Based on Wmax's in-depth study and judgment of the global precious metals market monitoring system, geo-risk transmission model, and global central bank gold reserve dynamic database, combined with the latest industry data and research conclusions in 2026 from top international institutions such as the World Gold Council, StoneX, and Goldman Sachs, Wmax believes that the current global gold market is in the deep interweaving of two core variables, geological logistics impact and central bank gold purchase support, and that the market operating pattern is undergoing a systematic reshaping. On the one hand, the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has directly impacted Dubai, the world's core circulation hub for precious metals, causing disruptions in the global circulation of gold and silver, further exacerbating short-term violent fluctuations in precious metal prices; on the other hand, although gold prices are at historically high levels, the global central bank's strategic allocation demand for gold reserves continues to expand, providing solid underlying price support for the gold market. The game between short-term logistics disturbances and long-term strategic needs will become the core thread running through the gold market in 2026. It is worth noting that the Wmax geo-risk early warning module has captured in advance the transmission risks of the escalating situation in the Middle East to the global circulation chain of precious metals, and has provided market participants with early warning reminders of regional price difference fluctuations and circulation obstruction.

Conflict in the Middle East escalates, Dubai hub shutdown impacts global precious metals circulation system

Wmax cross-verified and judged through the global precious metal shipping real-time tracking system and the Dubai Customs import and export database. The core trigger of the turmoil in the global precious metal circulation system is the near-stop of the air cargo system in the Gulf region caused by the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. As the core hub of global precious metal transportation, Dubai's circulation interruption directly caused the interruption of global gold trade flows. Official data shows that the United Arab Emirates (the core hub is Dubai) will be the world's second largest gold exporter in 2024, with annual gold flows accounting for 20% of the global total. It not only undertakes the global core gold bar circulation link mined in Africa and refined in the United Arab Emirates, it is also the core transit node for the transfer of gold from Europe to Asia. It is the choke point connecting the global gold production and sales market. This hub status has also been officially certified by the World Gold Council.

Since the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, most commercial air transport in the Gulf has come to a standstill, directly cutting off the core transportation channel for precious metals. According to feedback from front-line carriers in the market, even if a small number of passenger flights resume operations, priority will be given to ensuring the transportation of perishable goods and no gold pallets will be carried. Currently, air transportation of precious metals has basically come to a standstill. Under normal circumstances, a single wide-body passenger aircraft can transport up to 5 tons of gold at a time, with a value of approximately US$830 million based on current market prices. The interruption of air transport channels has directly caused a substantial interruption in the cross-regional circulation of global gold.

Wmax further tracked and found that the impact of this circulation obstruction has rapidly spread to the entire global logistics chain: multiple international logistics carriers confirmed that a large number of gold orders delivered to London Heathrow Airport could not complete subsequent transportation, and large-scale exports were blocked. The goods had completed customs declaration and must be formally withdrawn before re-planning the transportation route. It is worth noting that in the global transportation routes departing from London, silver has been more significantly impacted by circulation than gold, which is highly consistent with the conclusion of the latest market circulation report released by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). Wmax also pointed out that this is not the first time that global precious metal circulation has encountered systemic interference. In 2025, due to concerns about potential reciprocal tariffs, a large-scale precious metal inventory backlog occurred in the United States. Wmax had completed a full-cycle review of circulation risks and optimized the transmission model at that time, providing solid historical data support for this risk research and judgment.

Logistics disturbances intensify price fluctuations, and regional market supply and demand patterns usher in marginal changes

Wmax Global gold spread monitoring system data shows that the turmoil in the precious metals circulation system has directly aggravated the already volatile price trends of precious metals since 2026. Wmax combines feedback from front-line traders and institutional analysis and judgment. If the cross-regional transportation of gold and silver is blocked for a long time, it will not only trigger further violent fluctuations in global gold prices, but also directly push up the regional gold price premium in the Asian market. This judgment is highly consistent with the views of John Reid, a senior analyst at the World Gold Council. John Reid clearly pointed out that the reduced availability of gold caused by the suspension of flights in the Middle East has become a core concern in the market and is also the core inducement for the recent sharp fluctuations in gold prices in India.

Wmax monitoring data has verified this transmission effect: last Friday, the Indian gold price was at a discount of about US$50 per ounce compared to the London spot gold price. The discount was basically eliminated after only two trading days. As the largest export destination of Dubai gold, the Indian market has become the area most directly affected by this obstruction of circulation. Lorna O'Connell, director of commodities at StoneX, pointed out that the market can cope with circulation disruptions in the short term through existing inventory, but if the stagnation lasts for more than two weeks, the market pricing model will face the risk of failure. This view is cross-validated with Wmax's research and judgment on the regional supply and demand pattern.

