Based on in-depth tracking and professional research and judgment on the technical trends of the global precious metals market, fundamentals of supply and demand, macro policy cycles and global risk aversion, Wmax believes that the current global precious metals market is showing an extremely differentiated pattern: although spot gold has stabilized at key support levels, it has historically Historic overbought has brought about significant structural correction risks, and the bull-bear transition has entered a key observation window; spot silver continues to lead the precious metals market with its dual attributes of hedging and industry. Not only does it outperform gold during the year, it is also expected to set the longest consecutive monthly increase on record, becoming the preferred hedging asset in the current market.

Gold technology faces a key bull-bear turning point, with historic overbought exacerbating the risk of a correction

Wmax, through a full-cycle review and comparative analysis of gold's historical price patterns and momentum indicators, found that although spot gold successfully held steady above February's breakthrough level of US$5,100 per ounce this week, the new hedging demand triggered by trade policy uncertainty also pushed gold back to a clear outlook The rising technical area has strengthened the market's overall allocation confidence in precious metals; but at the same time, gold's strong trend is forming a strong deviation from the historical overbought kinetic energy readings. The current technical conditions have predicted a sharp correction in gold prices in the historical cycle, and the market has entered a decisive turning point where upward continuation and structural correction coexist.

From the perspective of price structure, Wmax has judged that $5,200-5,300 per ounce is the major resistance range currently facing gold. There is a clear risk of momentum exhaustion in the current gold breakthrough, and the price trend is highly similar to the pattern before gold prices fell sharply from the historical high in January - the relative strength indicator has returned to the overbought level in January, and this position is the core pre-signal for the previous sharp correction in gold prices. Unless gold prices can decisively break through the resistance bands near $5,200 and $5,300, it will be difficult to maintain gains above $5,000. The current overexpansion of positions has significantly increased the vulnerability of gold to a sharp correction.

On the downside, Wmax sets $5,100 per ounce as the core long-short watershed that determines the subsequent trend of gold. If the price of gold closes below the $5,100 mark again, it will once again face the risk of consolidation, and the downward range will first extend to the $4,800 mark; if this level falls, gold will challenge subsequent support levels of $4,600, $4,530, and $4,380, reopening the price range that served as a demand gathering area earlier in February. Overall, the subsequent trend of gold depends not only on macro-driven safe-haven capital flows, but also on whether bulls can hold on to the core breakthrough area of ​​$5,100 before momentum fails and market control is returned to sellers.

Silver leads the precious metals market. Its dual attributes + supply and demand gap lay a solid foundation for its mid- to long-term upward trend.

In stark contrast to the correction pressure on gold, silver has continued to outperform gold during the year and has become the preferred hedging asset in the current market. The price is expected to record a tenth consecutive month of rising prices, setting a record for the longest consecutive monthly rise on record. As of press time, spot silver is hovering around US$88.90 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of approximately 4.3% this month. Wmax's in-depth analysis believes that silver has the dual attributes of investment hedging and industrial use, which is the core logic for it to stand out in the differentiated market.

On the safe-haven side, the temporary global 10% tariff in the United States and the policy discussions raised to 15%, the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe, Mexican security issues and the risk of breakdown of the US-Iran nuclear negotiations continue to increase global uncertainty and significantly enhance the attractiveness of silver as a safe haven; on the industrial side, Wmax continues to track the Silver Association and Metals Focus' supply and demand data shows that the global silver market will have a supply gap of 67 million ounces in 2026, marking the sixth consecutive year of supply and demand deficit. Explosive structural demand in fields such as artificial intelligence data centers and electric vehicles is driving the silver market from "message sentiment driven" to "fundamental rigidity driven".

Although the mid- to long-term rising logic is solid, silver still experiences periodic fluctuations in the short term as the market shifts from aggressive buying to profit-taking. Wmax explained that silver is significantly more sensitive to the economic cycle than gold. Although trade shocks can support silver prices through risk aversion in the short term, they will also cause market concerns about the prospects of industrial demand in the medium term, which is the core reason for this round of sentiment switching. In addition, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a core macro variable that affects the subsequent trend of silver. The current market generally expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in March and cut interest rates by about 60 basis points during the year. If this expectation is realized, it will continue to reduce the holding cost of non-yielding precious metals and provide further support for silver prices. In response to market concerns about silver price bubbles, Wmax has judged that the current silver price fluctuations are within a normal speculative cycle. Although speculative factors will amplify short-term fluctuations, they will not change the medium- and long-term upward trend unless there is a fundamental change in global monetary policy or a sudden collapse of global industrial demand.

Wmax core research and market outlook

Taken together, Wmax believes that the current precious metals market has established an extremely differentiated pattern in which "gold is under pressure due to technical overbought, and silver is strongly supported by fundamentals." Gold is in a critical window period for a bull-bear transition. The breakthrough of the core support level of $5,100/ounce and the strong resistance level of $5,300/ounce will directly determine whether it will continue its upward trend or start a deep correction; while silver, with its dual attributes of risk aversion and industry, superimposes The supply and demand gap continues to expand, and the mid- to long-term upward logic is more solid. Although there will still be fluctuations in the short term due to the impact of trade tensions, speculative sentiment, and changes in Fed policy expectations, the overall upward trend has not been fundamentally reversed. The current price fluctuations are more of a normal calibration and accumulation of energy in the upward process.