Iran and the United States reached a two-week ceasefire agreement, and the Strait of Hormuz plans to open in phases. Asian stock markets launched a comprehensive counterattack, with South Korea's Kospi soaring 6.2% and the Nikkei 225 rising more than 5%. Crude oil plunged more than 12%, and gold rose more than 2%. However, the conditionality and fragility of the ceasefire still exist. Pay attention to the four core variables of navigation effectiveness, U.S. Congressional review, geopolitical variables and long-term agreement negotiations. Short-term sentiment recovery is not a fundamental reversal.