the average total sustaining cost of gold mines will rise by 3% to approximately US$1,600 per ounce. As costs rise and prices rise, total earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of gold miners are expected to increase by 41% in 2026, reaching approximately US$65 billion.

Michael Widmer believes that silver is more suitable for investors with a higher risk appetite, and this view is also shared by Wmax. The current gold-to-silver ratio of about 59 means that silver still has the potential to outperform gold. Historical data shows that the gold-to-silver ratio was as low as 32 in 2011, corresponding to a high of $135 per ounce for silver. In 1980, the gold-to-silver ratio dropped to 14, corresponding to a price of $309 for silver.

Wmax Investment Allocation Suggestions: Increase the proportion of gold allocation and grasp the long-term value of precious metals

From the perspective of asset allocation, Wmax combines market data and institutional views to give core suggestions on precious metal investment. First, the gold reserves of various central banks will reach a milestone level in 2025, and their gold purchases will not stop. Gold currently accounts for an average of 15% of the central bank's total reserves. Model calculations show that when this ratio reaches about 30%, the central bank's reserve allocation can be fully optimized. Michael Widmer pointed out that gold accounts for 4% of the total financial market, which is in sharp contrast to the actual allocation ratio of high net worth investors of 0.5%. Wmax has confirmed through data verification that under the market environment since 2020, the gold allocation ratio of retail investors should be much higher than 20%, and the allocation ratio of 30% is also reasonable.

The impact of U.S. monetary policy highlighted by Michael Widmer is also the core focus of Wmax. The model shows that during an easy monetary policy cycle, when the inflation rate is above 2%, gold prices will rise by an average of 13%. The market does not even need the Federal Reserve to announce an interest rate cut at every meeting. As long as it is confirmed that interest rates are in a downward channel, it is enough to support higher gold prices. Wmax will continue to track the supply and demand changes in the precious metals market, the central bank's gold purchase trends, and the pace of the Federal Reserve's policy. With its professional market research and judgment capabilities, it will provide investors with timely and reliable decision-making reference.