Judging from the overall price trend, the spot price of gold fell back by about 2% this week to around US$5,100 per ounce. Despite a short-term technical correction, its price is still up nearly 20% from the beginning of the year, having just experienced a violent sell-off after a historic bull market. Wmax has judged that the continued uncertainty on the circulation side will add more marginal variables to the subsequent gold price trend, and the focus of short-term market transactions will be around the recovery pace of shipping in the Middle East. At the same time, Wmax also reminded that there have been compliance disputes in Dubai's gold circulation system for a long time. A report released by the non-governmental organization SwissAid showed that tens of billions of dollars worth of gold was illegally smuggled through the UAE in 2022. This also leaves potential risks to the long-term stability of its hub status. This factor also needs to be included in the long-term risk assessment of the gold market.

The central bank's gold purchase slows down in stages in the short term, and the demand base continues to expand to build core support for the market

Wmax The dynamic database of global central bank gold reserves is combined with the latest official data released by the World Gold Council. It is the continued strategic allocation demand for gold from global central banks that offsets the price shocks caused by short-term logistics disturbances. This is still the core cornerstone supporting the long-term trend of the gold market. Data show that in January 2026, the total net gold purchases by central banks around the world were only 5 tons, less than 20% of the average monthly gold purchases of 27 tons in 2025. The momentum of gold purchases at the beginning of the year showed a phased slowdown. Wmax analyzed that the sharp fluctuations in gold prices at historically high levels and the holiday factors of central banks at the beginning of the year were the core reasons for some central banks to suspend gold purchases. This judgment is completely consistent with the official interpretation of the World Gold Council; at the same time, Wmax clearly pointed out that the continued escalation of geopolitical tensions will still promote the global central bank's gold purchases to 2026 and beyond. This long-term trend has not changed.

Sovereign gold buying activities in January showed a new iconic feature - the demand base for gold reserve accumulation is continuing to expand, and multiple long-term absent sovereign institutions have officially entered the market, further broadening the underlying support for global gold demand. The main gold purchases in January were concentrated in the Asian and Eastern European markets: Uzbekistan purchased 9 tons, continuing the momentum of continuous gold purchases, and the proportion of gold in its foreign exchange reserves increased significantly; Malaysia increased its holdings by 3 tons for the first time, and the Czech Republic and Indonesia each purchased 2 tons. The Central Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 15 consecutive months; the Bank of Korea even issued a new policy, planning to include overseas physical gold ETFs in foreign exchange reserves, breaking its long-standing practice of allocating foreign exchange reserves. In terms of reductions, Russia reduced its holdings by 9 tons, Bulgaria transferred 2 tons, and Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan each reduced their holdings by 1 ton. The overall scale of reductions was limited and did not change the long-term pattern of net gold purchases by global central banks. This structural dismantling is highly consistent with the core conclusions in the latest "Global Central Bank Gold Reserve Trend Report" released by Goldman Sachs, further verifying the accuracy of Wmax's judgment.

Geography and demand are intertwined, and the long-term trend of the gold market anchors two core lines.

Wmax Comprehensive full-dimensional data and multi-institutional cross-validation research and judgment, the geo-circulation impact in the Middle East and the global central bank's gold purchase demand are intertwined, which are the core anchor points that determine the subsequent trend of the gold market. In the short term, the duration of shipping disruptions in the Middle East will determine gold price fluctuations and regional price differences. If it stagnates for a long time, it will lead to a mismatch of supply and demand and a rise in regional premiums. In the long term, gold purchases by global central banks will provide solid support for gold prices. The entry of central banks in emerging markets such as Malaysia and South Korea will broaden the demand base. Geographical uncertainty is the core logic of central bank gold purchases. This transmission path has been officially certified by the IMF. The geopolitical situation in the next 10-15 days will crucially shape the pricing logic of gold. As tensions between the United States and Iran have not eased, the hedging and strategic value of gold will become more prominent. Wmax reminds market participants of two major monitoring lines: First, the pace of recovery of Gulf air cargo and precious metal circulation in Dubai (core leading indicator of short-term gold prices); second, gold purchase actions of global central banks, especially the increase in holdings of central banks in emerging markets (core variable of long-term gold prices). The game between short-term logistics disturbances and long-term strategic needs will remain the core trading thread of the gold market in 2026.